The Moonshot: Wild-card sleepers, trade deadline rumors and more
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
1. With the MLB All-Star Game officially behind us, which under-the-radar Wild Card team do you expect to make an Arizona Diamondbacks-like second-half run?
Terrence Jordan: Why not go with the Diamondbacks again? Nobody seems to be talking about last year’s World Series runner-up, but Arizona has gone 8-3 in its last 11 to climb to within one game of the final National League Wild Card spot. Only two teams are truly out of contention in the N.L., but last year’s run has given the Diamondbacks the experience needed to push their way through the crowd and return to the postseason. Ketel Marte has six hits and three homers in his last three games, Christian Walker is poised for a big second half after being snubbed for the All-Star team, and Jordan Montgomery finally looked good in his first start back from the injured list. We haven’t seen the end of Snakes Alive yet.
Cody Williams: Never shying away from unabashed bias, give me the Boston Red Sox. Though the post-All-Star break start has been less than ideal, all indications from the Alex Cora extension are that Craig Breslow is going to have the Sox as buyers at the trade deadline, most likely supplementing the rotation and bullpen with perhaps the addition of a right-handed bat. Beyond that, Triston Casas is also nearing his return – perhaps sooner than expected given some updates around the All-Star break – and adding another elite bat to the lineup. It’s been an uneven season at times for Boston but we’ve seen them get hot and tackle series wins against the likes of the Phillies and Yankees, among others. So why not imagine them also getting hot down the stretch and into the postseason?
Robert Murray: I was asked about this on The Baseball Insiders and went with the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’ll have both Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez back in the second half. Corbin Carroll figures to be better in the second half than he was in the first half. Their manager, Torey Lovullo, is among the best in baseball and should benefit from the Diamondbacks buying at the deadline. I’m buying stock. They feel like the team to watch.
Zachary Rotman: This would’ve been insane to say in mid-May when the St. Louis Cardinals were 15-24, but they’ve gone 38-25 since, and are just 0.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot. Their offense has continued to improve as the season has progressed with players like Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras, and Brendan Donovan leading the way, but just imagine Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado showing up? They recently got Lars Nootbaar back too, and Tommy Edman isn’t far behind. Ryan Helsley is arguably the best closer in the game, leading a formidable bullpen. Just imagine how good they can be if John Mozeliak acquires a No. 2 starter. If they get that done, the Cardinals have the pieces to make a run.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders Podcast, and join the discord to get the inside scoop as we near the July 30 MLB trade deadline.
2. Name one player who hasn’t been named in rumors, but ought to be on the chopping block (and explain why). Side note: What do you have against them, you monster?
Terrence Jordan: I need somebody to explain to me why the Tigers would even entertain the notion of trading Tarik Skubal. He’s on track to win the A.L. Cy Young, he’s 27 years old, and he’s under team control for two more years. Seriously, he might be the best pitcher in baseball! What kind of timeline are the Tigers on? If you’re going to blow it up, you might as well also trade Riley Greene, who has emerged as one of the best young power-hitting outfielders in the game. I haven’t heard Greene’s name in trade talks, but if we’re tearing it all down, let’s do it big. In reality, the Tigers should build around both of their young stars with the idea of competing as soon as next year. Stay quiet at the deadline, maybe trade a veteran or two for a younger piece that is almost major league ready, and gear up for a playoff push in 2025.
Cody Williams: Perhaps I’m just a sick person but why exactly are the Angels not putting Mike Trout on the trade block? Look, I understand that his recent injury history combined with his contract makes him perhaps the least desirable he’s been in his entire career as an asset. At the same time, there’s a sucker in every room – especially when that proverbial room is 29 other general managers, many of whom would probably get wide-eyed and giddy if they knew their club had the opportunity to land Mike Trout. Frankly, Trout deserves to be freed from the doldrums that the Halos have chained him to and I want to see one of the best players in baseball when healthy play on a team with an actual chance of seeing the postseason in any real immediate future.
Robert Murray: Mason Miller. The A’s should absolutely trade the star closer. After all, they are years away from being a playoff team. He’s way more valuable to a contending team than he is on a mediocre A’s team, especially with five years of control. Trading him would replenish their farm system and expedite the rebuild. Yet the asking price for Miller, according to one source, has been “egregious.” All indications are that Miller will stay put and, truthfully, I think that’s a mistake.
Zachary Rotman: What’s the plan north of the border? I know the Toronto Blue Jays want to compete in 2025, but how realistically is that going to happen? They’ll be selling at this year’s deadline. They play in a brutal division that seemingly only gets better every year. Their rotation is older and has regressed. Their farm system is very subpar. Barring a ton of money being spent, it’s hard to see their vision of not only being better than they have this season, but seriously competing in 2025. Knowing that, why not trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a free agent after 2025, while his value is extremely high in what’s being described as a seller’s market? If there was hope for an extension being reached I’d understand the counterargument, but nothing has been reported suggesting that anything is close on that front. Sure, keep him if you don’t get the haul you should, but it sounds like the Jays aren’t even entertaining it, which would be a mistake.
3. Which likely MLB trade deadline seller gave up on their season too soon? And which buyer is living on a prayer, minus the Bon Jovi?
Terrence Jordan: The Cubs have announced their intentions to be trade deadline sellers, but they’re far from out of the race. Maybe I’m still blinded by the first month of the season, but I can’t believe that this team that started with so much promise is actually only better than three other N.L. teams. It’s a stunning spot to be in after wooing Craig Counsell from the Brewers and striking gold with Shota Imanaga. On the other side, I feel like we’ve seen this story from the Padres before. San Diego has traded away enough prospects (Trea Turner, CJ Abrams, and Mackenzie Gore, to name a few) in the name of win-now moves that it could have one of the best teams in baseball if GM AJ Preller hadn’t lived by Bon Jovi’s words (It’s my life, it’s now or never, I don’t wanna live forever) at seemingly every trade deadline. The Padres will probably look to add again sometime in the next week, but eventually, that bill is going to be due.
Cody Williams: Much in the same vein as Terrence with the Cubs, I look at the San Francisco Giants and wonder why they’re being widely considered a seller at this point. Yes, they are five games below .500 but their pitching staff is about to get healthier (we just saw Robbie Ray come out and embarrass the Dodgers) and a few additions could vault a team only 5.5 games back of the Padres for the final NL Wild Card spot even further into that mix instead of selling players, even short-term options, like Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and others. On the flip side, we’ll stay in the NL West and join Terrence in mentioning the Padres. It’s Preller’s M.O. at this point, so we shouldn’t expect anything different. However, the optics of the team that traded away Juan Soto before the start of the season now buying aggressively again are not ones that would sit right with me as a fan.
Robert Murray: I really want to go with the Texas Rangers here, but there aren’t strong indications on what they will do … yet. So at this point, I feel like all the likely sellers are teams that should sell. The Cubs have shown nothing to warrant buying at the trade deadline. While the Giants are getting Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb back, they have inspired little confidence to suggest that a bounce back is on the horizon.
Zachary Rotman: I’m going to agree with Terrence by saying the Cubs, but for a different reason. What exactly are they going to sell? Barring moving guys like Nico Hoerner or Seiya Suzuki, what do the Cubs have to offer? Most of the players you might envision them selling are very overpaid and/or underperforming. If they don’t have sellable pieces, why not go the other way and try to at the very least bolster the bullpen and see what happens? They’re only 5.5 games back as of this writing. On the flip side, it’s hard to disagree with the Padres pick from Terrence and Cody. They’ve shown a willingness to make the big move, which is awesome, but where can a big deal at this year’s deadline realistically get them? Would anyone pick them to beat teams like the Dodgers and Phillies in October even with a big add? Assuming they do fall short, that means more prospects were dealt for a player who didn’t get them over the hump when it matters most. And as Cody mentioned, seeing Preller continue to make these big deals after trading away Juan Soto would not sit well with me if I were a Padres fan.
Robert Murray rumor mill:
- Even after acquiring Hunter Harvey, the Royals remain on the lookout for bullpen help, per sources.
- Keep an eye on the Brewers potentially trading a low-end bullpen piece in the coming days.
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