The Sentry 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

At long last (or, you know, after a couple of weeks), the PGA Tour is back in our lives. And as golf fans have grown familiar with in recent years, we're heading to Maui and The Plantation Course at Kapalua for The Sentry, which will be the first signature event and tournament overall of the 2024 season and the first event of the new calendar year as well.

The new PGA Tour schedule and format for the FedEx Cup means we start with a 59-player field with Rory McIlroy being the lone eligible player who won't be teeing it up at The Sentry 2024. Jon Rahm, who won the tournament after a Collin Morikawa collapse last season, also won't be competing after his decision in December to join LIV Golf. But the field remains loaded at one of the most intriguing courses in golf.

Kapalua is a great equalizer off of the tee. Despite being one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour schedule, the undulation and substantial width of the fairways ultimately lead to driving distance not being the advantage or disadvantage to the degree it often is week-to-week. Thus, short approach play along with the ability to score extremely low is of the utmost importance (you may want to find someone who can get hot with the putter for that too).

So where does that leave us? Let's start the year off with winners, y'all. It's time for our The Sentry 2024 picks and best bets, restarting our One and Done and our betting record. We'll start with our Top 10 and outright picks before going even deeper on the odds board.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024: 0-0-0 (+25.796 units in 2023)

PGA Tour expert picks for The Sentry: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 Pick for The Sentry 2024: Tom Kim (+225, DraftKings)

Tom Kim finished fifth at this tournament last year despite actually starting the 2023 calendar overall in disappointing form. But complete with his fall win at the Shriners, we've seen the young stud return to his form. At a course where length off of the tee is not necessarily a hampering attribute, that immensely favors Kim, but especially so given than he's been dialed on approach and has recaptured magic with the putter, gaining 0.81 and 0.74 strokes over his last 20 rounds, respectively. Asking him to finish in the Top 10 here again when he's in that kind of form feels like a solid bet.

Outright Pick for The Sentry 2024 (0.5 Units): Ludvig Åberg (+1400)

Let me go ahead and kill any drama for you -- you'll be seeing a lot of Ludvig Åberg in these PGA Tour expert picks throughout the year. He leads this field in total strokes gained over the last 20 rounds and, while his greatest strength with the driver is somewhat diminished here, the rest of his game has been phenomenal. Moreover, he's finished no worse than T14 in any of his eight starts since the Wyndham Championship, including two wins (one in Europe, one at the RSM Classic) and not including being on the winning Ryder Cup side. Though I like some guys ahead of him on the odds board, I think there's value with the way Åberg is playing to bet him at this number to win.

One and Done Pick for The Sentry: Collin Morikawa

Oftentimes, you'll see me take my outright pick (if available) for One and Done. I'm pivoting from that with some early strategy, though. With this being a signature event with a big purse, I'm not afraid to utilize an elite player at The Sentry. At the same time, though, I have big hopes for Åberg in the entirety of the season, the same of which isn't entirely true for Collin Morikawa. Given his second-place finish here and no finish worse than T7 in four starts at Kapalua, though, he has the high floor to start this OAD season off right.

The Sentry picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Eric Cole to finish Top 20 at The Sentry (+140)

Eric Cole seemingly plays every week, but he also just reels off one great finish after another. He has four Top 5 finishes in his last five starts and Kapalua appears to be a place that should suit him. The wide fairways will mitigate his squirrely inaccuracy off of the tee, which is his biggest weakness right now. That will put him in the short grass to take advantage of his approach play, wherein he's gaining 1.14 strokes over the last 20 rounds. If he can get hot with the putter (he's gaining 0.20 strokes on the green over that span), a Top 20 finish at plus odds is something I'm heavily interested in.

Brian Harman to finish Top 20 at The Sentry (+110)

Have we reached a point since The Open Championship where Brian Harman is underrated again? It's entirely possible. He certainly hasn't played a ton and his form has been uncharacteristic, particularly on approach, but we saw him find a little bit of juice at the Hero World Challenge. With his putter and ability to score and what we know he can do with his wedges, especially when his short driving numbers aren't a big negative factor, a Top 20 play is a nice little gamble on the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year.

Ludvig Åberg to finish Top 10 at The Sentry (+140)

Back to Ludvig, we're going to double-up on him and take plus money for him to finish in the Top 10. This isn't a lack of confidence that he can win because I full-heartedly believe in the Swede's ability to get his second career PGA Tour victory. At the same time, though, let's protect ourselves from him having a great week and not coming out all the way on top with this play at a course that should ultimately suit the effort he's been putting forth of late.

Longshot Pick to win The Sentry (0.1 Units): Matt Wallace (+15000)

We're going way down the board for a longshot and taking the fiery Matt Wallace. It feels like the Englishman is a tad forgettable at times, but he's been playing some terrific golf of late. His driving woes shouldn't hurt him at The Sentry, which allows him to take advantage of gaining 0.69 strokes on approach and 0.84 strokes with the putter over the last 20 rounds. I love for him to show up well and, at these odds, he's worth a sprinkle to win outright.