The Whiteboard: Can Tyrese Maxey solve the 76ers' James Harden problem?

The trade demands of James Harden and Damian Lillard are the last major unresolved issues from the NBA offseason and neither seems to be drawing to a close. The Philadelphia 76ers seem to be signaling a willingness to keep Harden on the roster to begin the season. Harden, for his part, has accused Daryl Morey of lying to him, sparking an NBA investigation, and has made clear he doesn't plan to play for the 76ers again.

From the 76ers' perspective, there are two likely outcomes here. The first is that they don't find a trade and Harden reuses to report meaning they roll into next season with their roster as is. The second is that they accept 30 cents on the dollar (something like Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum and a draft pick or two) in a trade just to end the situation.

In either case, the 76ers will be looking at their current roster to replace Harden's offensive production which could put a lot on the shoulders of Tyrese Maxey.

What could Tyrese Maxey become for the Philadelphia 76ers?

Given how the season ended for the 76ers, it's easy to forget just how good Maxey was. Injuries limited him to just 60 games but he averaged 20.3 points and 3.5 assists per game, on a 60.5 true shooting percentage.

Maxey played just over half his minutes with Harden and undoubtedly benefited from his set-up ability and offensive gravity. But he has clearly demonstrated special potential as an offensive engine in his own right, ranking in the 83rd percentile in scoring efficiency as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll and the 93rd in transition.

He was still roughly average in isolations and his halfcourt efficiency needs to continue to improve to keep up with elite potential in the chaos of the open-court. But there is reason to think he can be a strong perimeter scorer even without Harden next to him. The question for the 76ers is whether he can adjust and assume a significant portion of Harden's responsibility for creating for others, becoming not just a powerhouse perimeter scorer but something closer to an actual point guard or at least a viable primary creator.

To try and answer that question, I think it's useful to look at some historical comparisons.

I was able to find 30 seasons by 24 different players over the last decade roughly comparable to Maxey's last year, with regards to age, usage and assist percentage — at least 1500 minutes played, with a player's first three seasons in the league, a usage rate about 22 percent and an assist rate between 14 and 19. Of that group, just six eventually made an All-Star team but mapping out their career paths helps illustrate the range of possible outcomes for Maxey, in terms of his style of play.

It's worth noting that no one in this group had multiple seasons with an assist percentage of 30 or higher over the rest of their careers. That is to say no one really evolved into a full-time point guard or primary facilitator and expecting Maxey to become that kind of player is probably unlikely. Which leaves two options...

The pure scorers: Jordan Clarkson, Malik Monk, Victor Oladipo, Alec Burks, Collin Sexton

The versatile offensive creators: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Zach LaVine, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The preferred outcome for the 76ers would clearly be someone like Booker, Murray or Gilgeous-Alexander. In this case, they'd have a secondary offensive engine to pair with Embiid, someone — through a mix of scoring and facilitating — capable of creating easy scoring opportunities for their teammates and single-handedly carrying the offense when Embiid is out of the game.

Getting to that level probably requires some mix of two developments.

The first is really building his pick-and-roll chemistry with Embiid. According to NBA CourtOptix, Harden received an average of 20.6 ball-screens per game from Embiid last season, and the 76ers averaged 1.22 points per possession out of those actions. Maxey's numbers — 8.1 screens per game, 1.08 points per possession — aren't terrible but they're in a different class.Maxey doesn't necessarily need to work with Embiid in exactly the same ways as Harden did but they definitely don't want to go back to 20 post-ups per game for Embiid with Maxey just standing in the corner or trying to back-cut his man off the entry pass. The Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll become a crucial offensive weapon for the 76ers, not just because of how it brought the best out of each player but because of how it warped the defense and created high-quality, ancillary scoring opportunities for the other three players. Maxey and Embiid need to find something similar.

The other possible element is Maxey taking a big leap as an isolation scorer. He was just barely below average in efficiency on isolations last season and his size will continue to be a limiting factor. But a small leap forward in his already pull-up shooting will make his speed and explosiveness that much more dangerous and open up a new world of offensive possibilities.

It's not necessarily catastrophic for the 76ers if Maxey turns out more like Jordan Clarkson or the Indiana version of Victor Oladipo. But that scenario does put a lot more pressure on Embiid and Tobias Harris to dominate in aspects of the postseason that they haven't been able to the past few years.

In the end, regardless of what happens with James Harden, Tyrese Maxey could be the x-factor that makes or breaks the 76ers' championship aspirations this season.

Subscribe to The Whiteboard, FanSided's daily email newsletter on everything basketball. If you like The Whiteboard, share it with someone you love! If you don't like The Whiteboard, share it with someone you loathe!

The NBA's summer "scandals"

In the abject depths of the NBA offseason whatever stories crop up tend to take on outside importance against the void of actual basketball to discuss or hypothetical player movement to dissect. On Monday, two different stories, that you probably wouldn't have even heard much about if they happened in November or December took center stage.

First, what appeared to be a former NBA social media employee with a still active login posted a message on the league's official Facebook page accusing the league of stretching the employees with long hours and low wages. The post was quickly deleted and the allegations are unlikely to demand any follow-up or response from the league so this is probably all you'll hear of it.

Second, the Knicks filed a lawsuit against a former employee and the Raptors (his new employer) for "procured and then disclosed proprietary information." At first glance, this appears to be more about violations of the Knicks' employment agreements than any meaningful or nefarious plot to steal impactful work products. But the filing a lawsuit is at least an indication that the Knicks are serious here.

READ MORE:

• NBA Social Media employee goes rogue by u/NBAstradamus92, for Reddit: The original source on the NBA social media story. Find a screenshot of the original post in the comments.
• Knicks sue former employee, Raptors, cite disclosure of 'proprietary information'
  by Baxter Holmes, for ESPN: A thorough explanation of the circumstances and allegations of the lawsuit.

The Big Three: How can the Philadelphia 76ers take another step forward?

Chris Kline is a staff writer for FanSided, an NBA Draft savant and one of the must tuned-in Philadelphia 76ers experts around. With Tyrese Maxey on my mind, I asked for his perspective on what next season might look like for Maxey and other parts of the 76ers' young core. Follow Chris on Twitter at @KlineNBA.

1. What is the hypothetical ceiling for Tyrese Maxey?

Tyrese Maxey is a 99th percentile speedster with elite body control, feather-soft touch, and a far above-average jumper. He has stretched his range well behind the NBA 3-point line, he's a singular dynamo on the fast break, and he should get more comfortable running the show once James Harden is ultimately out of the lineup.

He is restricted by size, as any 6-foot-3 guard is. He finishes mostly below the rim in the halfcourt setting. As a decision-maker with the ball, he remains limited. He can make simple passes and run a standard pick-and-roll, but he's not making sophisticated reads on the move or truly elevating teammates as a facilitator. If the Sixers plan to have him succeed Harden as the lead ball-handler, that will have to change.

All that said, the offensive ceiling is high. Maxey stretches defenses thin with his jumper and can split them right down the middle with his speed. There aren't many guards with Maxey's blend of touch, range, quickness, and athletic pop. If he can get better at weaponizing his speed to draw fouls and get all the way to the rim, Maxey could comfortably lead a very good team in scoring.

Defense is a concern, too. Effort has never been a problem with Maxey, but again, he's 6-foot-3 on a good day. He's prone to lapses in focus on the defensive end and even as that improves, he will remain a target of smart offenses.

On the whole, Maxey's ceiling is probably as a top-30 or 40 player who should be thought of as the second or third-wheel on a contender, not the primary option.

2. How much possible upside is there for the 76ers in the internal development of players like Maxey, Paul Reed and Jaden Springer and increased opportunities for them next season?

The immediate upside is probably less than Philly fans would hope for. Another Maxey leap is distinctly possible, but part of his growth over the last two years can be directly correlated to James Harden's presence. If Harden leaves, Maxey could be in for an uncomfortable adjustment period, and maybe even some regression. The opposite is also possible -- he could break out into proper stardom -- but it's simply no guarantee.

Paul Reed is a tremendous defensive talent. He's a great backup to Joel Embiid, capable of providing different wrinkles on defense while supplying a steady dose of hustle and grit that Embiid simply can't match in the regular season. Reed gets a little too cute on offense now and then, but he's a good finisher who is starting to embrace the simplicity of his role. That said, it's hard to predict massive upside for a player who is confined to 15 minutes a night behind Embiid. There's a world in which the Sixers explore Reed as a four next to Embiid -- it's worth trying -- but until his 3-point shot translates to NBA action, fans should remain skeptical.

Jaden Springer is a genuinely impressive defender, but how much immediate confidence can fans have in a 6-foot-3 guard with no discernable ability to handle or shoot at a high volume. There's reason for sustained long-term faith in Springer and the Sixers would be wise to give him minutes with the second unit, but it's hardly wise to expect a major breakout in 2023-24 without strong evidence of Springer advancing in previously unseen ways on the offensive end.

3. Assuming Damian Lillard is off the table, what's your ideal (realistic) trade return for James Harden?

Well. At this point, it's probably a pick-heavy package that allows the Sixers to pursue the next star that becomes available via trade. Zach LaVine is great, but he probably doesn't move the needle. Zion Williamson would be a huge win, but the Pelicans hang up the phone. Pascal Siakam's name keeps coming up, but the Sixers don't have what the Raptors are looking for. So yeah, a few first-round picks and maybe a decent young player is the pipe dream. That doesn't seem to be on the table right now. This could get ugly and it's hard to picture a resolution that makes both sides happy. Folks will continue to compare this to the Ben Simmons holdout, but there's the thing -- Simmons' trade value was much higher than Harden's is right now, ironically enough. The Sixers aren't getting a player of Harden's caliber out of Harden.

Recommended Reading:

1. Scoot Henderson is a video game: "He has that joystick movement with a combination of tight ball-handling to change direction and explosion off hesitations, which knock defenders off balance and create driving opportunities and space into dribble jumpers."Every top-20 NBA Draft pick's signature skill.

2. The whole world wants to see Jaylen Brown go left: "I’d venture to guess there would be a not-insignificant number of people around the world who would watch a six-hour livestream of Jaylen Brown being forced to do everything—brushing his teeth, dribbling a basketball, making breakfast, dribbling a basketball, lacquering a raw-edge wood slab table, dribbling a basketball—with his left hand."One offseason wish for every NBA team.

3. Mikal Bridges, inspired by Kevin Durant: " Grant him room between ~4 and ~16 feet, and he’ll bury you. He’s a killer scorer if he finds his midrange groove and can render middling drop coverage a liability."Playoff Lessons: Mikal Bridges is learning to adapt to life as a primary scorer.