Travis Kelce and the Chiefs are facing a crossroads somewhere down the road

The Kansas City Chiefs were laying the groundwork for a juggernaut offense long before Patrick Mahomes took over the reins from former quarterback Alex Smith.

The seeds of Kansas City’s dynasty were first planted in 2013 when the Chiefs hired Andy Reid as their head coach. With his second draft pick in Kansas City, Reid drafted tight end Travis Kelce, the younger brother of center Jason Kelce, who Reid drafted during his time with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Although it would take Kelce a few years to establish himself as one of the NFL’s greatest tight ends, he has served as the centerpiece of Reid’s offense for the majority of his career.

Reid’s West Coast offensive scheme transformed after he watched Tom Brady pick apart his defense from a shotgun formation in Super Bowl XXXVII. During that season, Reid’s offense took just 58 snaps (6.04 percent) from a shotgun formation. In 2023, Reid called 80.3 percent of his plays from shotgun. 

In Reid’s shotgun formations, Kelce is frequently detached from the formation as a Y-Iso tight end. The alignment has positioned Kelce to play in a traditional wide receiver role despite being listed as a tight end on the depth chart. Kelce thrived in Reid’s offense and helped bring three Lombardi Trophies to Kansas City, but his time in the NFL may be nearing its end.

Chiefs offense will need to evolve for success after Travis Kelce

Kelce is entering his 12th year in the league and will be 35 years old in October. As Father Time looms, concerns about Kelce’s production have become more prevalent. During a recent press conference, the All-Pro tight end was asked about how he would respond to a lightened workload and reduced role in the Chiefs offense.

“I probably wouldn’t listen to them if they did,” Kelce said, perhaps jokingly.

Despite what Kelce says, the Chiefs have already began lightening his workload. Since logging a career-high 993 offensive snaps in his first season with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the future Hall of Fame tight end has seen his snap share steadily decline. 

Kelce's snap share fell from 95 percent in 2018 to 93 percent in 2019, then to 86 percent in 2020 and 82 percent in 2021. His snap count decreased to 80 percent in 2022, despite appearing in a career-high 17 games. In 2023, Kelce was on the field for just 77 percent of the team's offensive snaps.

Tight ends have their best statistical output at an average age of 27.4. Despite popular belief, more tight ends find success at age 30 than they do at age 24. A gradual decline begins after a tight end turns 30 years old, and 88.4 percent of tight ends have their best seasons before age 32. 

Kelce seemed to be defying that trend when he posted a stellar season at age 33 in 2022, but his 2023 season showed signs of slippage. 

Despite capturing his ninth consecutive Pro Bowl and a third Super Bowl championship, the 2023 season was difficult for the four-time first-team All-Pro tight end. Kelce wasn’t able to carry the entire offense as he often has, and he was hampered by various injuries and ailments throughout the season.

With Kelce’s career winding down, Reid may have to evolve his offense once again. The Chiefs made Kelce the highest-paid tight end in the NFL this offseason, but they also drafted TCU tight end Jared Wiley in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft.