Tua Tagovailoa reportedly turned down contract offer from Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins are undeniably good. It's unclear whether or not the team, as presently constructed, can be great.

One unsolved riddle looms over the Dolphins' organization. That is the future of Tua Tagovailoa, who is eligible for an extension as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. Fresh off an impressive season in which Tagovailoa earned his first Pro Bowl appearance, the price is high. Even average starting quarterbacks are getting paid these days. That said, Tua is a unique case — a player so deeply indebted to his system and situation that it's difficult to determine his actual value in a vacuum.

Obviously, the Dolphins aren't evaluating Tagovailoa "in a vacuum." He's in Miami, with Mike McDaniel calling plays and Tyreek Hill lining up wide. Still, as the Dolphins look to navigate an increasingly expensive cap sheet, it's fair to wonder how much value Tagovailoa offers relative to a replacement-level alternative.

The Dolphins' 2023 season ended in bitter disappointment, falling from the No. 2 seed to the No. 6 seed in Week 18, then getting blasted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card round. We can chalk it up to cold weather, but Tagovailoa has yet to put together a strong performance in the postseason. The Dolphins' offense buckled under the spotlight (and perhaps the freezing temperatures) and Tagovailoa looked alarmingly out of his depth.

Now, team and player are tasked with finding common ground on a potential long-term deal. Right now, the two sides appear far apart. Tagovailoa has skipped portions of Miami's OTAs as he postures for a more lucrative deal, per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler (h/t Bleacher Report). The Dolphins have notably made an offer, but Tagovailoa shot it down.

"He has missed some OTA time, I've confirmed, and really it could depend on how negotiations go with his contract as to whether he starts to show up or is there full time. They have had contract talks, preliminary talks. I'm told that the Dolphins have made at least one contract offer but we know how these things go; the offer apparently hasn't been good enough or he'd probably be there full time. So, the market is pretty set. We saw Jared Goff, $50-plus million a year, that's going to apply to Tua and Trevor Lawrence."

To keep it short and sweet, Tagovailoa wants Jared Goff money — north of $50 million annually — and the Dolphins aren't there. Not yet, at least.

Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa remain far apart in contract extension talks

Tagovailoa will make $23.1 million in the final year of his rookie contract. There is a vocal contingent of the NFL fandom that believes Tagovailoa irrevocably caps the Dolphins' ceiling, and that he should not be re-signed accordingly. That is all good and well, but there are layers to this conundrum. If the Dolphins don't extend Tagovailoa, what are the replacement options? Once Dak Prescott inks an extension in Dallas, the free agency pool next offseason dwindles considerably. The Dolphins are too experienced and expensive to install a rookie quarterback. The 2025 NFL Draft is also weak at the position.

Odds are, the Dolphins' best path for the foreseeable future is Tagovailoa. Unless trade options come up or Miami has positive intel on Prescott, it's hard to imagine a meaningful upgrade. For all his faults, Tagovailoa has largely mastered the timing necessary to thrive in Miami's offense. He has a borderline telepathic relationship with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and his coach adores him.

That is an underrated factor in this discourse — Mike McDaniel L-O-V-E loves Tagovailoa. We have seen him get emotional at the podium talking about Tagovailoa's progression and the Dolphins' success. There is clearly belief in Tua within the organization where in counts. He completed 69.3 percent of his passes last season for 4,624 yards, which led the NFL. He netted 29 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. Those are Pro Bowl numbers, and those are numbers that get quarterbacks paid in 2024. That is the simple truth of the matter.

It is totally reasonable for the Dolphins to have reservations about paying Tagovailoa $50 million annually. They should have reservations. That said, unless the Dolphins are willing to take a leap of faith into dark and murky waters, I'm not sure there is a solid alternative. It sure feels like an extension is inevitable.