US Open picks 2024: Expert picks, best bets for Pinehurst

For the first time since 2014 and the fourth time overall, the US Open will head to Pinehurst No. 2 this week for the 2024 tournament. The North Carolina venue has produced some iconic moments and plenty of surprises over the years, which is why it's a perfect fit for golf's national open in the United States. And as Martin Kaymer returns to the setting of his triumph 10 years ago, it should be a phenomenal test.

When you think of Pinehurst, it's a fascinating test. The emphasis on short game prowess is as high as it's ever been with domed green complexes that make both chipping and putting around them quite a daunting task. Because of that, though, accuracy tee-to-green can also be important, as can avoiding big numbers. We'll also have to see if the USGA will protect the 2024 US Open at this course from what Kaymer did in 2014, putting from everywhere, which it seems like they might.

That gives us something to consider for our 2024 US Open picks and best bets. We need a big major week or just a big week in general in what's been a grueling season. Will we get it, though? We've put a lot of thought into it, and these are our expert picks for this week's golf at Pinehurst No. 2 and the third major championship of the season.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Memorial: 16-129-0, -40.53 Units (1-53 on outrights and longshots | -1.6 units at Memorial) | One and Done Total for 2024: $7,226,527 (Viktor Hovland at Memorial, $329,000)

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

US Open picks for Top 5 Top 10, Top 20, One and Done

Top 5 pick for the US Open: Hideki Matsuyama (+650)

It feels like Hideki Matsuyama is a polarizing figure among golf bettors. His injury history and sometimes head-scratching performance can sour some people. But I'm all in on what he's got cooking coming into Pinehurst. Over the last 20 rounds, Matsuyama is second in SG: Around-the-Green, third in Bogey Avoidance, and seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's also Top 20 in SG: Approach but even that is misleading after poor approach play at The Masters and PGA Championship when he may have been nursing an injury. At the Memorial, he gained 3.6 strokes on approach. All of this shows a complete game, especially when being solid with the putter, that can contend at a US Open.

Top 10 pick for the US Open: Bryson DeChambeau (+200)

As has been the case with LIV Golf stars in majors to this point, it's hard to say totally what the form is for Bryson DeChambeau. They've played just one event since he was runner-up at Valhalla and was good not great in his showing last week in Houston. But DeChambeau is now 2-for-2 in contending at majors in 2024 and is a past US Open champion. His tee-to-green play should be an advantage at Pinehurst and, if he can dial in on the greens with an underrated short game, I like for him to show up meaningfully this week.

Top 20 pick for the US Open: Russell Henley (+260)

What's not to love about Russell Henley as a proverbial sleeper this week at the US Open? His performance is so well-balanced and tailored to success at this grueling tournament. Over the last 16 rounds, Henley is 14th in the field in SG: Approach, 19th in SG: Around-the-Green, Top 25 in Bogey Avoidance, and has gained strokes putting on Bermuda greens. On top of that, we've also seen Henley have success at USGA setups with two Top 15 finishes in his last three US Open starts. With his balanced game and form along with his accuracy and history, this feels like a chance to get some great value.

One and Done pick for the US Open: Bryson DeChambeau

We're in a weird spot but this is one of the two final opportunities to use a LIV Golf player in any One and Done league. Bryson's success thus far in 2024 when it comes to majors combined with his history at the US Open has my attention enough that he's where I'm putting my stock when it comes to this pick this week.

US Open picks: More best bets for Pinehurst

Ludvig Åberg to finish as Top Debutant (+150, FanDuel)

Anyone who has followed me knows how invested I've been in Ludvig Åberg and, while I do have some overall concerns about his short game, his combination of ball striking and the ability to avoid bogeys -- along with a runner-up finish in his major debut at Augusta earlier this year -- has me confident that he can show up respectably at the US Open. But really, this bet is more about his competition for Top Debutant. He's +150 with his competition being the likes of Nicolai Hojgaard, Tom McKibbin, Harry Higgs, S.H. Kim and Tim Widing. No offense to those players but the talent gap between Åberg and them is immense. Getting plus-money feels like too good to be true.

Mac Meissner to finish Top 40 (+300)

We're throwing a bit of a dart here but it's hard not to be at least a little impressed with Mac Meissner's work as we've been entering summer. Before a T57 in Canada, he finished T5 at Myrtle Beach and T13 at the Charles Schwab. And earlier in the year, we also saw him finish T10 at the Valero Texas Open. And what's more, he followed up that finish in Canada by qualifying for the US Open in Dallas, finishing second in that field. Meissner has popped on approach when he's been on but his short game has been rock-solid all year, including ranking Top 20 in the field putting on Bermuda. His track record is nonexistent for this type of event but I like the fit for a Top 40 at this value.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout to finish Top 20 (+350)

What we've seen from Christiaan Bezuidenhout this season has been hard to peg but undeniably impressive. While his approach play has fallen off from leading the tour in strokes gained there earlier in the year, he's still gaining strokes and has improved his short game even further. The South African ranks fifth in the field over the last 16 rounds in SG: Around-the-Green and 13th in putting on Bermuda. He's also Top 20 in the field putting on fast greens, which we're going to see here. When you combine that with his ball striking, he could be a live sleeper this week.

US Open winner picks: Outrights for Pinehurst in 2024

Scottie Scheffler to win the US Open, 1 Unit (+333)

Do I really need to fully unpack this one? Scottie Scheffler is non-hyperbolically approaching Tiger Woods levels of dominance right now. His ball-striking is second to none but the putter has been a gainer in every week since he switched to the mallet and we know how elite his play around the green is. We're going heavy on the investment for Scheffler to win but it's well worth it based on the form he's shown for almost a year now.

Collin Morikawa to win the US Open, 1 Unit (+1200 Winner W/O Scheffler)

We're going to try and thread the needle and hit Scottie and then a winner without Scottie. So that brings us to Collin Morikawa. He obviously battled Scheffler at the Memorial but is another player who also has contended in both majors this year. Beyond that. Morikawa is checking all the right boxes. Over the last 16 rounds, he's 16th in SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Around-the-Green, fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, Top 25 in Bogey Avoidance and someone who simply plays extremely difficult golf courses well. He could threaten Scheffler to win at Pinehurst but we'll play it safe for the winner without market.

Russell Henley to win the US Open, 0.5 Units (+6600 Winner W/O Scheffler)

Everything that was previously said about Henley applies here as well. I'm much more confident in a Top 20 than betting him winner without Scheffler but that possbility is there. So often, we see the US Open really turn into a war of attrition. Henley's complete game should suit that well, especially with his tee-to-green prowess, and I like for him to continue his success at the US Open while perhaps besting his previous good finishes as well.