Does USC’s loss to Minnesota eliminate the Trojans from the College Football Playoff?
By John Buhler
Not going to lie. Things look really bleak for the USC Trojans in the early part of October. After getting a big non-conference win over LSU in Las Vegas during Labor Day Weekend, the Trojans have gone 2-2. While they got wins over Utah State and Wisconsin at home, they lost on the road to both Michigan and Minnesota. Clearly, the Trojans are not going to transition into the Big Ten seamlessly.
Losing to a fringe playoff contender like Michigan in The Big House is fine, but losing a dumb one to a Golden Gophers team that wants to fire P.J. Fleck into the sun is another. I hate to say it, but this is exactly why I was skeptical about Lincoln Riley leading this team into the Big Ten. His Air Raid Big 12 pop-gun offense isn't going to work in the Midwest, just like it isn't working at Wisconsin or at Purdue.
And as far as if USC has a pathway into the College Football Playoff, here is their remaining schedule.
Date | USC Trojans opponent |
---|---|
Oct. 12 | Penn State Nittany Lions |
Oct. 19 | at Maryland Terrapins |
Oct. 25 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights |
Nov. 2 | at Washington Huskies |
Nov. 9 | Bye |
Nov. 16 | Nebraska Cornhuskers |
Nov. 23 | at UCLA Bruins |
Nov. 30 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
Given that USC just lost to Minnesota of all times, there is only one guaranteed win on the Trojans' schedule. That would be at UCLA, and even then that is the Bruins' Super Bowl. With an expected loss next weekend at home vs. Big Ten title contender Penn State, we can officially throw dirt on the Trojans' chances of making the playoff now. They have to win out to have any shot at getting in now.
The big question I have is what record does Riley need to achieve to get himself a fourth year at USC.
USC's College Football Playoff chances are gone after Minnesota defeat
Of all the teams previously ranked inside the top-11 (USC was No. 11, in case you forgot), the Trojans have by far and away the hardest and most improbable path of getting in. Alabama, Missouri and Tennessee just suffered their first losses, but that was in conference play. Alabama is still likely a lock, Tennessee still probably gets in, but Missouri is very much on the brink right now after Texas A&M.
And if you look at Michigan falling to Washington, well, the Wolverines have the head-to-head over USC. You also need to factor in that it was a revenge game for the Huskies, as they lost to the Wolverines in the national championship game a year ago. Plus, this was only Michigan's first loss in Big Ten play. Their other defeat on the season was a trouncing at home to SEC contender Texas.
As far as Riley keeping his job, keep in mind that new USC athletic director Jennifer Cohen did not hire him. Mike Bohn did. You don't even know! In my estimation, if USC goest 8-4 with future losses to Penn State and Notre Dame, Riley will get a fourth year. Should the Trojans go 7-5 or worse, I think he is gone, especially if a fifth or unexpected loss comes to Cohen's former employer of Washington.
In a season full of so much promise, the Trojans once again proved they are college's Dallas Cowboys.