USC vs. Michigan: Analyzing and previewing the historic Big Ten matchup

As USC and Michigan gear up for their first meeting as Big Ten members, anticipation is high for what promises to be an iconic battle at The Big House.

Historically, these two teams have met on the grand stage of the Rose Bowl, but this will be the first time they meet as conference foes in a regular-season showdown. The stakes are high, with Michigan eager to rebound after a shaky start to the season, while USC looks to continue its momentum after a dominant 2-0 start.

USC: Riding momentum and reinventing on defense

USC’s season is off to a hot start, and momentum is clearly on their side. After an impressive 31-28 victory over LSU in the season opener, followed by a 48-0 demolition of Utah State, the Trojans had a Week 3 bye to rest and regroup. Head coach Lincoln Riley has emphasized the importance of this historic matchup, and his team is poised to make a statement.

"I think it would be a mistake to totally just discount that [the enormity of the matchup] and just say it's another game. It's a historic game," Riley said. "I think it's not surprising that the Big Ten from a scheduling standpoint would put these two iconic teams and brands against each other on the field here early on in the season. I think understanding the significance about it, embracing that and understanding what a great opportunity it is for us to go get off to a great start."

Quarterback Miller Moss has filled the massive void left by Caleb Williams’ departure to the NFL. Moss has been stellar, completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 607 yards and two touchdowns, all without throwing a single interception. His efficiency, highlighted by a 160.0 passer rating, has been vital to USC’s offensive success.

But the story of this year’s Trojans isn’t just the offense — it’s the defense. Under new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, USC’s defense has transformed from one of the nation’s worst in 2023 to a top-60 unit through two weeks. Last season, USC ranked 119th in total defense, a glaring weakness that cost them multiple games. This year, however, they’ve already made massive strides, currently sitting 55th nationally. Lynn’s impact cannot be overstated, and this revamped defense will be key to USC’s Big Ten campaign.

Michigan: An identity crisis on offense

Michigan’s season has been a stark contrast to USC’s, as the defending national champions have struggled out of the gate. After a lackluster 2-1 start, which includes an embarrassing 31-12 home loss to Texas, the Wolverines are searching for answers — especially at quarterback. Davis Warren, who began the season as the starter, has been benched after throwing six interceptions in the first three games, including three in a narrow win over Arkansas State.

Enter Alex Orji. The junior quarterback has been named the starter for the Big Ten opener against USC, and head coach Sherrone Moore hopes his dual-threat capabilities will spark Michigan’s stagnant offense. Orji has seen limited action this season but has shown flashes of potential, particularly in the running game, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. His ability to extend plays with his legs will be crucial as Michigan looks to establish a more balanced attack.

Despite their offensive struggles, Michigan boasts an elite roster. Cornerback Will Johnson and defensive tackle Mason Graham are among the best in the nation at their positions and will be key to Michigan’s defensive success. Tight end Colston Loveland, though questionable with an arm injury, also brings NFL-caliber talent to the field. Michigan’s defense, although not as dominant as last year, still ranks 13th in the Big Ten in total defense, surrendering 304.3 yards per game.

Key matchups

USC offense vs Michigan defense: USC’s offensive firepower is well-documented, with Moss leading an efficient passing attack, and speedster Zachariah Branch providing a dangerous deep threat. However, Michigan’s defense, anchored by Johnson and Graham, is one of the few units that can match USC’s athleticism. The battle between Branch and Johnson will be one of the most intriguing matchups, as the young Michigan cornerback looks to contain one of the nation’s most explosive receivers.

Michigan ground game vs USC defense: Michigan’s offensive game plan will likely revolve around the run, particularly with Orji under center. The Wolverines will look to shorten the game, control the clock, and keep USC’s high-powered offense off the field. If Michigan can establish the run, they may have a chance to slow down the tempo and limit the number of possessions USC has. However, USC’s defensive front, which was much improved under Lynn, will be looking to shut down the run early and force Orji into difficult passing situations.

Line movement and betting odds

The betting line for this game has seen significant movement since opening, with Michigan initially favored by 13 points. However, as the Wolverines' offensive struggles have continued, and USC has surged, the Trojans now enter as 5.5-point favorites. The over/under has also dropped from 53.5 to 46.5, reflecting concerns about Michigan’s offensive potential.

Prediction: Can Michigan Rebound?

USC is clearly the team with the momentum, while Michigan is in the midst of an identity crisis. The Wolverines’ offensive woes, particularly at the quarterback position, are a major red flag, especially against a USC team that has improved on both sides of the ball. While Michigan will attempt to control the game with their running attack and lean on their defense to keep it close, USC’s superior playmakers — especially Moss and Branch — will ultimately prove too much for the Wolverines.

In the end, expect USC to leave Ann Arbor with a hard-fought victory, covering the spread and putting themselves in an excellent position for their Big Ten debut season. Michigan will need to find answers quickly if they hope to salvage their season, but the Trojans’ balance and momentum give them the edge.