Valero Texas Open 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Valero Texas Open - Final Round
Valero Texas Open - Final Round / Alex Bierens de Haan/GettyImages

Just one week until we arrive at Augusta National Golf Club for The Masters and the first major of the year. But before we get there, we make one last PGA Tour pitstop in Texas, TPC San Antonio specifically, for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. And we have a loaded field in the mix this week as players aim to get some reps in for Augusta.

That's likely why we see the likes of Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Åberg, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama and more playing at TPC San Antonio this week, which makes it all the more intriguing for our Valero Texas Open picks on the week.

Houston was a punch to the gut. Some Friday collapses late hurt, but nothing hurt worse than missing a +350 play on Matti Schmid to finish Top 20 only for him to wrap at T19 but then get jumped twice to fall back to T21. Brutal break, and ultimately the nail in the coffin for a losing week. But we're knocking on the door of a big week and this event is as good as any for it.

So with that, let's go headfirst into our Valero Texas Open picks for the week with a Top 10, outright, One and Done and more best bets for this week on the PGA Tour.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Houston: 11-65-0, -9.93 Units (1-25 on outrights and longshots | -4.6 units at Houston) | One and Done Total for 2024: $6,100,415 (Sahith Theegala at Houston, $65,065)

PGA Tour expert picks for the Valero TexaOpen: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for the Valero Texas Open: Alex Noren (+300)

True talk, how do you not love Alex Noren this week at the Valero Texas Open? Recent form, he comes in having finished T9, T19, and T11 in his last three starts and is 13th in this field over his last 12 rounds in strokes gained on approach. He's also Top 40 in this field gaining strokes off the tee, around the green and with the putter over the last 12 rounds. He's also first in Par-5 scoring and in Bogey Avoidance over the last 12 rounds as well. And if that's not enough, he was T15 here last year. It all is adding up and I love these odds for Noren to get into the Top 10 again.

Outright Winner pick for the Valero Texas Open (0.5 Units): Ludvig Åberg (+1200)

For as much as I love Ludvig Åberg, he hasn't really paid that off for me this year with my picks. But the game and the statistics tell me his finishes haven't married with his game of late, and that has to change in short order. This feels like a perfect spot for him in that capacity. Since finishing T30 at the Sony, he hasn't finished worse than T25 and has a runner-up at Pebble Beach and a solo eighth finish at THE PLAYERS. He's a great blend on approach -- where he's 17th in this field over the last 16 rounds in strokes gained -- with his wedges and longer irons, which is the recipe in San Antonio, and remains an elite driver. Even better, he's Top 50 in short game strokes gained categories too. It would also be fitting for him to pick up his second win to gain too much steam going into Augusta, so I'm taking my stock in Ludvig and running with it.

One and Done pick for the Valero Texas Open: Alex Noren

We've already used Ludvig in One and Done and, frankly, I'm not sure I'd want to have used him at a non-signature event anyway. But Noren is the perfect fit. I think the win equity is legitimately there with the veteran and everything jumps off the page for him to have a big week and cash a nice payday for us here.

Valero Texas Open picks: More best bets for PGA Tour this week

Mark Hubbard to finish Top 20 at the Valero Texas Open (+333)

This is definitely one I'm planting my flag on this week, I love where Mark Hubbard is at for this tournament. Yes, his last two finishes have been back-to-back T31s, but the form fits what I'm looking for. His overall form, particularly on approach, has been much better than that, however. And more importantly, the profile for those last two starts is exactly what we want at the Valero Texas Open. In the last eight rounds, he's second in this field in weighted Strokes Gained: Approach, third in Par-5 scoring, and 11th in fairways gained. His lack of length won't kill him here off the tee and I think it's a pop week we should see coming.

Ryan Moore to finish Top 20 at the Valero Texas Open (+375)

Another guy who is short off of the tee, Ryan Moore is also checking the right boxes. Over the last 12 rounds, he's first in this field in weighted Strokes Gained: Approach, which is where we start. But he's also Top 2 in both fairways gained and good drive percentage. He may be short, but he's hitting it accurately and into the right spots. And with that, he's also 13th in the field bogey avoidance over the last 12 rounds. His last two starts at TPC San Antonio have stunk, but he was outright third here in 2019. His current form suggests he could replicate that again.

Matti Schmid Top 30 and Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 at the Valero Texas Open (+717, DraftKings)

Matti Schmid has been on a little bit of a heater for him lately, going T10, T26, T17 and T21 over the last four weeks. His driving has been top tier while his approach play has been pedestrian and putting has been popping. The approach play, slightly gaining 0.04 strokes over his last 12 rounds, does worry me slightly, but pairing him with Hideki Matsuyama in a parlay with the 2021 Masters winner only needing a Top 20 when his profile on approach and with good drives fits seamlessly, I love the odds you can get here, even with a bit of inherent risk.

Longshot Pick to win the Valero Texas Open (0.1 Units): Mark Hubbard (+11000, FanDuel)

More stock in Hubbard this week and I still feel great about the possibility. His game is trending in a great direction and this seems to be the perfect place for him to put it together. At 110/1 odds, he's going to get a sprinkle from me because of that.

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