Warriors chances of losing Klay Thompson just went way up

Klay Thompson has spent his entire 13-year career with the Golden State Warriors, but that could change this summer. Per Shams Charania of The Athletic, there is a mutual interest between Thompson and the Orlando Magic.

Why the Magic want to pull Klay Thompson out of the hat

The Orlando Magic's interest in Klay Thompson is quite understandable. They ranked 29th in 3-point attempts, 24th in 3-point efficiency, and 30th out of 30 in total 3-pointers made. Thompson, despite some slippage on defense, remains an efficient high-volume 3-pointer shooter. Since returning to the court in 2021-22 after ACL and Achilles' injuries wiped out two consecutive seasons, Thompson has averaged 9.7 3-point attempts per game on 39.7 percent shooting.

The Magic are one of the NBA's most exciting young teams, but their fatal flaw all season was a lack of outside shooting. This is the 12th consecutive season the Magic have had an offensive rating below league average. Heading into the offseason, they're projected to have $19 million in cap space and have the ability to open up as much as $58 million. With their dire need to add 3-point shooting and the money to target free agents, the Magic should test Thompson's desire to stay in California.

The Warriors financial mess could cost them Klay Thompson

The most revelatory part of Sharania's report isn't the Magic's obvious interest in Klay Thompson. It's the claim that there is "mutual interest" between the two parties. For months, there have been whispers of the Golden State Warriors' nervy contract talks with Klay Thompson. While many have speculated that two sides would eventually meet in the middle, it wouldn't be the first time a team lost a franchise legend over money.

The financial situation has undoubtedly become a sore subject. Thompson has made $268.7 million in his career and is coming off a $43.2 million salary. On the other hand, the Warriors are projected to be $104 million over the salary cap and have repeatedly paid the luxury tax. The reality is the Warriors desperately want to cut salary, but Thompson has grown accustomed to a high level of compensation. It remains unlikely that Thompson is looking for another $40-million-plus-a-year commitment, but the difference between retaining him at $20 million compared to $30 million a season is massive.

If the Warriors were to cut Chris Paul and his $30 million non-guaranteed salary from their books, retain everyone else, and bring Thompson back on a $30 million a year salary they'd still be at $174 million in salary commitments for 2024-25 with only ten players under contract. To round out their roster they'd likely go past the first tax apron of $178.65 million, and be subject to steep financial penalties. Throw in a Jonathan Kuminga extension that would kick in 2025-26, and any large multi-year commitment to Thompson would set their fate as one of the most expensive teams in the league for the foreseeable future.

Klay Thompson has a decision to make. Does he want to earn as much money on what will likely be his last big contract, or is he willing to take a hometown discount to keep the Warriors' finances under control? Charania's report that there is a mutual interest between Thompson and Magic suggests Thompson is indeed interested in grabbing as much of the bag as he can. However, it does remain possible that Thompson's representatives leaked this information to Charania to apply pressure on the Warriors. Having a viable option to leave is a powerful bit of leverage, but using it suggests initial talks between the two have been less than productive.

The Warriors have spent the past half-decade behaving like money is no object, but that was when they felt they still had a team capable of competing for titles. The degradation in Thompson's game has seen him go from a blank-check player to a check-the-bank player. That 180-degree turn can cause whiplash and has burnt Golden Gate-sized bridges before. Time will tell just how serious Thompson is about leaving the Warriors for greener pastures, but right now, this is the closest the Warriors dynastic core has come to splintering.