What Brian Cashman's refusal to trade No. 2 prospect might mean for a Yankees-Juan Soto reunion

Juan Soto has been a definite difference-maker for the New York Yankees this season. Slashing .295/.426/.558 with 23 HR, Soto has turned the uneventful at-bats around Judge into must-see TV. His contribution to the Yankees' offense shows in their 58-40 record. Just last year, the Yankees missed the postseason altogether. The arrival of Soto with his ability to draw walks and hit for both average and power has marked the spectacular turnaround of an otherwise dismal ball club.

Unfortunately, Soto is only under contract through this season and will hit free agency after it concludes. What does this mean for the Yankees? Well, obviously a player that has turned your entire organization around is worth bidding on in the offseason, and the Yankees will spare no expense to bring him back…Right? Right?!

Meet the Yankees’ No. 2 prospect, Spencer Jones

Spencer Jones is the Yankees’ number 2 prospect, who is ranked No. 74 overall. His 6-foot-6, 235-pound frame is exactly what the Yankees like in their lineup—just look at Judge, Stanton and LeMahieu. The 23-year-old outfielder is currently slashing .237/.317/.403 with 10 HR and 18 stolen bases through 295 at-bats in Double-A. These stats also come with 124 strike outs.

While his numbers this year aren't exactly stand-out stats (beyond the strike-out total), his extra base hits total from last year is something to keep an eye on. In 2023, through 480 at-bats in high-A and Double-A, Jones hit 16 HR, 29 doubles and four triples to the tune of a .267 AVG. In addition, he stole 43 bases.

The base stealing aside, the main reason he is so highly regarded is his power, which scouts rate as a 60/80. His other ratings are average. But his problem—the reason for the low hitting grade—is his tendency to swing and miss. Since his power doesn’t outshine his drawbacks, this would mean his only talent that is currently on display is his speed. Don’t get me wrong: He still has potential, he just hasn’t flashed it as much. The Yankees hope they can develop him into well rounded hitter. But what does this have to do with Juan Soto?

The Yankees have refused to part ways with Jones

Even if his numbers are lacking, the Yankees have made Jones untouchable, kinda like The Martian, Jasson Dominguez. In trade talks with the White Sox, the Yankees seemed on track to acquiring Garrett Crochet, who will be under club control through 2026. That’s when the White Sox asked for Spencer Jones. The Yankees, in turn, refused and hung up.

It's not just the White Sox who are attracted to Spencer Jones. He's attracted the attention of several teams who’ve asked about him. The details are hazy, but it is clear the answer was no. This is where Juan Soto comes back into the story.

Next year, should the Yankees keep Jones with the intention of playing him, they will be going into the season with an outfield consisting of Judge, Jones and Dominguez, with Stanton at DH. That might imply the Yankees aren’t willing to spend on Soto. But, hold on for a second. Aren’t they at least going to try?

Soto vs. Jones: What are the options?

With big contracts on the books, the Yankees make a big splash every other year, but tend to be stingy just about every other time an opportunity comes along. After all, the days of George Steinbrenner are gone. But let’s say the Yankees do try, since they have shown interest in keeping Soto around.

When it comes down to it, Brian Cashman is crunching the numbers (supposedly). However, they might not outbid the Dodgers or Giants, in which case the possibility that Soto goes elsewhere is already baked into the calculus.

If they lose Soto and Jones is traded, the Yankees are missing an outfielder. So, is keeping Jones just a plan B in case Soto doesn’t land back with the Yankees? This is a possibility, but assuming that invalidates another Yankees fact.

After giving up a massive haul for one year of Soto, the Yankees are a win-now team. But after passing on a chance at Crochet, you wouldn’t know it. Perhaps, with Jones, they'll make a try at Tarik Skubal.

Still, it doesn’t seem like there's anything in the works involving Jones, which might suggest that a blockbuster is unlikely. If the Yankees don’t win this year, then they’ve just wasted the haul they sent to San Diego. There is one thing we know for sure, and that is the Yankees are not going to win in the postseason if they do nothing.

Sure, keeping Jones could be a forward thinking move. Soto did suggest he wanted to play with Ohtani, after all. Advantage: Dodgers. Maybe Cashman got the hint and is preparing for a future without Soto. It could also be that the Yankees believe Jones can turn into another powerful, five-tool slugger they won’t need to pay for a long time.

What ever the case, we don’t know. If the Yankees keep Jones as a plan B but then land Soto, they could trade Jones next year. Otherwise, he would just be a fourth outfielder.

The Yankees have made attempts to sign Soto to an extension, but as a Scott Boras client, he doesn’t do that. Still, one might suspect, if the bidding goes to a price Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t like, the Yankees will throw in the towel rather than engage in a bidding war. Chances are, if the Yankees keep Jones past the deadline, it’s because they want him to play in their outfield, in which case Juan Soto likely isn’t returning. But again, we don’t know anything for sure. The one person who does know is Brian Cashman.

If they stick with Soto, the Yankees get a proven hitter. If they bring up Jones next year in his place, it isn’t certain.