What it would cost the Cardinals to trade for the best pitcher on the trade market

Following a disappointing 2023 season, the St. Louis Cardinals entered 2024 hoping to bounce back to 2022 form, when they won 93 games and the NL Central. Though when St. Louis fell 5-3 to the Milwaukee Brewers on May 11, it looked like another disappointing season was looming.

The loss dropped the Cardinals to a 15-24 record and a season-low 10.4% chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs. While they’re still below .500, the Cardinals have made substantial progress over the last month, as they’re now 29-31 and just behind the Chicago Cubs for the third NL Wild Card spot.

But for St. Louis to continue its ascension up the standings and to secure a postseason spot, it must add starting pitching. Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have been valuable free agent signings, but Gray is likely the only starter the Cardinals would be comfortable and confident in to win a playoff game. 

Among the starting pitching options as the trade deadline looms, Jesus Luzardo is the most obvious trade candidate. With the Miami Marlins out of contention and set for another rebuild, they should receive a haul for Luzardo — who becomes a free agent after the conclusion of the 2026 season.

Luzardo has struggled to a 5.30 ERA thus far in 2024, but his 3.82 xFIP and 3.97 SIERA indicate he’s due for positive regression. From 2022-23, Luzardo pitched 279.0 innings to a 3.48 ERA while accumulating 5.9 fWAR. 

Here’s a potential package the Cardinals could send to Miami to swing a trade for Luzardo:

Tink Hence (RHP)

Hence is the Cardinals’ No. 1 prospect and No. 48 overall prospect on MLB.com. On FanGraphs’ preseason rankings, he was St. Louis’ No. 3 prospect and No. 96 overall. The right-hander was selected No. 63 in the 2020 MLB Draft and is currently a 21-year-old in Double-A.

Getting drafted straight out of high school, St. Louis has been cautious with Hence’s innings. After a brief eight-inning stint in 2021 (CPX), he pitched 52.1 innings in 2022 (all in Single-A) before pitching 96.0 innings in 2023 (41.2 in High-A and 54.1 in Double-A).

Hence cruised through Single-A and High-A but struggled immensely in his first Double-A stint. Across his 54.1 innings, he pitched to a 5.47 ERA while setting a career-low 22.2 K% and career-high 9.2 BB%.

Thus far in 51.2 innings at Double-A in 2024, Hence has dominated, pitching to a 3.14 ERA, 2.81 FIP and 2.70 xFIP. Hence’s strikeout percentage is up to 32.4% while his walk percentage is down to 7.1%. His K-BB% is nearly double what it was last year in Double-A, as it’s jumped from 13.0% to 25.2%.

While the Marlins ideally want the headliner of a Luzardo trade to be a position player — they still have Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers — the Cardinals lack high-end potential and Hence is their highest upside prospect by a decent margin.

Leonardo Bernal (C)

Bernal is the Cardinals’ No. 7 prospect on MLB.com. On FanGraphs’ preseason rankings, he was St. Louis’ No. 6 prospect. The 20-year-old catcher signed for $680,000 out of Panama as an international free agent in 2021. 

After spending 2021 in the DSL and 2022 and 2023 in Single-A, the Cardinals promoted Bernal to High-A in 2024. Through 43 games, the switch-hitting catcher has hit .265/.337/.388 (107 wRC+), but his bat is seen as raw. FanGraphs’ report gives him a 25/50 hit grade, 25/40 game power grade and 45/45 raw power grade.

With the Marlins lacking catching prowess in the minor league system and the majors, Bernal would likely become their catcher of the future. At just 20 years old, Bernal has significant time to develop offensive and defensively before arriving to the majors. 

Dylan Carlson (OF)

Carlson was once one of the top prospects in baseball and seen as a future building block for the Cardinals. Though he struggled in his first MLB stint in 2020, Carlson had a productive 2021 season (2.4 fWAR in 2021) and a solid 2022 (1.9 fWAR in 128 games). 

Following solid back-to-back seasons, Carlson struggled in an injury-plagued 2023 season and has been abysmal in 2024 after starting the season on the IL. Even with Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar on the IL, Carlson has been St. Louis’ fourth outfielder behind Brendan Donovan, Michael Siani and Alec Burleson. 

With no clear role on the Cardinals going forward, Carlson could benefit from a change of scenery. Carlson’s ability to play all three outfield spots would land him an instant opportunity to start every day in Miami. Not set to be a free agent until after the conclusion of the 2026 season, Carlson could be a key building block in Miami if he returns to his prior form. 

Cesar Prieto (INF)

Prieto is the Cardinals’ No. 17 prospect on MLB.com. On FanGraphs’ preseason rankings, he was St. Louis’ No. 15 prospect. The 25-year-old infielder defected from Cuba in 2021 and signed for $650,000 with the Baltimore Orioles in 2022. He was traded to St. Louis as part of the Jack Flaherty trade.

Having spent all of 2023 and 2024 in Triple-A, Prieto can instantly make an impact for the Marlins. In 2024, he’s hit .296/.333/.503 (112 wRC+) while striking out in just 10.4% of his plate appearances. Prieto’s biggest strength is his hit tool, with FanGraphs giving him a 50/60 hit grade.