Will the Utah Jazz finally end their incomprehensible triple-double drought?

The Utah Jazz are one of the most successful franchises in NBA history. Since 1983-84, the Jazz made the playoffs in 31 out of 40 seasons, including 20 straight from 1983-84 to 2002-03, won their division 11 times, and employed multiple Hall of Famers and All-Stars. However, over the past 15 seasons, outside of a championship, one thing has eluded the franchise — a regular season triple-double. 

No one knew it at the time, but the Jazz’s last regular season triple-double came courtesy of Carlos Boozer on Feb. 13, 2008, against the Seattle Supersonics, led by a spindly rookie named Kevin Durant. The following season, the Sonics would move to Oklahoma City, be renamed the Thunder, and draft Russell Westbrook, history’s most prolific triple-double maestro.  

Feb. 13, 2008, is ancient history in the digital age. Back then, the number one song in America was “Low” by Flo-Rida, featuring T-Pain, the number one movie was Fool’s Gold, starring Mathew McConaughey and Kate Hudson, George W. Bush was still the United States President, Barack Obama’s announcement to run for President was a mere three days old, and Taylor Swift was still a country music star who was months away from breaking through into the mainstream pop marketplace.   

The improbability of the Jazz's triple-double drought

In the 5,727 days and 1,223 games (as of Oct. 18, 2023) the Jazz have gone without a regular season triple-double, there have been 1,169 regular season triple-doubles, every team in the NBA has recorded at least nine, eight have eclipsed 50 total triple-doubles, and the longest non-Jazz drought is the Orlando Magic’s which began on Feb. 19, 2021. While the Jazz’s drought is bugging its parents for a learner’s permit, the Magic’s drought is still potty training. 

The Jazz have had some close calls ending their triple-double drought. Six times since Feb. 13, 2008, a Jazz player has come up one rebound or assist short of reaching a triple-double. Their most recent attempt was on Dec. 28, 2020, when Mike Conley finished one assist shy of ending the steak. However, even if he had been successful, the Jazz would still have the longest drought. 

The ridiculousness of the Jazz’s triple-double drought cannot be fully appreciated through dates. Based on the average occurrence of a triple-double in each season starting in 2008-09, the chances that the Jazz would fail to record a single regular season triple-double comes in at 0.000000000000000641 percent or twenty-five to three quintillion, nine hundred quadrillion, one hundred fifty-six trillion, six billion, two hundred forty million, two hundred forty-nine thousand, three hundred odds (3,900,156,006,240,249,300/25). If you placed a one-dollar bet with those odds, your payout would be $156,006,240,249,609,999. A total 336.5 times the total amount of the $463.5 trillion of estimated wealth in the world.

There are a few caveats with these figures. The first is that many of the league’s triple-doubles are generated by a small group of players, which the Jazz haven’t employed (maybe they shouldn’t have bought out Russell Westbrook). The second is that the Jazz have produced one triple-double in that span, just not in the regular season. 

On April 21, 2018, Ricky Rubio broke the streak at 3721 days in Game 3 of their first-round playoff series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Rubio scored 26 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and dished 10 assists as the Jazz beat the Thunder 115-102. The Jazz would win the series in six games before losing to the Houston Rockets in five games, and Ricky Rubio’s career-best playoff performance would fade into the ether. 

Can this be the season the Jazz finally end their triple-double drought?

The Jazz's chances of ending the drought this season remain low. No one on their roster averaged more than five points, five rebounds, and five assists last season, and their two best rebounders, Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, averaged under two assists per game. The best candidates to end the impossible drought are Talen Horton-Tucker and Jordan Clarkson. 

Of players to finish the season with the Jazz, Clarkson led the team with 4.4 assists per game and had two games with 10-plus assists and three more with nine. Unfortunately, he only eclipsed 10 rebounds in a game once, but it’s easier to walk into 10 rebounds than it is to create 10 assists. 

Horton-Tucker’s per-game averages don’t scream triple-double machine, but that’s largely a function of his relatively modest minutes load (20.2 per game). Per 36 minutes, Horton-Tucker averaged 19.1 points, 6.7 assists (a team-best), and 5.8 rebounds. He had one game where he finished two rebounds shy of a 37-point triple-double and another where he came up two assists and rebounds short. 

The Jazz’s offense spreads the ball around without any one player dominating the ball. The result is a unit that punches above its weight relative to talent but makes it incredibly hard to generate triple-doubles. Barring a passing explosion from Lauri Markkanen or a massive minutes load for Kelly Olynyk, the Jazz’s best bet to end their triple-double drought is for Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker to dominate the ball. While I wouldn’t bet on them deviating from their offense in the pursuit of random individual statistical accumulation, I also wouldn’t have bet on them not producing a triple-double for 15 years. Because if I had, I’d own the world 336.5 times over