No two ways about it, the start of the 2024 PGA Tour season has been rough for our expert picks and best bets. The year of the longshot continued, although to a lesser degree at Pebble Beach with Wyndham Clark winning the 54-hole shortened event at 80/1, but we're now heading to the vaunted WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale this week.
As always, this is the golf buildup throughout Super Bowl weekend and the most raucous event on the PGA Tour thanks to the 16th hole. Unlike last year, however, it's not a signature event on the 2024 schedule this time around, and we've seen the likes of Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, among others, already withdraw. So it's a tricky field, especially with a heavy favorite in Scottie Scheffler (+450) returning as the back-to-back defending champion at the WM Phoenix Open.
We did cash Justin Thomas for a Top 10 last week at Pebble Beach, but everything else was a miss, some big and some narrow. It's time to turn the luck around, though, which is the goal with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for this week's WM Phoenix Open.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2024 through Pebble Beach: 5-25-0, -10.63 Units (0-10 on outrights and longshots | -1.3 Units at Pebble Beach) | One and Done Total for 2024: $1,112,658.00 (Max Homa at Pebble, $35,313)
PGA Tour expert picks for WM Phoenix Open: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done
Top 10 pick for the WM Phoenix Open: J.T. Poston (+300)
I refuse to get off of the J.T. Poston train with the way this guy is playing right now. Poston has four-straight Top 20 finishes to begin his 2024 so far and has been stellar tee-to-green, even if a lack of distance off of the tee hinders his strokes gained off the tee number a bit. When you combine that with an elite short game, it's no wonder he finished T11 and T23 in 2021 and 2022 here, respectively. Sure, he missed the cut last year, but I think he bounces back and keeps his hot form going in a field that is weaker than you might expect.
Outright Winner pick for the WM Phoenix Open (0.5 Units): Justin Thomas (+1000)
Speaking of great course history being married to current form, that's why I'm taking the short-ish odds on Justin Thomas to win the WM Phoenix Open this week. Over his last 12 measured rounds, Thomas actually leads this field in strokes gained tee-to-green at 2.91. He's flushing the ball right now and has recaptured his elite form, reeling off a T3 at the Hero, a T3 at The American Express and a T6 at Pebble Beach in his most recent starts. Factoring in that he also has just one finish worse than T8 in his last five starts at TPC Scottsdale (a T13 in 2021) and you have to like his chances.
One and Done pick for the WM Phoenix Open: Beau Hossler
We'll get a bit more on Beau Hossler in a bit, but I love the way he's playing right now as he comes in off of back-to-back Top 15 finishes in the past two weeks. While his overall profile might not be traditionally what suits success at this course, he did finish T14 at the WM Phoenix Open last year, which is enough for me to take the bait and play him in One and Done.
WM Phoenix Open picks: More best bets for PGA Tour
Justin Thomas to finish Top 5 at WM Phoenix Open (+260)
I'm doubling up on Justin Thomas this week to have a ton of J.T. (both Thomas and Poston) on the card, but for good reason. This is what I like to call Scheffler insurance. Scheffler is unbettable at 5/1 odds or worse to win right now, but he has a great chance to three-peat here. I still expect Thomas to be in contention, though, for all the reasons mentioned, so we'll take solid odds here for him to finish inside the Top 5, which he's done three times in the past five years.
Beau Hossler to finish Top 20 at WM Phoenix Open (+230, DraftKings)
Told you that we'd get to more on Hossler here in a bit. He has been basically dead-average in terms of strokes gained ball striking over the last 8 and 20 rounds, which shows at least some consistency. He has been able to more than make up for it, though, with his scrambling and short game, which is why he had success in Scottsdale a year ago. Riding some good vibes in a relatively weak field, I think Hossler is live to register back-to-back Top 20 finishes at this event.
Kevin Yu to finish Top 20 at WM Phoenix Open (+300, DraftKings)
Another player who you've seen on the card this year, I love the way TPC Scottsdale should suit Kevin Yu. He's a tee-to-green wizard, gaining 1.86 strokes ball striking over his last 12 rounds, and the WM Phoenix Open and this course tend to favor guys who struggle putting, which is Yu to a tee. More importantly, he's more than familiar with the area having played his college golf at Arizona State and residing in Scottsdale. This and several good finishes to begin 2024 lead me to believe he enjoys a strong homecoming this week inside the Top 20.
Longshot Pick to win the WM Phoenix Open (0.1 Units): Nick Taylor (+17000)
Nick Taylor finished second in this event last year and, though he's far from a long-hitter off of the tee, he's been spiking lately with his approach play, gaining 0.82 strokes per round in that department over the last 12 rounds. With some good vibes from last year, he's worth a sprinkle to find some better overall form and potentially even contend this week.