WNBA Playoff bracket if the season ended today

Which WNBA teams make the cut and who would face off in the first round?
Atlanta Dream v Indiana Fever
Atlanta Dream v Indiana Fever / Chet White/GettyImages
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The WNBA playoffs are just around the corner.

Sadly, that means that perhaps the most memorable season in the W's history is almost over. The regular season ends on Sep. 19, which is mere days away, but it will be an action-packed end to the 2024 campaign.

Ten of the 12 teams in the league will play five games in a span of 10 days; only the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever have four remaining.

Every fan knows that A'ja Wilson will win the MVP, and most have come to grips with the fact that Caitlin Clark will be honored as the Rookie of the Year in a loaded, league-transforming class.

But much of the WNBA playoff picture is blurry at this point, as much movement is expected in the final weeks of the season. The teams are so tightly packed record-wise, and many of the league's top teams play each other in games that will certainly decide playoff seeding.

Lots will change in 10 days, but here is what the WNBA playoff bracket would look like if the season ended today:

Who would make the WNBA Playoffs?

In: New York Liberty, Minnesota Lynx, Connecticut Sun, Las Vegas Aces, Seattle Storm, Indiana Fever, Phoenix Mercury, Chicago Sky

Out: Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics, Dallas Wings, Los Angeles Sparks

While these two lists seems cut-and-dry, the No. 8 seed is still very much up for grabs.

Currently, the Mercury and all of the teams listed before them have clinched playoff berth, but only the Wings and Sparks have been eliminated from contention.

This means that the Sky, Dream, and Mystics are playing for a single spot in the playoffs, and they are all within two wins of each other in the standings.

Each of these three teams will play five more games, so anything is possible, but as of now, the Chicago Sky have the edge,

What would the first round matchups be in the WNBA Playoffs?

The WNBA playoffs pit the highest seed against the lowest seed in the first round, the second highest seed against the second lowest seed, and so on. This means that the following matchups would take place:

  • Chicago Sky (8) @ New York Liberty (1)
  • Seattle Storm (5) @ Las Vegas Aces (4)
  • Phoenix Mercury (7) @ Minnesota Lynx (2)
  • Indiana Fever (6) @ Connecticut Sun (3)

Let's take a look at these matchups in-depth:

Chicago Sky (8) @ New York Liberty (1)

The Chicago Sky won the WNBA title in 2021 and knocked out the New York Liberty in the first round of the 2022 playoffs. But a lot has changed since then.

New York is now the frontrunner, as they will likely finish with the league's best record after being the best team in the W all season.

Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu are a difficult three-headed monster to contain. But when you factor in great role players like Betnijah Laney, Courtney Vandersloot, and Leonie Fiebich, stopping this team feels like an impossible task for anyone.

Especially for the Chicago Sky, who have had some minor peaks, but mostly valleys in their 2024 season.

They are a young bunch for the most part, but their play this year has been nowhere near the level of the Liberty. After a stunning victory over New York in the beginning of the season, Chicago has lost three straight contests to the Liberty by double-digits.

Not only this, but the Sky will be operating without their star rookie.

Angel Reese announced that she will be undergoing wrist surgery and will miss the remainder of the the 2024 season, so that puts the Sky's chances at nearly zero.

The Liberty would likely win this in a 2-0 sweep.

Seattle Storm (5) @ Las Vegas Aces (4)

This would be a travesty of a matchup because two of the league's best teams would have to face off, and only one could advance.

But that is the state of the W, there is so much talent that incredible players and teams will be left out every year.

These squads met in the semifinals of the WNBA playoffs in 2022, with the Aces winning the series 3-1 en route to their first championship.

The Aces had a rough start to the season without "point god" Chelsea Gray, but they have figured things out as of late. Las Vegas has won four of its last five games, with their lone loss being a four-point defeat on the road against the New York Liberty without A'ja Wilson in the lineup.

The Storm, on the other hand, have been fairly consistent all season, but they have lost six of their last nine games. Seattle is trending in the wrong direction at this point in the season, and the Aces are red-hot looking to prove that they are still among the best teams in the W.

On the quest for a third straight title, I think the Aces win this series 2-1, pulling off a tough road win in Seattle to clinch. This sets them up for a juggernaut matchup against the New York Liberty, who they defeated in the Finals last season.

Phoenix Mercury (7) @ Minnesota Lynx (2)

The Minnesota Lynx have arguably been the best team in the league coming out of the Olympic break. The Phoenix Mercury, on the other hand, have arguably been the worst.

Minnesota has won nine of their last 10 games, while Phoenix has only won three. Not only this, but the Mercury have only won a single game in four contests against the Lynx this season, with their lone win being all the way back on June 7.

Napheesa Collier has been one of the best players in the league all season, and head coach Cheryl Reeve is as good as they come.

The Lynx won the Commissioner's Cup earlier this season and their head coach led Team USA to a Gold Medal, so it should not shock anyone to see them make a run at the WNBA Championship either.

The Mercury have some of the most talented players in the league in Brittney Griner, Kahleah Copper, and Diana Taurasi, but the whole has not been as strong as its parts.

The depth and well-rounded nature of the Lynx combined with stifling defense should be enough to fend off the Mercury. The Lynx would win this series 2-0.

Indiana Fever (6) @ Connecticut Sun (3)

This may be the most fun series of the first round if the season ended today.

The Connecticut Sun have been one of the premier teams in the league for a few consecutive years now, but their hype and media attention has never matched their success.

On the contrary, Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever are the hottest ticket in women's sports and have not been successful in the recent years.

In what will truly be a battle of styles, this projects to be perhaps the most exciting series.

The Sun started out like gangbusters, but have since cooled, and the Fever started off in the gutter but have been red-hot lately.

Clark may be the best player in the W besides A'ja Wilson, so I will bet on her and the power of friendship that the Fever seem to have. This surprise upset ends with a Fever win at home, as they win 2-1.

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