Predictable Ross Atkins mistake laid the foundation for Blue Jays losing Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Toronto Blue Jays were given a hard deadline to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That deadline was Monday night, before the team's first full-squad workout of spring training on Tuesday morning. And in what is perhaps the most predictable development of all time, the two sides failed to find common ground before the buzzer sounded.

Guerrero, who will turn 26 in March, is now slated to become a free agent next winter. The former MVP runner-up, coming off arguably his best individual campaign to date, is in line for hefty compensation in a competitive marketplace. Juan Soto set the MLB record for guaranteed money this winter, netting $765 million from the New York Mets. Guerrero probably won't eclipse that number, but he'll probably end up far closer than the Blue Jays seem comfortable with.

It's hard to overstate Guerrero's value when considering the intersection of age and productivity. He's one of the most well-rounded hitters in baseball, coming off a 30-home run, 103-RBI season in which he batted .323 with a whopping .940 OPS. Much like his father, Guerrero can hit for average and power in equal measure, with a swing that doesn't whiff much.

This feels like a death knell for Guerrero Jr.'s future with the team. On Tuesday, he expressed a desire to remain in Toronto long term, but also acknowledged an unavoidable truth: the Blue Jays have 29 other teams to outbid now.

Assuming Ross Atkins cannot land the plane next offseason, his biggest regret won't be failing to get a deal done this winter. It will be his failure to lock up Guerrero all the way back in 2021.

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Blue Jays will come to regret procrastinating on potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract extension

We all learn the same lesson during our school days: procrastination is bad. Never put off 'til tomorrow what you can get done today. It's a lesson as old as time, and it's one the Blue Jays probably should've heeded when trying to lock up Guerrero Jr.

Vladdy was the American League's MVP runner-up all the way back in 2021, his age-22 season. It was a magical coming-out party, and it established the talented corner infielder as a budding superstar. Around that time, Fernando Tatis Jr. had agreed to a 14-year, $340 million contract with the San Diego Padres. That reset the market. It was a new high-water mark.

There's a world in which the Blue Jays get ahead of the curve and sign Guerrero to the Tatis deal after his breakout season. Now, Toronto is left "chasing the market," as Sportsnet's Shi Davidi puts it.

"By how much is up for debate but by not finding a long-term deal early, the Blue Jays have left themselves chasing the market. Had they signed Guerrero to the Tatis deal after his 2021 season, they would have essentially bought his free-agent years for roughly $270 million over 10 years, since they paid $70.8 million for his four arbitration seasons."

This is probably a good lesson for most teams with high-ranking young stars. The MLB market is ballooning with each passing season. Shohei Ohtani got $700 million a year ago. Now Juan Soto gets $765 million. Eventually, somebody will exceed even that number. It could be next winter, for all we know. Guerrero Jr.'s bound to field some competitive offers, ones that will far exceed the $24 million-plus per year that Toronto may have been able to coax Vladdy into when he was still just entering his prime.

If the Blue Jays were willing to bid on Juan Soto around his current number, it's a bit baffling that Atkins and company got stingy with Guerrero Jr. at the negotiating table. Toronto is only hurting itself after years of failed ambition on the free agency front. The Blue Jays almost signed Ohtani, then almost signed Soto. Now they will probably almost keep Guerrero Jr.