Predicted Sam Darnold price range gives Vikings every reason to bank on J.J. McCarthy

Few teams carry as much intrigue into this NFL offseason than the Minnesota Vikings. Will the team hitch its wagon to Sam Darnold after his resurgent regular season, or did two disastrous weeks do enough to convince them to move on and clear a path for former top-10 pick J.J. McCarthy? Whatever Minnesota decides, it's going to have a massive impact on how the spring unfolds, from free agency (where Darnold would be easily the most accomplished quarterback available) to the draft (where teams who strike out on the open market will be desperate to land Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders).

From the sound of it, though, it look like it might not be much of a decision for Kwesi Adofo-Mensah at all. While there's still a long way to go until the start of free agency, and we still don't know just how much the market will bear for Darnold, the most recent educated guesses suggest that he'll be pushed way out of the Vikings' price range.

Minnesota can't afford to bring Sam Darnold back at reported price range

In his breakdown of the top 50 free agents available this offseason, ESPN's Matt Bowen ranks Darnold at No. 6, some 26 spots ahead of the next QB on the list (Pittsburgh's Justin Fields, which underscores just how barren this market is under center). He then estimates that Darnold could receive something in the nine figures:

"Several execs have Darnold in that Baker Mayfield range of contracts, which is around three years and $100 million with strong guarantees," Bowen writes. "The Raiders and Giants — both picking outside the top two spots in the draft — might need to pay a quarterback."

With a down draft class ahead (even Ward and Sanders are hardly slam dunks) and not a ton of other options via free agency or trade, it's not hard to see some desperate team talking themselves into giving Darnold something along those lines — which would, in effect, function a bit like a two-year deal with team options for a year or two afterward. It would get Darnold paid, while not hamstringing whichever team is taking the risk too badly into the future.

It would also make Minnesota's decision a whole lot easier. If Darnold were willing to take, say, $20 million a year to return, you could make the argument that keeping a known quantity around was worth the Vikings' while as McCarthy returns from injury. But there's simply no justification for tying up that much of the team's cap sheet, especially ahead of a draft in which it only projects to have four picks. The team drafted McCarthy because it believed in him as the future, and if Darnold can't be an affordable bridge any longer, it's time to move on.