Predicting when all 11 undefeated college football teams will lose their first games

You are what your record says you are, and through the first seven weeks of the college football season these teams were unblemished. On Friday night, No. 2 Oregon and No. 13 BYU got conference wins over Purdue and Oklahoma State to improve to 7-0 on the season. Both teams are in the driver's seat to get to their respective conference championship games later on in the campaign.

However, nine other teams in FBS are still undefeated. Army and Navy are undefeated in the ACC. Liberty still hasn't lost in CUSA. BYU is joined by Iowa State as an undefeated in the Big 12. Oregon is one of three undefeated teams in the Big Ten, alongside Indiana and Penn State. Miami and Pittsburgh have not lost yet over in the ACC, and the only undefeated team left in the SEC is Texas.

So what I want to do today is outline when all 11 of these teams are going to lose their first games of the season. Unless Texas or the future Big Ten champion runs the gauntlet, I don't see a team finishing the season undefeated. Okay, Liberty might, but that would be because the Flames' 12-0 may not be good enough to make the College Football Playoff. They must make up a game somehow.

Let's work our way through this alphabetically from Army all the way through Texas to figure this out.

Army Black Knights

Don't kid yourselves. Army is a very serious threat to win the Group of Five out of The American. While they could conceivably lose this week to East Carolina, I don't see the Black Knights falling until late in November. They have a huge game in primetime vs. Notre Dame on Nov. 23. I would be shocked if the Fighting Irish did not come out on top. If Army survives, they have Navy, the AAC title and the playoff.

Projected first loss for Army Black Knights: Nov. 23 vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Yankee Stadium)

BYU Cougars

I wrote about this earlier in the day. Against my better judgement, I have BYU going 11-2 (8-1) this season by losing its first game of the season at Arizona State on Nov. 23. The Cougars improved to 7-0 on the year on Friday with a home win over Oklahoma State, but they have tricky conference games at UCF, at Utah and at Arizona State. A team like Iowa State looms large in Arlington for the title bout.

Projected first loss for BYU Cougars: Nov. 23 at Arizona State Sun Devils

Indiana Hoosiers

I could be totally wrong here, but I went out on a limb on Thursday's episode of False Start by saying Nebraska is going to beat Indiana in Bloomington. It is going to be a great game, but I have no idea who is going to win. Should the Hoosiers survive a home scare on Saturday vs. Nebraska, I have a hard time seeing them get to 11-0 with a huge road date at Ohio State later in the year on Nov. 23.

Projected first loss for Indiana Hoosiers: Oct. 19 vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Iowa State Cyclones

Against my better judgement, I am all in on the Iowa State Cyclones. I think they are by far and away the best team in the Big 12 this year. While they have a very difficult conference schedule left to be played, all of their toughest games are at home. At Utah could have been challenging, but the Utes are a shell of themselves. I have Iowa State winning the Big 12, but losing in the national quarterfinals.

Projected first loss for Iowa State Cyclones: Dec. 31 vs. No. 5-6 seed in Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Liberty Flames

No, I am not rooting for Liberty to go undefeated. The Flames may have been my pick to win the Group of Five again at the start of the season, but CUSA being weak and losing the Appalachian State game from the calendar does not give us a compelling playoff resume. Fortunately for everyone outside of Lynchburg, I see Tyson Helton's Western Kentucky Hilltoppers getting the best of them.

Projected first loss for Liberty Flames: Nov. 23 vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Miami Hurricanes

Miami was my pick to win the ACC at the start of the year, and it may end up being that in the end. Right now, I think Clemson is the best team in the ACC because the Tigers are crushing their opponents. Miami's six wins have been against either weak competitive or have come in a fluky variety. While they could lose to Louisville this week, I think they are going down vs. Duke later on.

Projected first loss for Miami Hurricanes: Nov. 2 vs. Duke Blue Devils

Navy Midshipmen

It is not going to be that much longer before the Navy Midshipmen finally lose a game. While it has been a cute story that Army and Navy are both undefeated as conference foes in The American, they both have to not only play each other, but most face Notre Dame this season. Since the Midshipmen draw the Fighting Irish first, they should suffer their first loss of the season weeks before Army does.

Projected first loss for Navy Midshipmen: Oct. 26 vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (MetLife Stadium)

Oregon Ducks

After getting to 7-0, Oregon should get to 12-0 with the Ducks' remaining Big Ten games. Hosting Illinois next week could be challenging, but I think Dan Lanning's team has this. When it comes to whoever they face in the Big Ten Championship Game, I feel they should win that game right now en route to the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff. They will fall in the national title bout.

Projected first loss for Oregon Ducks: Jan. 20 vs. national championship (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

Penn State Nittany Lions

Like clockwork, Penn State is going to go 10-2 this season because James Franklin runs a driving academy in Central Pennsylvania. They are going to lose two regular season games this season. While I have no idea when the second one will occur, they will probably lose to the hammer in their hammer vs. nail rivalry with Ohio State in two weeks. It will be close, but it will be no cigar, I am afraid.

Projected first loss for Penn State Nittany Lions: Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Pittsburgh Panthers

This is the hardest to peg because death, taxes and Pitt Pitt-ing when it is the least advantageous to Pitt. Are the 2024 Pittsburgh Panthers 2 Legit 2 Pitt? No, it is in their blood. This is how they are and this is what they do. They are going to lose one of their next two games, potentially both. I think losing a game at home to Syracuse in a primetime affair Thursday night is just par for the course for them.

Projected first loss for Pittsburgh Panthers: Oct. 24 vs. Syracuse Orange

Texas Longhorns

Although I am personally rooting for it, I am skeptical that my beloved Georgia Bulldogs are going to mess with the Texas Longhorns this weekend. While they have the talent to run the gauntlet and go 16-0, my new pick to win the national championship is going to lose a game before the College Football Playoff. It may be at Arkansas or in the SEC championship, but it is at College Station for me.

Projected first loss for Texas Longhorns: Nov. 30 at Texas A&M Aggies