Predicting which team will hand Chiefs first loss of season

The Kansas City Chiefs remain undefeated after securing a narrow 30-24 overtime victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

The Chiefs improved to an 8-0 record for the first time in franchise history, but it’s still too early to begin pondering whether Kansas City can become the first team to finish the regular season with an undefeated record since the New England Patriots accomplished the feat in 2007.

Kansas City holds the league’s only spotless record this season, but they have looked far from unbeatable this season. Six of their eight wins have been decided by one score, suggesting that their margin of error is quite slim. Eventually, one wrong bounce or lapse in judgment could earn them their first loss of the 2024 season.

The Chiefs have not lost a game since last Christmas, but any team in the league could beat them on any given Sunday — it’s one of the most fundamental laws of football. Still, there are some teams that will have a better chance to topple the reigning Super Bowl champions than others.

So which team is most likely to take down the reigning Super Bowl champions?

Bills could hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season

Kansas City’s toughest challenge will come against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11.

The team most likely to defeat the Chiefs will need to possess three key qualities: the ability to possess the ball, protect the ball, and pass the ball. That will require good coaching, discipline, and mistake-free football.

The Chiefs are no longer the offensive powerhouse they once were. Instead, Kansas City have minimized mistakes and followed New England’s dynastic blueprint, relying on discipline, fundamentals and experience to win games. Much like the Los Angeles Dodgers did in the 2024 World Series, the Chiefs have wagered that their opponents will eventually beat themselves.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown for 17 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. With their quarterback protecting the football, Buffalo has been able to post a league-best +11 turnover differential. Meanwhile, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has already thrown nine interceptions, putting him on pace for a career-high 19 interceptions this season.

The Chiefs have taken a slow burn approach on offense, bypassing explosive plays in favor of efficiency and clock management. Kansas City has an average time of possession of 32:39, the third-highest in the league.

The emergence of Bills running backs James Cook and Ray Davis has allowed Buffalo to run the ball more effectively alongside Allen’s rushing ability, which should help the team control the time of possession.

The Bills are also no strangers to defeating the Chiefs. Mahomes has lost three consecutive regular season games against the Bills. Having to travel to Highmark Stadium for this late afternoon matchup won’t make it any easier to break that losing streak.

Aside from Buffalo, Kansas City’s remaining schedule is fairly easygoing. It’s safe to say the Chiefs should be able to handle the Carolina Panthers in Week 12 and Cleveland Browns in Week 15.

Kansas City’s toughest tests will come against the Houston Texans in Week 16 and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.

The remaining four contests are against divisional opponents. The Chiefs will host the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13 and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15, and they’ll face the Denver Broncos twice. Divisional games are never easy, and all three of those scrappy opponents could take down the Chiefs if they have an off night.

If the Chiefs can somehow make it to Week 13 without a blemish on their record, whispers of an undefeated season could begin to take shape.