Game of the weekend: Aston Villa vs. Newcastle (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. EST)
Aston Villa's waving goodbye to the Champions League on Tuesday kind of has whatever context you want to give it. Either they're the team that was outclassed enough to be down 5-1 on aggregate at one point. Or it was a heroic, go-out-on-their-shields beautiful death and if it wasn't for Gianluigi Donnaruma being 8' 6" would have seen Villa pull off one of the better Champions League comebacks in history. It's probably both. Either way, if Villa would like more of those nights next season, they have to refocus on a dime, as they're hosting the league's form team in Newcastle Saturday.
While you might have had your gaze turned toward the continental competition, Newcastle have zoomed into third place in the league by winning their last two matched by a combined 9-1. In fact, they've won their last six, batting away any thoughts of a hangover after winning the League Cup. The schedule has been a little kind, as they've seen either the unfocused or the balloon-handed or both in the last few weeks. Villa aren't any of that.
The problem for Villa is that they've gotten utterly labeled by Newcastle in their last three matches against them, losing all three by a combined 11-2. A loss isn't fatal for Villa. They'd be a max four points behind City and they still play them next week to reel them back in. But a win would pull them within two of Newcastle and possibly over City and Chelsea and level with Forest. No time to feel sorry for themselves.
And the rest...
Brentford vs. Brighton (Saturday, 10 a.m. EST)
Two teams that at least whispered about getting involved in the top five but watched the pack zoom on without them while they were turned to the buffet table. Brighton's chase fell apart after failing to win any of their last four in the league, with opponents finishing just about every chance they get. In their last three matches they've conceded just 3.8 xGA but have seen their twine dented seven times. They created more than enough to win, too, but any team that gives up 15 shots to Leicester probably deserves what it gets.
Brentford have been experts at throwing wrenches into their opponents' bigger plans, drawing with Arsenal and Chelsea in their last two as well as beating Bournemouth not all that long ago. But the two draws have probably taken them out of European consideration, five points adrift of the teams ahead of them.
Crystal Palace vs. Bournemouth (Saturday, 10 a.m. EST)
Bournemouth's Champions League chase is almost certainly over, but the hunt of a spot in the other European competitions is still on, which would still be a gargantuan accomplishment for them. They finally clawed out a win on Monday over Fulham, their first of any kind since February. Bournemouth are six points off Villa in 7th, but there's a not totally outlandish scenario(s) where 8th lands a Conference League spot. They'll have to hold off Brighton and Fulham just for that, though.
Palace's season comes down to next week and their FA Cup semifinal, so this is something of a tuneup. Seeing as how they've lost their last two games 10-2, it's kind of obvious where their focus is.
Everton vs. Manchester City (Saturday, 10 a.m. EST)
Everton had managed a couple draws with City when they were completely unstable and City was their usual death machine. So this one has a whole new layer to it now that David Moyes has made Everton functional and City often resemble something Homer Simpson built. While City might be feeling themselves a bit after storming Palace off the field and proving Kevin De Bruyne still has a pulse, this is still a team only two weeks removed from one of the more insipid 90 minutes none of us will get back in that 0-0 draw with United. Everton have already confounded more functional sides like Liverpool and Arsenal this month. This is City's last trip to Goodison Park, it could get awfully sticky for them. They don't have a lot of leeway, as dropped points could see Chelsea and/or Villa leap over them in the table.
West Ham vs. Southampton (Saturday, 10 a.m. EST)
Moving on...
Fulham vs. Chelsea (Sunday, 9 a.m. EST)
A west London derby that carries about as much intrigue as it ever has. Chelsea have only been able to beat relegation fodder and Conference League whatsits since Christmas, and then couldn't even manage that last week in having to desperately scramble back a draw against Ipswich at home. They've now slipped out of the top five, and Villa are level with them on points (though Chelsea have the better goal-difference). They don't have the kindest run-in, they don't seem to know what they are or what they want to do, and rumors are flying that their manager could have a date with a figurative axe at the end of the season while he fights with the fans. So basically, CHELSEA.
Fulham could have made things really spicy had they won on Monday against Bournemouth, but with the loss they're basically in the race for 8th, level with Bournemouth for that spot that will wait to see if a Conference League place just falls on it once everything shakes out. But it's still their most local rival. Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, and Newcastle have all failed to win at Craven Cottage, and all of them aren't nearly as goofy as Chelsea.
Ipswich vs. Arsenal (Sunday, 9 a.m. EST)
Arsenal's b-team could hand the trophy to Liverpool in this one if they become only the second team to lose Portman Road this season (the other being the aforementioned bonkers Chelsea outfit). Arsenal's entire focus is now on the Champions League semifinal, so their next two games--this one and Wednesday against Palace--should feature some pretty mix-and-match lineups before a full week break to that semifinal. Ipswich might be feeling themselves after getting a draw at Stamford Bridge and also the freedom in knowing their relegation is basically confirmed. It's only after we've lost everything...
Manchester United vs. Wolves (Sunday, 9 a.m. EST)
United will be distracted by whatever happens in their Europa League quarter the Thursday before this, either eagerly awaiting a semifinal that could salvage something out of this morass or having to face up entirely to what a complete disaster they are. We've all been through that, and it makes for a long, empty pizza box and cheap whiskey bottle-filled weekend. Wolves are one of the form teams in the league and will have the better vibes no matter what kind of mood United are in.
Leicester vs. Liverpool (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. EST)
This could be the title-clincher for Liverpool if Arsenal's subs do find a way to lose to Ipswich a couple hours earlier. It could also be the final nail for Leicester, who have to win to avert confirmation of their relegation. Liverpool have been making hard work of everything of late, so even though it seems far-fetched that this will turn into something of a slog, that's been their way recently. No one will care, however, if it's the one that attaches the red and white ribbons to the Premier League trophy. Even if it doesn't, it's Spurs the following Sunday. It's not going any farther than that.
Spurs vs. Nottingham Forest (Monday, 3 p.m. EST)
It's getting nervy for Forest, who have been passed by Newcastle, have City right on their ass, and looked decidedly buffoonish against Everton. It's not hard to see City and Villa getting past them before the season is out. In Forest's favor, their run-in is pretty easy, as they have games against Spurs, Leicester, West Ham, and Palace, all of whom won't have much to play for. If Tottenham go out of the Europa League the Thursday before this, the atmosphere at this one should be pretty choice. Considering how Spurs defend counters, "toxic" might not even begin to describe it.