Projected Atlanta Braves rotation if Alex Anthopoulos balks at Max Fried asking price

The Atlanta Braves will strive to put their god-awful 2024 campaign behind them this winter, but complications are bound to arise. Alex Anthopoulos has a long history of extending his best players before free agency, which makes Max Fried's impending availability something of an outlier. Aside from Freddie Freeman and a select few others, it just doesn't get to this point with Braves staples very often.

Fried, 30, is one of the best pitchers in the upcoming free-agency class. There is always demand for quality pitching, so the expectation is that Fried will command a hefty chunk of change on his next contract.

Spotrac's projection of $22.7 million annually could place Fried in the ballpark of six years and $136 million. That is a perfectly reasonable price given Fried's resume, but with how the Braves traditionally do business, it feels like the veteran southpaw is bound to land elsewhere. He's a Los Angeles native who played high school ball with Jack Flaherty, so the Dodgers feel like unofficial frontrunners.

If the Braves refuse to cave to Fried's asking price, it leaves a gaping hole in the rotation. That is especially true with Charlie Morton expected to retire. Atlanta will benefit immensely from the return of projected Cy Young candidate Spencer Strider in 2025, but losing Fried and Morton reopens that gaping hole in the fifth rotation slot.

Let's take a stab at projecting what exactly the Braves' rotation might look like.

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Projected Braves starting rotation if Max Fried walks in free agency

There's a good chance the Braves add another starter (or two) in free agency, even if it's not Fried. There will be less expensive options, or perhaps discount aces available for a short-term lease. What if the Braves took a one-year flier on Justin Verlander? Or swung for a Mets expat, like Luis Severino or Jose Quintana? That all sounds realistic on paper, but the Braves could also prefer internal promotion.

A.J. Smith-Shawver appears to have the upper hand as Brian Snitker's pitching of choice for Game 1 of the Wild Card Round. That essentially means Smith-Shawver was the No. 6 starter in the organization, winning out over the likes of 2023 All-Star Bryce Elder or Ian Anderson. His postseason heat check didn't go very well, but Smith-Shawver flashes impressive stuff and he could be close to ready once next season arrives.

The Braves can feel pretty great about this top-four. There isn't a more potent 1-2 punch than Spencer Strider and Chris Sale, assuming all goes well on the health front. Reynaldo Lopez is on fraud watch, but it's hard to argue with a 1.99 ERA through 135.2 innings. He figured something out in Atlanta. Spencer Schwellenbach emerged from a thicket of competition to claim the fifth starting spot this season. He was particularly excellent down the stretch, finishing his rookie campaign with a 3.35 ERA and 127 strikeouts through 123.2 innings pitched.

If the Braves can add a half-decent vet in that fifth spot, there won't be much to worry about. Fried has been incredible throughout eight years in Atlanta, but the Braves can justify the conservative approach (even if a contender of Atlanta's magnitude should feel bad about being cheap).