The Detroit Tigers were in an interesting spot, entering spring training with only four starting rotation locks. That number quickly dipped to three when it was revealed that Alex Cobb, the team's first free-agent addition of the offseason, would not be ready in time for Opening Day as he deals with right hip inflammation.
Cobb's injury meant that the Tigers had two Opening Day rotation spots to fill, and at least four possible internal options ready to step in. Sure, the team could base its decision on seniority, but a better way for manager A.J. Hinch to make this decision might be to hand the spots to those who perform the best in spring training.
If Hinch was to make that decision, here's what the team's Opening Day rotation might look like.
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Projected Tigers Opening Day rotation if A.J. Hinch bases decision on spring training results
Rotation Order | Starting Pitcher |
|---|---|
1 | Tarik Skubal |
2 | Jack Flaherty |
3 | Reese Olson |
4 | Casey Mize |
5 | Keider Montero |
As mentioned above, the first three rotation spots are locked in. Tarik Skubal is the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, Jack Flaherty pitched like an All-Star while he was in a Tigers uniform last season, and Reese Olson had a rock-solid 3.53 ERA in 22 starts in 2024. The last two spots are where things get interesting.
If Hinch bases this decision solely on who performs during the spring, Casey Mize and Keider Montero should make the team's rotation over Jackson Jobe and Kenta Maeda. Frankly, it wouldn't even be close, either.
Through their first two spring training outings, Mize (five innings) and Montero (three innings) have combined to allow just four hits and two walks without surrendering a single run in eight innings of work, to go along with nine strikeouts, five of which came from Mize.
Simply put, both Mize and Montero have dominated in spring training. Montero has even flashed some absurd spin on his curveball and slider.
Keider Montero, spinning it:
— Chris McCosky (@cmccosky) March 1, 2025
2 IP
0 R
0 H
1 BB
4 K
--2,900 rpm on slider
--3,000 rpm on curve. https://t.co/SQoShgcYNH
For reference, only six pitchers had more spin on their sliders last season, according to Baseball Savant, and only 14 pitchers had more spin on their curveballs. Montero flashed simply absurd stuff in his outing on Saturday, and the results showed.
It's important to note that spring training statistics often don't mean much, and the Philadelphia Phillies lineup that Mize and Montero faced on Saturday wasn't loaded with much proven talent. But when comparing them to Jobe and Maeda, it isn't even close.
Jobe allowed two runs in two innings in his lone spring training outing (while he did flash some good stuff), and Maeda struggled in his second appearance as well. Considering Jobe has just two MLB regular season innings under his belt in his career, and Maeda had a 7.42 ERA as a starter last season, it's not as if they have much of a case if they don't impress in camp.
Making decisions based entirely on spring training is almost never a good idea, but without a clear frontrunner to win those two rotation spots, it makes sense for the Tigers to consider this approach. If they do, Hinch won't have to think hard based on what we've seen thus far.