Kentucky had a golden opportunity on Saturday afternoon, welcoming the No. 1-ranked Auburn Tigers to Rupp Arena with a chance to make a run at a top-four seed and a double bye in the SEC Tournament and potentially move up to the two line in the NCAA Tournament. Instead, the Wildcats fell completely flat, getting diced up by Auburn's backcourt in a 94-78 loss that was more or less over by halftime.
There's of course no real shame in losing to Auburn this year; all but two teams on their schedule so far have suffered the same fate. But it's hard not to feel a bit deflated by the way in which Mark Pope's team lost, especially with the news that senior wing Jaxson Robinson has been lost for the year due to a wrist injury. The insult and the injury leave real questions about where exactly this Kentucky team is headed, and what its ceiling really is this year.
Kentucky projected AP Top 25 ranking after loss to Auburn
The Wildcats entered the week ranked No. 17 in the latest AP Top 25 poll, surviving a scare from Oklahoma on the road before falling to Auburn on Saturday. Voters have been showing a lot of respect to the Cats this year based on their strength of schedule, and their nine Quad 1 wins that are still tied for fourth-most in the country. But you'd have to think that the loss to the Tigers will at least drop Kentucky outside of the top 20; the best-case scenario would probably have them falling below Memphis and Louisville but remaining ahead of teams like Purdue and Marquette, both of whom have been struggling a bit of late.
Neither of those teams can match Kentucky's resume. Marquette has just five Quad 1 wins, while Purdue has lost four of its last five games. And there probably won't be too many other big risers behind them, considering that Arizona, Creighton and Kansas all lost this weekend and the Cats have a head-to-head edge on No. 24 Mississippi State.
Kentucky bracketology, NCAA Tournament projection after loss to Auburn
Here's where things get a little iffier. Just about every bracket projection had the Wildcats entering the weekend as a three seed, and it's totally possible that's where they'll remain despite the Auburn loss; falling to the potential No. 1 overall seed can hardly be viewed as a demerit. But teams like St. John's, Iowa State, Michigan, Texas Tech, Clemson and Maryland all keep rising, and while Arizona, Purdue, Missouri and Marquette have helped Kentucky's seeding out of late, things could start to get a little crowded — especially if the Cats can't come away with a win in the regular-season finale at Missouri next weekend.
Lose that game, and even with a midweek win at home against LSU it's possible that Kentucky will have to play in the first round of the SEC Tournament. That opens up a whole host of downside scenarios, many of which could have the Cats as a four or even five seed if the bottom really falls out.