Projecting best, worst, and most realistic Chiefs scenarios in brutal 3-game stretch

Going into the final three weeks of the 2024 season, the Kansas City Chiefs are 13-1 and have a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills for the No. 1 seed in the AFC that comes with a much-needed bye week in the playoffs.

The NFL didn't do the Chiefs any favors with the schedule either. Kansas City is in a stretch where they play 3 games in 11 days, finish the season with two road games, and haven't had a break since Week 6.

They beat the Browns on the road Sunday, but play a stout Texans squad on six days' rest, then travel to Pittsburgh for a Christmas Day tussle with the Steelers on four days' rest. They finish the season with a road game against a much improved Broncos team that lost in Kansas City when the Chiefs blocked a last-second field goal.

Now, the Chiefs must deal with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in the fourth quarter against the Browns. He has shown the ability to effectively play through similar injuries in the past, and he will need to again.

The Bills, on the other hand, get to coast into the postseason with a game against the Jets sandwhiched between two tilts against the Patriots.

All of these scenarios are resting on the assumption that the Bills will not stumble against the Patriots and Jets unexpectedly and will finish the season 14-3.

1. Best case scenario for the Kansas City Chiefs over the next three games

The Chiefs have an overwhelming need to find a way to get some off time for their banged-up stars. It's been a long season, and just like all teams this time of year, the Chiefs are banged up. Their bye week was way back in week six so finding a way to get some rest for Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and others is imperative.

The easiest way to do this is to win—plain and simple. If the Chiefs can win at home against the Texans and escape Pittsburgh with a holiday win, they will secure the number-one seed and a first-round postseason bye and rest their key players against the Broncos in week 18.

Of course, both the Steelers and Texans are jockeying for their own postseason positions and won't be giving in to anyone. The Chiefs will have to play better than they have in most of the games to beat either one, but by now, everyone knows they tend to rise to the occasion when necessary.

Because of Mahomes injury and how inconsistent the Chiefs' offense has looked this year, this seems to be the most likely scenario. With Mahomes, however, anything is possible.

2. Worst case scenario for the Kansas City Chiefs over the next three games

A beat-up Mahomes against three physical defenses isn't a good recipe for success. Throw in a situation at left tackle that is shaky at best and anyone can see disaster looming for the Chiefs.

If Mahomes can't go against the Texans or Steelers, or gets hurts again, or gets hurts worse, then they will just be playing out the rest of the season. This team's successes can be traced back to the belief of the players and coaches that somehow, no matter what, Mahomes will come through when he has to. Take that away, and it may not be a happy holiday season or new year in Kansas City.

Even if Mahomes plays, there is a good chance the Chiefs lose out. If that happens, and the Steelers can win out, the Chiefs will fall to the third seed, behind the Bills and Steelers. Kansas City and Pittsburgh would be tied at 13-4, but the Steelers would have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Chiefs would have to play all of their players in all three remaining games and wouldn't be able to rest anyone with a first-round bye. They would be worn out, beat up, and on a losing streak heading into the playoffs, and this doesn't seem to be a team that can overcome those things this deep into the season.

3. Most realistic scenario for the Kansas City Chiefs over the next three weeks

What seems the most likely to happen is that the Chiefs will lose at least two of their next three games. There is just too much stacked against them right now. If they lose against both the Texans and Steelers, they will still probably be able to rest their key players against Denver because it really won't matter to the Chiefs if they are the second or third team. They will lose the tie-breaker with the Bills, so resting players in Week 18 will be more important than seeding.

If Kansas City were to lose all three games, it would be unlikely to matter because they would probably already have the number two seed locked up. The Steelers have to play the Ravens this Saturday and finish with the Bengals. They will most likely lose at least one of those three games.

Of course, if the Chiefs go 1-1 in the next two games, they will have to play everyone against the Broncos in week 18 to secure that postseason bye.

Regardless, in every scenario except the worst one, the Chiefs should have the opportunity to rest the stars in either Week 18 if they are locked into the No. 2 seed, or they go 2-1 or better and secure the postseason bye, or they rest Mahomes, Kelce, and company in week 18 and get the first-round bye.