Projecting a Super Bowl winner thanks to 4 incredible Next Gen Super Bowl stats

Super Bowl LIX is almost here and fans have been inundated with content from media day and radio row in New Orleans all week long. Every pundit and their mother is predicting who's going to win between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, so it's understandable if there's some fatigue around the subject.

Still reading? Great, because we're going to throw our own pick in the mix but we have some intriguing data to back it up.

The NFL has been using "Next Gen Stats" since its launch in 2015, using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology to track players and never-before-seen metrics in real time. That's allowed the league to provide information and data on previously unknown aspects of the game.

The league released some interesting figures ahead of Sunday's big game that indicate four under-the-radar in-game situations will decide who lifts the Lombardi Trophy.

4 'Next Gen Stats' that will decide Super Bowl LIX

1. The Eagles defense will contain Patrick Mahomes' ability to quick-throw

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has picked up his pace when getting the ball out of his hands during the playoffs. He's averaging 2.50 seconds per throw which is over a third of a second faster than he was getting balls off in the regular season (2.87 seconds).

Mahomes led the league in completion percentage (83.6 percent) and success rate (60.9 percent) on quick throws this year, reaching at least a 60 percent success rate in each of the last four seasons. He's one of just six passers to do that at least once in their career since 2016.

However, the Eagles defense has allowed the fewest yards per attempt this year (5.5 yards) while facing the third-fastest quick-throw time (2.69 seconds). While Mahomes has dominated the tempo passing game, he hasn't faced Philadelphia's elite defense yet and the numbers suggest it will be up to the task.

2. Rushing Mahomes on third down will prevent a close game

Building off the Eagles' ability to frustrate passers when they need to get the ball off quick, Philadelphia must utilize its elite pass-rusing abilities to pressure Mahomes into even quicker decisions on third down. The 29-year-old thrives on third-and-long situations (seven or more yards), converting 37.8 percent this year which is the second highest league-wide.

Despite Kansas City running the sixth-most offensive plays in the league this year (1,128 plays), the team only had 169 total possessions (tied for 2nd-fewest). Mahomes' incredible success in extending drives is the biggest factor behind that. Per Team Rankings, Philadelphia has only allowed opponents to convert on 36.97 percent of third down attempts (9th best). This game could very well come down to one final drive with the ball in Mahomes' hands and getting him off the field on third and fourth down will be the deciding factor.

3. If the Eagles build a multi-possession lead they will hold it

The Chiefs are really good at eating clock even if they aren't always scoring touchdowns on drives. As a result, they've won an NFL-record 17 straight one-possession games. So, the key for Philadelphia's offense will be scoring quickly and often in the first half.

Spagnuolo will draw up pressure on Hurts often as well. His defense has generated 58 unblocked pressures this year (3rd most) and has forced Hurts into such situations at twice the rate he's experienced against any other team in his career (two total matchups). Hurts is 7-7 in games where he faces five or more unblocked pressures compared to 44-15 in those where only faces four or less. Those numbers aren't comforting but it's also not a total negative trend.

What it fails to take into account is the presence of Saquon Barkley in the backfield. He offers Hurts a safety valve in the check-down option and can chip-block effectively to buy his quarterback more time in the pocket. But most importantly, in situations when Philadelphia is a head by at least two scores, Barkley has been the final nail in the coffin for opponents. The run game dominated the Eagles' total play calls this year, the only team to call more runs than throws. If Kansas City finds itself down by nine or more points in the second half, it's likely lights out on a potential three-peat.

4. A.J. Brown will beat the Chiefs' press coverage

Philadelphia wideout, A.J. Brown, will be quarterback Jalen Hurts' top option on Sunday, so it's only natural to think Chiefs defensive coordinator is going to key in on him with double coverage and physical play. Well, Brown has thrived in those kinds of situations this season.

37.9 percent of his targets came when facing press coverage (less than three yards between a receiver and defender). He managed to average 3.5 yards per route in those instances, the highest amongst all receivers with at least 100 routes against press coverage this year.

Spagnuolo lined up his secondary in press on 51.5 percent of snaps this season, the highest rate in the league, and he's likely to do the same on Sunday against Brown. However, there's tape for both teams to study on this scenario. In Super Bowl LVII, Brown logged 18 routes against Spagnuolo's press and managed to tally an impressive 92 yards and a touchdown on just five targets. Even if the defender is attached to Brown at the hip, he's still going to burn Kansas City for some serious yardage and perhaps a score.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Chiefs 24