The New York Yankees knew rebuilding their 2025 roster would be challenging after losing Juan Soto in free agency. What GM Brian Cashman and his staff could not foresee was the challenge of remaining competitive without pitching ace Gerrit Cole.
It's hard to overstate how much Cole missing the entire season is going to impact New York. The hope was that he would combine with free agent signing Max Fried to form one of the top starting pitching duos in baseball. Subtracting Cole and Luis Gil from that five-man rotation drastically reduces the ceiling and floor of manager Aaron Boone's team.
The batting order was never going to be as formidable as it was last season without Soto in the middle of the lineup. Those weaknesses will only be highlighted after the weakening of the pitching staff. There's still time for Cashman to address the club's weakness at third base but it seems that the Yankees are content to head to Opening Day with their current options.
Yankees fans who want to know the full range of options for their favorite team this season can read on to discover the ugly truths.
Yankees best case win total: 95
Any smart fan in the Bronx should jump at the idea of the Yankees winning 95 games this season. Everything would have to go right for the team to achieve that total.
There is a lot of gnashing of teeth about the rotation right now, but this still could be a top-10 unit if everyone stays healthy and Gil returns for the back half of the season. Fried has Cy Young caliber stuff if he can make 30+ starts. Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren both have the ability to take steps forward in the back half of Boone's rotation. Even Carlos Rodon has an opportunity to pitch better than he did last season.
This win projects heavily on the ability of the Yankees' outfield to stay healthy. Aaron Judge would need to put up another MVP campaign. Cody Bellinger has to play like an above-average regular. Jasson Dominguez would have to win the Rookie of the Year awardy by a wide margin.
The infield would just need to be solid. A nice step forward from Anthony Volpe at short and a bounce back season from Paul Goldschmidt at first would give the lineup a lot more depth. Runs saved by the infied would turn into a popular topic of conversation.
The Yankees can't run away with the AL East given the current state of their roster but winning it with 95 wins is possible. That's the best New York can hope for this year.
Yankees worst case win total: 70
The Yankees started Spring Training with quality depth in the starting rotation but that's evaporated after injuries to Cole and Gil. If either Fried or Rodon suffer an injury before Gil gets back on the mound it could spell disaster for New York.
This projection also bakes in the very real possibility that Giancarlo Stanton does not play a single game this year. There's no timeline for his return at the moment and the Yankees would be wise to consider anything they get from him as a bonus at the designated hitter spot.
Judge is also a bigger injury risk than most fans care to admit. If he misses serious time it's going to rob the order of a hefty portion of their home run potential. Neither Dominguez or Belliger can shoulder that load for any lengh of time. Missing out on Stanton and Judge makes this lineup look rather ordinary rather quickly.
No fans want to hear that a 70-win season is possible but it's a looming scenario for a thin Yankees squad.
Yankees most likely win total: 86
Losing Cole is a disaster but the Yankees' front office deserves depth from at least starting the year with depth in the rotation. Even wantaway starter Marcus Stroman has the upside of an average starter if he approaches the season with the right attitude.
Add it all up and the concerns about the five-man rotation are being overstated by other sources. This should grow into a league-average unit if they stay reasonably healthy and Gil comes back to give them a boost. That does a lot to boost the team's floor.
The same applies to the batting order even without Stanton. It's not as if he was being counted on to play 120 games. He gets hurt every season. This might only be slightly worse than normal.
Elsewhere, the starting lineup looks solid everywhere other than third base. The outfield is athletic and has upside. The infield defense should be massively improved and Goldschmidt, Volpe and Jazz Chisholm are all reasonable bets to improve on their 2024 performances.
The additional wild card here is that the Yankees are likely going to be players at the trade deadline if it looks like they might not make the postseason. Adding one quality addition could go a long way toward helping New York finish at least 10 games over .500.