Ranking the biggest upsets in NFL Divisional Round weekend history

The well-rested Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions take the field on Saturday as the pursuit of reaching Super Bowl LIX is down to eight teams. Both clubs finished with 15-2 records this season, which may or may not be a good thing. Are Andy Reid’s team and Dan Campbell’s club both on upset alert?

Here is a look at the most surprising results from the AFC-NFC Divisional Playoffs dating back to the merger in 1970. For the first eight years, there was one wild card in each conference, and that team immediately played in the divisional round. The postseason format has changed over the years, but there have been more than a few shockers when it comes to this round.

The biggest surprises in the AFC-NFC Divisional Playoffs

10. 2007 NFC Divisional Playoffs: Giants 21, Cowboys 17

Under the command of head coach Wade Phillips, the NFC East champions had dusted Tom Coughlin’s team twice during the regular season, 45-35 at Dallas, and 31-20 at East Rutherford. Dallas owned a 13-3 record, and was the NFC’s top seed entering the playoffs, and took on a Giants’ club fresh off a 24-14 wild card win at Tampa.

The Giants struck first as Eli Manning and Amani Toomer combined for a 52-yard score in the first quarter. The clubs were tied at halftime, and the Cowboys took a 17-14 lead into the final quarter. Giants’ running back Brandon Jacobs put his team ahead in the fourth quarter, and teammate R.W. McQuarters picked off Tony Romo in the end zone in the closing seconds. The Giants would eventually go on to upset the Pats in Super Bowl XLII.

9. 1996 AFC Divisional Playoffs: Jaguars 30, Broncos 27

Mike Shanahan was in his second season as the Broncos’ sideline leader, and his team was formidable indeed. They and the Green Bay Packers tied for the best record in the league at 13-3, and Denver won the AFC Wet by four games. They hosted the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars, who were in only their second year of existence, but had surprised the Bills in the wild card round at Orchard Park the previous week.

Denver jumped out to a 12-0 first-quarter lead, but Tom Coughlin’s club with the next 23 points and owned an 11-point advantage in the fourth quarter. The Broncos narrowed the gap to three points later in the quarter, but Denver’s defense struggled all afternoon to slow down the Jacksonville offense—gaining 443 total yards. Jaguars’ running back Natrone Means ran for 140 yards and one touchdown, part of a ground game that finished the day with 203 yards.

8. 2003 NFC Divisional Playoffs: Panthers 29, Rams 23 (2 OT)

It was a season in which the Panthers would wind up in Super Bowl XXXVIII. First things first, and that was going to St. Louis and attempting to dethrone the reigning NFC champion Rams. Somewhat lost in this clash was the fact that the Carolina defense limited Mike Martz’s offensive unit to a single touchdown in five-plus quarters.

The underdog Panthers owned a 23-12 advantage midway through the fourth quarter, but the Rams managed to score the final 11 points in regulation as St. Louis kicker Jeff Wilkins nailed a 33-yard field goal as time expired. Carolina rolled up 485 total yards in the game, and the last 69 of those came in the second overtime as wide receiver Steve Smith and quarterback Jake Delhomme combined for the game-winning touchdown.

7. 2012 AFC Divisional Playoffs: Ravens 38, Broncos 35 (2 OT)

It was quarterback Peyton Manning’s first season with the Broncos, and while Denver was a division champion the previous year (albeit with an 8-8 record), he raised the team’s game and the club was tied for the league’s best record at 13-3. John Fox’s team sat and waited for its first playoff foe in 2012, and it turned out to be Joe Flacco and the Ravens, who stifled the Colts a week earlier in Baltimore.

Baltimore’s strong-armed signal-caller was in the midst of a four-game run that would result in a Super Bowl XLVII at New Orleans. First things first, and that’s stunning Denver with a 70-yard TD pass to speedster Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds to play. The teams would play a second overtime, and Justin Tucker’s 47-yard field goal won it for John Harbaugh’s club.

6. 1987 NFC Divisional Playoffs: Vikings 36, 49ers 24

It was an odd year in the National Football League due to an early season strike. The 28 teams in the league wound up playing only 15 regular-season games, three of those of the “replacement” variety as performers from all walks of life, including some that crossed the picket lines, suited up. Regardless, Bill Walsh’s San Francisco 49ers wound up with the NFL’s best record at 13-2.

They would take on a Minnesota Vikings’ club that grabbed a wild card berth with an 8-7 mark. The Purple Gang got contributions from everywhere, from five Chuck Nelson field goals, to a pair of Wade Wilson TD passes, to Reggie Rutland’s pick-six of Joe Montana. The standout was receiver Anthony Carter, who caught 10 passes for 227 yards, and had a 30-yard run that set up a touchdown.

5. 2019 AFC Divisional Playoffs: Titans 28, Ravens 12

The Tennessee Titans’ lone Super Bowl appearance came in 1999, when Jeff Fisher’s wild card club parlayed a “Music City Miracle” and road playoff wins over the Colts and Jaguars to face the Rams in Atlanta (XXXIV). A mere 20 years later, Mike Vrabel’s club got hot down the stretch, and this 9-7 club began its postseason quest by dethroning the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots at Foxborough in the wild card round.

Next up was a trip to Baltimore to face NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the top-seeded Ravens, who led the league with 531 points and owned an NFL-best 14-2 mark. John Harbaugh’s club set a new NFL single-season record for rushing yards by a team, but the Titans were led by a red-hot Derrick Henry, who ran for 195 yards and threw a TD pass in the upset.

4. 2005 AFC Divisional Playoffs: Steelers 21, Colts 18

Earlier in 2005 on a Monday night at Indianapolis, the Colts got off to a fast start. Peyton Manning found Marvin Harrison for an 80-yard touchdown the first time Tony Dungy’s club touched the ball and the Colts were on their way to a 26-7 win. In this rematch, the sixth-seeded Steelers took a 14-0 first-quarter lead over the team with the best record in the league (14-2).

Pittsburgh held a 21-3 fourth-quarter before the Colts scored two touchdowns, along with a two-point conversion, to cut the deficit to 21-18 with 4:24 left to play in the game. Just when it looked like Pittsburgh would salt the game away, Jerome Bettis fumbled on his way to the end zone. Colts’ kicker Mike Vanderjagt had a chance to send the game into overtime, but missed badly on a 46-yard field goal.

3. 2011 NFC Divisional Playoffs: Giants 37, Packers 20

Mike McCarthy’s 15-1 club was the reigning Super Bowl champion. Meanwhile, Tom Coughlin’s club survived a midseason four-game losing streak, and managed to win the NFC East with a 9-7 record and a negative point differential. However, these rejuvenated Giants, which had lost a heartbreaking 38-35 setback the Packers earlier in the year, was prepared to take advantage of a defense that still owns the NFL record for the most passing yards allowed in a season.

Eli Manning threw for 330 yards and three scores (1 interception), exactly half of that yardage (165) and two touchdowns to Hakeem Nicks, and Big Blue never trailed in the game. All told, New York sacked 2011 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers four times and the team came up a total of four takeaways.

2. 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs: Jets 28, Patriots 21

It was Rex Ryan’s finest moment as the team’s head coach (could he be making a return in 2025?). It also marks the last time the Jets won a playoff game. That didn’t seem very likely when they met the Patriots for the third time in 2010. That’s because six weeks earlier on a Monday night at Foxborough, the Green and White were left black and blue via a 45-3 loss.

Second-year Jets’ quarterback Mark Sanchez threw for 194 yards and three scores, and New York limited the highest-scoring team in the league that season (518 points) to only two touchdowns. Ryan’s defense sacked Tom Brady five times, and linebacker David Harris stole one of his passes. All told, Bill Belichick’s club lost only three out of 17 games in 2010, and two were to the Jets. A stunner at Gillette Stadium.

1. 1979 AFC Divisional Playoffs: Oilers 17, Chargers 14

Earlier in the season, Don Coryell’s powerhouse club had destroyed the reigning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, 35-7, forcing eight turnovers in an impressive victory over Chuck Noll’s squad The 12-4 Chargers owned homefield advantage in the AFC playoffs, and hosted an undermanned Houston Oilers’ team without standouts such as NFL rushing leader Earl Campbell, quarterback Dan Pastorini and wide receiver Kenny Burrough in the divisional round.

Quarterback Gifford Nielsen and wide receiver Mike Renfro combined for a 47-yard touchdown in the third quarter. The real star of this great gut-check victory was Oilers’ safety Vernon Perry. He picked off future Hall of fame quarterback Dan Fouts four times and blocked a field goal in this stunning upset.