The NFL is a league driven by parity. While people may beg to differ due to the Kansas City Chiefs winning the AFC five of the last six years, take a look at the margins of victory in recent Super Bowls. The last three, including one that did not even involve the Chiefs, have been decided by three points. The two before that were decided by multiple scores, so something have to give in all of this, right?
Unless you root for the Chiefs, the Philadelphia Eagles or one of their rivals, this year's Super Bowl does not really do much for the casual consumer. We saw this matchup two years ago in Greater Phoenix, one where the Chiefs won on a controversy penalty. Philadelphia might be able to put forth a competitive game, but Kansas City's greatest strength as a team is winning the tightest of ballgames.
For those who need a refresher, here is the margin of victory, or defeat, in the last five Super Bowls.
What is the margin of victory or defeat in the last five Super Bowls?
Year | Super Bowl | Winner | Loser | Final Score | Margin of Defeat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | LVIII | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | 25-22 (OT) | 3 |
2022 | LVII | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | 38-25 | 3 |
2021 | LVI | Los Angeles Rams | Cincinnati Bengals | 23-20 | 3 |
2019 | LIV | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | 31-20 | 11 |
2020 | LV | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Kansas City Chiefs | 31-9 | 22 |
The common thread in each of these games, even more so than the Chiefs, is the team that plays better in the trenches wins. It is accentuated by timely play from the quarterback, particularly on the short-to-medium games of his wide receiving corps. It is why the Chiefs, the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have all won a Super Bowl in the last five years. They were all quite clutch.
As for the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, at least you got to one...
If we want to kick it back to the last 10 Super Bowls, some losers kept it close, while others did not... The Seattle Seahawks, the Atlanta Falcons and the Patriots lost their Super Bowls by four, six and eight points to the Patriots, the Patriots and the Eagles, respectively. The Rams lost to the Patriots by 10 points in their Super Bowl, while the Carolina Panthers lost by 14 points to the Denver Broncos.
In the last 10 Super Bowls, we have seen six games decided by one possession, three that were decided by multiple scores and one true blowout. Kansas City enters Super Bowl 59 as a slight 1.5-point favorite over Philadelphia. Thus, we should anticipate another relatively close game. Philadelphia may have an edge in the trenches, but Kansas City has Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
Overall, whoever wins the Super Bowl is probably going to need to score at least 30 points to secure a victory. Half of the last 10 winners have eclipsed that margin. As far as defense is concerned, if you limit the opposition to under 25 points, you have a great shot of winning. We have seen low-scoring Super Bowls in recent years, but lets just say the Patriots beating the Rams 13-3 is quite an outlier.
The last five Super Bowls have been decided by an average of 8.5 points, so really one possession.