Sometimes disappointment is obvious, other times it comes as a surprise. In an NFL driven by parity, this is just how things go. Almost every year, somebody goes worst-to-first in their division. Every single season, we see between four and seven teams miss the playoffs after a postseason appearance the previous year.
Plenty of mitigating factors contribute to this. A bad team may have gotten a few lucky breaks the year prior. A star player may succumb to an insurmountable injury. Coaching and roster attrition can do a number on a team. Keep in mind that there are also teams on the come up that did not qualify for the postseason a year ago, but could now.
Today, I will rank all 14 teams that made the NFL playoffs a year ago on how likely I think they are to make it back. I will work my way down from the quintessential locks, to teams that are more likely to watch this season's playoffs unfold from the comfort of their couches. We'll read the tea leaves and go from there.
Let's start with a pair of teams whose fanbases have precisely zero reasons to ever complain one bit.
- NFL playoff teams that have enough fan equity to allow any 2025 result
- NFL playoff teams that are close to virtual locks for next year's postseason
- NFL playoff teams that need a deeper run than they had last season
- NFL playoff teams who are teetering on the edge of viability
- NFL teams that are right on the border of a playoff berth
- Teams that could fall victim to improved divisions
- NFL playoff teams who are more likely than not to miss the playoffs now
NFL playoff teams that have enough fan equity to allow any 2025 result
These two teams just played in the most recent Super Bowl and have won the last three combined.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
I do not know if the Philadelphia Eagles will repeat as Super Bowl champions, but really anything they do this year will be fine. They are essentially locks to make the playoffs this year out of the NFC. While it remains to be seen if they can hold off feisty competitors in their division like the Washington Commanders, maybe the Dallas Cowboys, anything short of a playoff berth will be seen as a failure.
13. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have been to the last three Super Bowls, and have won two of them. While the AFC Championship game has largely become the Arrowhead Invitational most years, the Chiefs have built up similar fan equity to where I think they could take a step back in a "down year" of sorts and just be fine. Like the Philadelphia Eagles, they might win it all, but they will make the playoffs.
NFL playoff teams that are close to virtual locks for next year's postseason
I would argue that these teams are virtually playoff locks as well, but they have something to prove.
12. Baltimore Ravens
We have to get Lamar Jackson to a Super Bowl before it is too late. The Baltimore Ravens are about as stable an NFL franchise as you will ever come across. While they could repeat in the AFC North, I could see them finishing in second or third place and still making the postseason. They are just that consistently solid of an operation. They are judged by playoff success, but need more of it.
11. Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders have so much positive momentum. They may be my way-too-early pick to win the NFC. Jayden Daniels was electrifying during his rookie season out of LSU. With the way he is playing under Kliff Kingsbury, as well as the partnership that exists at the top of the organization between Josh Harris, Adam Peters and Dan Quinn, now is the time to get on board here.
NFL playoff teams that need a deeper run than they had last season
I would be stunned if either team did not make the playoffs this season, but they have to go further.
10. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills need to stop wasting Josh Allen's prime. If this is as good as it gets for their current iteration of the franchise, then it might be time to move on from head coach Sean McDermott and maybe even general manager Brandon Beane. Between Buffalo and the Baltimore Ravens, whoever fails to win the AFC this year will have some explaining to do. I am a little bit more down on Buffalo.
9. Detroit Lions
Maybe the Detroit Lions missed their golden opportunity. Much of the roster is still intact, but Dan Campbell will be without his two star coordinators from a year ago. Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson have their own teams to run. Like Buffalo, I would be shocked if Detroit were not a playoff team. Then again, another postseason disappointment won't be a good look for the coach.
NFL playoff teams who are teetering on the edge of viability
These teams aren't in immediate danger of missing the playoffs, but if they don't grow from a year ago, they could fall off.
8. Houston Texans
This goal this year for the Houston Texans is for C.J. Stroud to take that next step into superstardom. Houston has the best roster in the weakest division in football. The Texans have to take advantage of it. This is their window of golden opportunity to get to their first AFC Championship game in franchise history. They cannot screw around to let rival teams like Indianapolis, Jacksonville or Tennessee catch them.
7. Green Bay Packers
The NFC North is one of the NFL's tougher divisions. I have a lot of respect for the Green Bay Packers, as they are a prominent reason why the NFC North can be so challenging. However, I am not looking forward to the team probably stalling out and stagnating under Matt LaFleur's watch in January again. The Packers are kind of like the lesser version of the Buffalo Bills. They have to win in the postseason!
NFL teams that are right on the border of a playoff berth
I could go either way on these teams making it back to the playoffs, but I do not see forward growth.
6. Denver Broncos
For Super Bowl 33 reasons, I hardly ever have anything nice to say about the Denver Broncos. That being said, they have a pretty good understanding of who they are right now. They have a strong offensive line, a competitive defense and a second-year quarterback in Bo Nix who has turned out to be quite the pro. But I do not know if the Broncos have a second or third gear in them yet.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
I am at a crossroads with this team. For as much as I think Jim Harbaugh can be a force for good in helping the Los Angeles Chargers get out of their own way, I also wonder when Justin Herbert will ever be the Adonis we thought he could be coming out of Oregon. He is a better version of Trevor Lawrence in a slightly more stable franchise. The team will only go as far as the dog inside of Herbert takes them.
Teams that could fall victim to improved divisions
I am leaning closer to believing these teams will not make the playoffs this season than the other way around.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The NFC South still may be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' division to lose, but I sense rival teams like the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers are closing in. Another year, another new offensive coordinator for Baker Mayfield to learn under. He will have a bigger say in the offense. While he has earned that, any time he is really feeling himself, he will overstate his athleticism.
3. Los Angeles Rams
This feels like the last year the Los Angeles Rams will be somewhat playoff-viable with their current core. Matthew Stafford is not getting any younger. Much of what made the 2021 team so special is gone. Los Angeles may have won the NFC West and played well down the stretch, but there are no easy outs in the division. I like the Arizona Cardinals' upside the most, but will they catch the Rams?
NFL playoff teams who are more likely than not to miss the playoffs now
If I had to pick two teams to miss the playoff after making this past season, this would be the pair.
2. Minnesota Vikings
I was so wrong on the Minnesota Vikings last year. Sam Darnold played out of his mind for Kevin O'Connell. I am willing to eat crow on that. However, they appear to be asking way too much out of first-year starter and second-year pro J.J. McCarthy. He could be fine, but the hype train surrounding the former Michigan star is getting out of control. The Vikings could potentially fall flat on their faces.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Can these Pittsburgh Steelers just go away, please? The Mike Tomlin of it all drives me insane. Adding Aaron Rodgers to the mix feels like adding gasoline to a blazing dumpster fire. The Steelers will be somewhere around .500, like they usually are under Tomlin. With Baltimore in control and the Cincinnati Bengals slated to turn it around, there are not enough playoffs berths to keep them in.