Since making his MLB debut on May 11, 2024, Paul Skenes has been arguably the best pitcher on the planet. His 2.00 ERA in 36 starts leads all qualified pitchers, and is nearly half a run lower than both reigning Cy Young winners, Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale. His 255 strikeouts tie him for the third most in the majors, only behind Skubal and Sale.
Not only is Skenes arguably the best pitcher in the world, but he also might just be the unluckiest. Despite posting a 2.05 ERA in 13 starts and 83.1 innings of work this season, he has a 4-6 record and the Pittsburgh Pirates have gone just 5-8 in his starts.
As unlucky as he appears on the surface, Jayson Stark of The Athletic ($) went into depth, highlighting just how unlucky Skenes has been ever since he appeared in a major league game. It's so insane, in fact, that we're going to have to rank the most ridiculous stats from his no-win starts.
5. ERA under 3.00? Skenes is still winless when allowing more than 1 run
This statistic is one I found when looking at Skenes' game log. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or more in five of his 13 starts. Yes, this means he's allowed one run or fewer in eight of his starts (61.5 percent), which is pretty remarkable. His record in those games is 0-5. That's right - if Skenes allows more than one earned run, the Pirates are toast.
To be fair, one of these starts wasn't great. Skenes allowed five runs in six innings of work in an April loss against the St. Louis Cardinals. The other four, though, have been good enough to win, and yet, the Pirates haven't found a way to close a single one of them.
In those four starts, Skenes has combined to allow nine earned runs in 23.1 innings of work. He's allowed two earned runs in three of those outings and three earned runs in the fourth. Not only did the Pirates lose all four of those games, but Skenes officially took the "loss" in three of them.
What makes matters worse is that, for the most part, these performances have come against good teams. The Miami Marlins are not a good team, but the Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs, and St. Louis Cubs are all at least five games above .500.
The moral of the story here is that Skenes has to be just about perfect for the Pirates to even have a chance to win his starts. It's unbelievable, and yet, there are more jarring stats to come.
4. Pirates are 2-5 in Skenes' last 7 starts despite 1.77 ERA
Skenes has always had rotten luck considering how great he is, but it feels as if his team's ineptitude has reached an all-time high lately.
"Over Skenes’ past seven starts, he has a 1.77 ERA, he’s averaging over six innings a start … and the Pirates are 2-5. Is that even possible?" Stark noted just how brilliant Skenes has been in his last seven starts. He's averaged 6.5 innings pitched in his seven starts since May 1, and has a 1.77 ERA. He's allowed one earned run or fewer in five of those seven starts, and yet, the Pirates are 2-5 when he's taken the ball.
Obviously, they've lost both of his starts in this stretch in which he's allowed more than one earned run, but they've lost three times in outings he's allowed one earned run, and were shut out in two of those games.
Normally, when an ace pitches into the seventh inning routinely while allowing one earned run, his team has no problem winning those games. They might lose once or twice, but they'd win a vast majority of them. Ultimately, these starters don't play for the 2025 Pirates.
3. Leads NL in bWAR, WHIP, innings but Pirates are just 5-8 in his starts
There are many statistics to use when judging how good a pitcher is. Skenes leads the National League in most of the ones people care about this season, and yet, has been struggling to lead his team to wins.
"Over Skenes’ 13 starts this season, he’s leading the National League in bWAR, WHIP, innings pitched, quality starts, opponent average and even (cough, cough) a new-age stat known as Win Probability Added," wrote Stark. "And the Pirates have still found a way to ignore that 'win probability' stuff and go 5-8 when he pitches."
Skenes has a 2.04 Win Probability Added (WPA) this season, good for fourth among all MLB pitchers and first in the National League. The three AL pitchers ahead of him, Garrett Crochet, Kris Bubic, and Nathan Eovaldi, have been unlucky themselves, going just 20-17 when they've taken the ball. Yet, they've combined to be three games over .500, while Skenes is three games under .500.
Skenes is going deep into games, limiting base runners, and has, according to the Win Probability Added stat, statistically given his team the best chance to win of anyone in the National League. Yet, the Pirates are three games under .500 in his starts.
2. 0-3 when going 8+ innings, despite 1.48 ERA
Starting pitchers might not get very deep in games anymore, and while Skenes has been able to complete six frames most times he takes the ball, he's only completed eight innings three times in his brief career. His record in those starts, you might ask? Well, I have a feeling you can guess.
"Skenes has made three career starts of eight innings or longer," wrote Stark. "His ERA in those starts is 1.48. His record in those starts is … what else? … 0-3."
Somehow, the Pirates haven't won a single start he's made in which he's completed eight innings. How? I have absolutely no idea. Skenes completed eight innings once last season, allowing two runs in 8.1 innings of work against the St. Louis Cardinals. Fittingly, the Pirates lost that game 2-1.
This season, Skenes hasn't even gotten a single run of support in games he's completed eight innings. He held one of the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series, the Philadelphia Phillies, to one run on three hits just a couple of weeks ago. The Pirates were unable to score a single run against Mick Abel, who was making his MLB debut, and lost the game 1-0. The most jarring fact to come from this game is that this was Skenes' first complete game. The Pirates didn't even get to pitch in a ninth inning because they were on the road and lost 1-0.
Skenes' second time finishing eight innings this season came in his last start against the Houston Astros. He held Houston to one run on three hits, striking out eight at home. Not only did the Pirates fail to score a single run, but Dennis Santana allowed two runs in the ninth, giving Pittsburgh little chance to complete a miraculous comeback in the bottom of the ninth.
The record of all other MLB starters over the past two seasons in starts of eight innings or longer, according to Stark, is 86-5!
For pitchers to get through eight innings nowadays, they have to be both economical and dominant. Doing both is not easy, and yet, Skenes has done so twice in his last four starts. Somehow, his team has managed to lose in both of those outings despite the near-perfect record other pitchers have when finishing eight frames. It's impossible to comprehend.
1) Skenes has a 2.59 ERA in 21 no-win starts
It would've been one thing for Skenes to pitch extremely well in games the Pirates win and see his production fall off a cliff in games they lose. That's not what's happening, though. He's been historically dominant in games he doesn't even get a win in.
"In his two seasons in the big leagues, Skenes is now up to 21 career starts in which he hasn’t gotten a win," Stark found. "Somehow, it doesn’t feel like that’s his fault. His numbers, just in those non-wins: a 2.59 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings."
Skenes has won 15 games in his career, and has an absurd 1.19 ERA in those outings while averaging a shade over six innings of work. Again, he has to be just about spotless for his team to have a chance. His numbers in no-win starts might not be that great, but they're extraordinary.
Skenes has a 2.59 ERA in non-win starts. For reference, only three pitchers, Sale, Skubal and Zack Wheeler, finished last season with ERAs lower than that among qualified pitchers. Nobody had a WHIP lower than 0.84. Only 12 pitchers had a higher K/9. Skenes has been among the best pitchers in the majors solely in games he didn't get a win in.
And according to Stark, the complete list of everyone throughout history with that many starts (or more) whose career ERA is that spectacular in their non-wins? Paul Skenes: 2.59.
At the risk of repeating myself, Skenes has been literally as good as it gets in games he doesn't earn a win in. Nobody since earned runs became an official stat in 1913 can match Skenes' 2.59 ERA in games he doesn't earn a win in. Just let that sink in.