Ravens playoff scenarios: How Christmas Day game affects chase for AFC North title

Just three weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens appeared unlikely to repeat as AFC North division champions. Baltimore entered their Week 14 bye with two losses in their past three games, including a gut-wrenching loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11.

Although their 8-5 record still put them in position for a playoff berth, they would likely be stuck to a Wild Card spot. The Ravens had fallen two wins behind the Steelers, who improved to a 10-3 record and held the head-to-head tiebreaker over Baltimore. 

Since then, things have changed in a hurry. Baltimore stormed out of their bye week with two dominant wins, including a 34-17 thrashing against Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Steelers have now lost two consecutive games. 

Ravens will need some help from rivals to win AFC North title

Baltimore is currently amid a grueling stretch of three games over 11 days, which concludes against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on Christmas Day. If the Ravens can pull out a win in that contest, they could very well find themselves atop the division standings.

The Steelers still control their own fate this season. Although both teams are currently tied with 10-5 records, Pittsburgh owns the divisional tiebreaker over Baltimore based on winning percentage against common opponents. Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule is far more difficult than Baltimore’s schedule, however. The Ravens could find themselves in the lead for the division with a win over Houston if the Steelers lose to the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day.

Week 18 is more crucial than Christmas Day for Baltimore. If the Ravens lose on Christmas, they could still win the division in Week 18 even if Pittsburgh defeats the Chiefs. In that scenario, the Ravens would have to defeat the Cleveland Browns in Week 18 and they would need the Steelers to lose to the Cincinnati Bengals. If that happened, Baltimore would win the tiebreaker based on divisional record.

If the Ravens win on Christmas but lose to the Browns, they would need Pittsburgh to lose both of their remaining two games. 

Still, Pittsburgh will have a tougher time getting past Kansas City, but Baltimore would be better off avoiding tiebreakers, if possible — the Steelers would win most of them. The Ravens and Steelers split their head-to-head divisional matchups, and they’re also tied with a 3-2 record against divisional opponents. If both teams with their remaining two games, the Steelers would win the division based on the third tiebreaker: winning percentage against common opponents.

The Steelers would have a 9-3 record against common opponents, with losses to Dallas, Cleveland and Philadelphia. Baltimore would have an 8-4 record against common opponents, with losses to Las Vegas, Cleveland, Philadelphia and Kansas City.