Craig Breslow's first big decision of Red Sox offseason turned out to be a masterstroke

Whenever Craig Breslow extended the qualifying offer to longtime middling Boston Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta in early November, fans were on the verge of outrage. And to be sure, it seemed like a massive gamble.

With the qualifying offer, should Pivetta have accepted it, paying a pitcher with a 4.14 ERA last season and no ERA below 4.00 in his four full seasons with Boston $21.05 million seemed less than ideal. The common refrain among fans was "He's for sure taking that!" Had that been the case, it would've been a massive misread of the pitching market in free agency by Breslow that would limit the team's resources at the worst possible time with John Henry and Sam Kennedy prepared to spend.

But Breslow didn't misread the market. In fact, he read it to perfection.

As Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported on Tuesday, Pivetta declined the qualifying offer from the Red Sox and will test free agency. Because the Sox were under the first competitive balance tax in the 2024 season with their payroll, Boston will receive a compensatory draft pick if Pivetta signs elsewhere. That's good in itself but even better for the organization's options this offseason.

Nick Pivetta turning down qualifying offer opens doors for Red Sox

Just looking at the potential compensation draft pick, which will be before the third round of the draft, that could be big for the Red Sox. After all, the comp pick that the franchise received for Xander Bogaerts after he declined the qualifying offer turned into Kristian Campbell, now the No. 10 overall prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline.

But regardless of Breslow and Boston potentially striking gold again in the draft, it also makes their options in this year's free agency class that much easier to swallow.

While Red Sox fans would gleefully give up a draft pick to see the club be aggressive in free agency, that is the reality of what Boston would have to do to sign some of the organization's rumored top targets. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez and Max Fried all have the qualifying offer attached, meaning that signing them would constitute Boston forfeiting their second draft pick. If there's a pick coming back already in relation to Pivetta, though, that becomes less of a hindrance.

More than just the nuts and bolts of the qualifying offer and how Pivetta's decision can benefit the Red Sox's plight, though, it's also just a tremendously positive sign for Breslow. There is still plenty more goodwill to still be earned by the top decision-maker in the organization but he was brought into the fold to replace Chaim Bloom for moments like this. His feel for the market has long been considered elite. And his work with the QO and Pivetta proved that.

With such a good feel and finger on the pulse of this free agent market, it's hard not to get more optimistic about a by-all-accounts substantially more aggressive Red Sox offseason. It's still a bit of a longshot to think that Soto will be the top prize. However, there are far more stars than just Soto available, stars who could take Boston from being a fun, pesky team that flamed out and missed the playoffs to bonafide contenders, especially with the Big 4 still looming large in Triple-A.