The MLB rumor mill is still going strong with only a few days until spring training games begin. Although the most prominent free agents are off the board, the trade market is alive and well. At the forefront of trade talks are the San Diego Padres, which are open to a blockbuster deal. Red Sox President Sam Kennedy has openly acknowledged that the job isn't finished after signing Alex Bregman, and striking a deal with the Friars may be enough to put the Boston Red Sox on top of the AL East.
Red Sox fans rightfully should be hopeful of Dylan Cease, even if the asking price is astronomical. The Red Sox have a deep farm system, including three of the top 12 prospects in baseball. Trading from the top-3 core may be inadvisable, however, and all three, Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer, have the type of upside that makes you confident they will be strong MLB players before long.
Two bits on Cease. One: It's been widely regarded that the Padres will have Cease stay put at this juncture. They, too, are looking to compete this season. Shedding payroll isn't always a white flag the way it can sometimes be perceived. The team appears more open to moving closer to Robert Suarez, as they have in-house options, such as Jason Adam, to slide into a ninth-inning role and use Jeremiah Estrada as a setup man.
Second, the Red Sox have the farm to pull off a deal like this, but just because you can doesn't mean you should let yourself get robbed. The way the free agent market has churned out record-breaking contracts in the past, it's unlikely Cease will sign a mid-season extension. If you don't make a deep playoff run in 2025, you're kicking yourself by potentially losing both Cease and a top prospect. After 2025, if you can't re-sign him, your departed top prospects' value is sky-high compared to the compensation pick you get when Cease declines a qualifying offer.
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Is a Dylan Cease trade worth it for the Boston Red Sox right now?
Yes and no. If you can build a package that doesn't include one of your top three, which feels unlikely, then absolutely. However, if the asking price starts with Anthony or Campbell, I'm waiting until the trade deadline to look elsewhere. Those two players have the potential to be elite-level players in the league and should be completely off-limits in trade talks.
You can make sense of moving Marcelo Mayer, given that if Bregman slides over to second base, you're likely covered there for the foreseeable future, assuming he doesn't opt out of $40 million annually. Rafael Devers is at third base for now, and Trevor Story at shortstop still has three years, as it's unlikely he will opt out after this season.
Campbell is already blocked in the infield, and Anthony is ahead of him in the outfield. Either will have to play a corner outfield spot to receive everyday playing time. Jarren Duran showcased elite center field defense. Wilyer Abreu is in RF, so there's already a bit of a logjam. That hypothetically makes Mayer expendable. Still, it feels like a lot to give up for one year of any player, given Mayer's upside.
After adding Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler to pair with Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, I may wait to use some of my prospect capital at the MLB trade deadline. After Bregman, the Red Sox are already good enough to be buyers, where they will have deep pockets and a deeper surplus of prospect capital than other teams in their division to make multiple splashes for around what it might cost for just Cease, given the Padres' asking price. Holding off for now may be the best bet for the team's future.