The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. saga has quieted down for the time being, as the first baseman has reported to Toronto Blue Jays camp and seems (publicly, at least) committed to putting up the best 2025 season he can. But make no mistake: The minute things go south for the Jays during the regular season, the writing will be on the wall, and the vultures will start circling ahead of Guerrero Jr.'s potentially record-breaking free agency next winter.
Entering his age-26 season and coming off a massive 2024 campaign in which he slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers, Vladdy figures to have no shortage of suitors if he does indeed hit the market in a few months' time. The New York Yankees and New York Mets could have glaring holes at first base, for starters, and that's not even mentioning other big-market teams like the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies. (Oh, and the Los Angeles Dodgers, who at this point should be mentioned in every one of these conversations just by default.)
But no vulture should be circling harder than the Boston Red Sox. Sure, Triston Casas looks like a budding star at first base, but you can never have too much talent, especially when that talent is a generational right-handed slugger who seems like a perfect fit for Fenway Park. And as if all that weren't compelling enough, there's ample reason to believe that Guerrero Jr. has had his sights set on coming to Boston for years now.
A perfect fit and bankable personality, still just entering his prime, who's already interested in what your team has to offer? This is the chance that the Red Sox have been waiting for, the opportunity to permanently alter the balance of power in the AL East. There's just one problem: They're going to have to exorcise years worth of penny-pinching demons to get it done.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. free agency gives Red Sox golden chance to finally leave the Chaim Bloom era behind
As much as Guerrero Jr. might love the idea of playing for the Red Sox, he's already made very clear that no amount of sentimentality will earn a team a discount when it comes to his free agency. He wants to get paid, and he wants to get paid a lot: not quite $600 million, but also not too far off.
Of course, it's not that hard to make the case that Vladdy will be worth that much to whichever team signs him, both because of the years of elite production still ahead of him and because of the juice that his presence will bring to a fan base. But that's still rarefied air for just about every team in the league, particularly Boston, which has become notorious for its aversion to the big free-agent splash in recent years.
That aversion came to a head with the Mookie Betts trade a few years ago, and while Craig Breslow has built Boston into a budding power after taking over for Chaim Bloom, it still remains to be seen just how much stomach he and ownership have for a deal like this. The Red Sox have expended a lot of energy trying to convince fans that this time really is different, that they're willing to do whatever it takes. But so far, that's amounted to a trade for Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet and a short-term deal for Alex Bregman — very good players, but not exactly massive outlays of cash.
This is the sort of opportunity that doesn't come around all that often; players as talented as Vladdy hardly ever hit the market as young as Vladdy will be. The fact that he apparently already wants to be in Boston makes this a moment that the Red Sox can't afford to miss. But we've said that about this team before.