A seventh seed has only beaten a second seed six times in NBA history. Unless Peak Hakeem Olajuwon and James Harden walk through the door, the Houston Rockets will be the seventh No. 2 seed to drop the 2-7 matchup.
Losing to the Golden State Warriors isn't surprising. Houston is composed of young talent who are getting a taste of playoff basketball.
Houston has an intriguing young core, but 31-year-old Fred VanVleet is certainly not young. Still. VanVleet, who signed last offseason, has been crucial in Houston's turnaround.
He's been the steady force and prying defender Ime Udoka and his staff need him to be. Though he's steered the ship the last two years, the Rockets have decisions to make this summer.
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Losing Fred VanVleet this summer could be a mistake, but the young players will get reps
VanVleet signed a three-year, $128 million contract with Houston in 2024. The third year was a team option worth $44 million. That's pricey for an aging small guard, but I don't believe the alternatives are ready yet.
Houston will likely let VanVleet walk. He's done his duty to establish the workhorse culture. VanFleet's leadership and championship experience are lessons the young players will carry with them until they accomplish that same goal. VanFleet is a ruthless on-ball defender and a plus passer/floor general. He has a strong handle and has always ranked low in turnover percentage (8.8 this year). He is a streaky scorer who heaves shots when nothing is flowing.
That can be a benefit since VanVleet is willing to take those grenade shots when the offense is stale, but it tanks his percentages, and overall, he's not a lethal scorer (not what they signed him for).
With his contract on a team option, the Rockets could decline it. They could let VanVleet walk or resign him to a smaller deal. It seems as if they would let him walk to allow the young guys to stretch their wings. They aren't ready.
Amen Thompson is one of the intriguing young Rockets. He's currently a do-it-all wing who will make First-Team All-Defense this year. Offensively, he's still raw and operates best from the dunker spot and downhill.
When you watch Thompson, you can clearly see his creation chops. He makes point guard reads and can direct traffic when he's in it. But right now, I don't believe Thompson can be a full-time point guard on a good team. He's turnover-prone and doesn't have VanVleets' handle or shooting respect. Teams will clog the lane, disrespecting his jumper if he doesn't develop a shot.
Running a successful offense is difficult when teams sag off your primary decision-maker. While Thompson can make reads, he's still at his best cutting off the ball and dominating teams from the paint; moving him to point guard full-time limits those opportunities to some extent.
Thompson could still play off Alperen Şengün as a point guard, but the spacing would still be iffy with two non-shooters running the offense. Here's where another young Rocket could swing things if VanVleet is indeed no longer a Houston Rocket come summertime.
Reed Sheppard will be able to show if the Kentucky hype was warranted. His role in his rookie season was minimal, with VanVleet, Jalen Green, and other older guards taking the guard possessions. Houston is a squad that desperately needs shooting if Thompson and Şengün are the main ball handlers.
That's Sheppard's calling card. His shooting splits were 54/52/83 in college, and in limited league minutes, he shot 41 percent on 12 3-point attempts. Sheppard was the third overall pick for a reason in the 2024 draft, and VanVleet's potential walking allows him to let it fly.
The benefit of not having VanVleet in Houston is that there are more reps for Thompson and Sheppard. The cons are Houston will be left without a "true" point guard. I believe Amen Thompson can grow into that role eventually, but with a more trustworthy shot or handle. Improvement in either of those skills, paired with his video game athleticism and knack for making the right play, makes him a viable floor general in the future.
The Rockets management should accept the last year of VanVleet's player option and allow the attributes of Thomposns' game to grow if they want to stay in the 2-seed range.
Reps are the best, and the Rockets are way ahead of schedule, but allowing Thompson to be the full-time point guard will come with a learning curve and potentially more Ls. I'd keep VanVleet personally, but allowing Thompson and Sheppard to grow with more playing time and responsibility could pay off in the long term.