Roki Sasaki Rumors: Dodgers-Padres arms race, L.A. optimism, Toronto's fatal flaw

We're officially on Roki Sasaki Watch: The 2025 international amateur free agent window has opened, and the 23-year-old righty is free to sign with whichever Major League team he chooses. Will it be the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres or Toronto Blue Jays? We still don't know, but a run through the latest rumors could help us make sense of where the Japanese phenom is most likely to wind up when all is said and done.

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Roki Sasaki Rumors: Dodgers, Padres both clearing room

When Sasaki opted to make the jump to the States now, rather than waiting a couple more years, he knew that doing so would potentially leave hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — rather than the sort of megadeal that, say, Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed last winter, Sasaki can only be signed to a Minor League contract with a signing bonus around $10 million or so. He went ahead and did it anyway, eager to get his big-league career started as soon as possible.

But just because the righty values other things more than money doesn't mean that he's not trying to get some kind of payday. Sasaki wants to make as much as he can under the league's international amateur free agent rules, and that's left the finalists for his services scrambling to get their hands on as much cash as they can.

For the uninitiated, teams are allotted anywhere from $4.75 million to $5.75 million in bonus money for each international signing period. But they can trade for as much as 60 percent above that number — and as they look for any potential edge in the Sasaki sweepstakes, the Dodgers and Padres are doing just that.

Both L.A. and San Diego are willing to sacrifice their entire international amateur free agent class, forgoing prior commitments and dedicating 100 percent of their pool money to Sasaki. Which will be more than worth it for the team that lands him; 23-year-old frontline starters don't come available for pennies on the dollar very often. For the team that doesn't, though, it'll add insult to injury.

Roki Sasaki Rumors: Dodgers remain 'optimistic' after second meeting

San Diego and L.A. were the final two teams to host Sasaki, who made a Southern California swing over the last few days and got to meet star players from both sides. Now that the dust has settled, all that's left for the pitcher to do is sit back, weigh all the information he's gathered over the last month-plus and make a decision.

The Dodgers are confident that said decision will break their way. According to Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times, the team has "been optimistic about their chances" to land Sasaki, a sign that they feel as though their star-studded final pitch was well-received. And really, why wouldn't it be? While Sasaki didn't allow for current players to be present in the initial in-person meetings, the Dodgers finally got their chance to fully roll out the red carpet. While we can't say for sure whether Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts or any of the team's many other stars were in attendance, L.A.'s most effective pitch is simply showing Sasaki how deep their roster is.

Roki Sasaki Rumors: Fatal flaw in Blue Jays' pitch

The longer this free agency drags on, the more it seems like the Blue Jays really are under consideration to land the right-hander. Sasaki wouldn't have taken a multi-day trip up to Canada just for fun, and Toronto does have several things going for it, from a cosmopolitan city (with a bit less harsh of a media spotlight) to an entire country's worth of endorsement opportunities to some meaningful personal connections.

There's one area, however, where the Jays' pitch to Sasaki breaks down a bit. By all accounts, the righty is (understandably) concerned with finding an organization that can help him develop as a pitcher; he's still just 23, after all. And one look at Toronto's track record should make painfully clear that Mark Shapiro's organization ain't it. From Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith:

"Other selling points likely included: an initial video presentation; an in-person demonstration of the team’s newly renovated clubhouse, training and recovery facilities in Toronto; emphasis on the Blue Jays’ ability to develop pitchers like Robbie Ray, Steven Matz and Yusei Kikuchi at the MLB level; recruiting pitches from current Blue Jays staff and players and more."

All due respect to the Blue Jays, but that probably isn't the flex that the team thinks it is. Ray admittedly enjoyed the best season of his big-league career in Toronto, winning AL Cy Young honors in 2021. But the lefty's talent was never in question, while both Kikuchi and Matz went on to be as good or better elsewhere than they were with the Jays. And beyond that, the team's track record of homegrown pitching talent is pretty bleak — as is the roster overall, especially if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are both on their way out the door.