Roki Sasaki rumors: Scouting report, posting status and everything to know as he enters free agency

The 2024 MLB free agent class just got a whole lot more intriguing. On early Saturday morning, the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they'd agreed to post star right-handed pitcher Roki Sasaki, clearing the way for the 23-year-old phenom to come to the Majors for the 2025 season. (For the uninitiated, the posting system is the process by which Japanese players become available to be signed by all 30 MLB teams. More on this shortly.)

This development comes as a bit of a surprise. Sasaki is the Marines' best player, and they're technically under no obligation to make him available to be posted. Plus, Sasaki's age means that he'll be considered an international amateur free agent, which puts a significant cap on what MLB teams can pay him — and the size of the Marines' 20-percent posting fee. But Sasaki had made clear for years now that his heart was set on coming to America, and eventually Chiba Lotte decided that the PR hit of alienating one of Japan's brightest stars wasn't worth the benefit of keeping him around.

"I am very grateful to the team for officially allowing me to post," Sasaki said in a statementposted by the Marines on X. "I will do my best to work my way up from my minor contract to become the best player in the world, so that I will have no regrets in my one and only baseball career and live up to the expectations of everyone who has supported me."

While we know that Sasaki is officially headed to the States at some point in the near future, there's so much that's still up in the air about this situation. Here's everything you need to know, from how the posting system works to what makes Sasaki so sought-after to which teams stand the best chance of landing him.

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How does Japan's posting system to MLB work?

You'll see the word "posting" floating around a lot, but what does it actually mean? Basically, it means "made available to MLB teams — for a price". When a player is posted, that player has a 45-day window to sign with any Major League team he chooses. If he reaches agreement on a contract, a percentage of the total value of that contract is paid to the player's team in Japan. If he doesn't reach agreement on a contract, he reverts back to NPB for at least one more season.

As for what that contract will look like, though, that's where things get complicated.

What kind of contract can Roki Sasaki sign in MLB?

You might remember the $325 million megadeal that fellow Japanese import (and former teammate of Sasaki's on Team Japan's World Baseball Classic-winning squad in 2023) Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed last winter and assume that Sasaki is in for a similar payday. But that's what makes his decision to come Stateside right now so puzzling: Sasaki is leaving nine figures on the table, thanks to a quirk in the posting system.

Players who are at least 25 years old with six more or seasons in a foreign league are considered Major League free agents, eligible to sign Major League contracts — meaning that there's no limit to what teams can offer them. But since Sasaki is just 23, he's considered an international amateur free agent for MLB purposes. That means teams can only sign him using the international bonus pool money, severely limiting the value of Sasaki's first contract: The smallest-market teams are given the most bonus money to work with, but even they have just over $7.1 million to spend, while larger-market teams (like potential Sasaki suitors such as the Yankees and Padres) have just $4.6 million at their disposal. Teams are allowed to add to their totals by trading for other teams' pool money, but not by a whole lot.

So while Yamamoto got the bag, Sasaki will get paid like any other Minor Leaguer, at least for his first few years in the Majors.

What were Roki Sasaki's stats in Japan?

Sasaki has been ticketed for stardom since before he was even a professional. He set a Japanese record by throwing a 101-mph fastball while still in high school — a record previously held by Shohei Ohtani — and was taken No. 1 overall in the 2019 NPB Draft.

From the moment he made his pro debut as a 19-year-old back in 2021, Sasaki has been one of the best young pitchers not just in Japan but in the world. He's posted a 2.02 ERA with 524 batters across 414.2 innings with the Marines, including a perfect game back in 2022 in which he tied the NPB record for strikeouts in a game (19) and set a new record for consecutive Ks in a game (13). He followed that start up with eight more perfect innings before being pulled over workload concerns.

How will Roki Sasaki translate to MLB?

In a word, yes.

That fastball is the headliner, consistently running into the triple-digits, but Sasaki pairs it with a wipeout splitter and a slider to boot. He also boasts impressive command, never posting a BB/9 rate higher than 2.6. If you had any doubts about whether Sasaki's stuff would translate to the Major League level, he put them to rest at last year's World Baseball Classic, striking out 11 in 7.2 innings of work — while averaging 100.5 with his heater in a semifinal start against a star-studded Mexico squad.

Sasaki may not have as deep an arsenal as, say, Yamamoto, or Ohtani, or Yu Darvish, but the stuff absolutely profiles as a frontline starter at the Major League level.

Which teams are considered the favorites for Roki Sasaki?

Because of his age and the limitations on his contract, all 30 teams will be interested in Sasaki's services. It's easy to assume that the Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear favorites here, given their World Series win and the fact that they can offer Sasaki the chance to play with fellow countrymen Ohtani and Yamamoto. But while L.A. is certainly a contender, these sweepstakes are far from over. Sasaki is reportedly close with Darvish, an argument in favor of the San Diego Padres. The New York Yankees and New York Mets have both scouted Sasaki closely over the last couple of years and figure to be intensely interested. And the Chicago Cubs just offered proof of concept by helping Shota Imanaga make an immediately successful transition to the States this season.

The bottom line is that we don't really know what motivates Sasaki, and what he'll be looking for as he weighs the flurry of offers set to come his way. All we do know is that whichever team does wind up securing the righty's services is getting a true game-changer.