Ross Atkins decision with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be his worst call yet

The Toronto Blue Jays whiffed on Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Max Fried early this winter. They're in the running for Corbin Burnes, but could very well lose out on his services thanks to the San Francisco Giants.

Current Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is entering the final year of his own contract. There were rumblings – mostly disproven since – that the Jays offered Vladdy a $340 million extension prior to seeing Soto sign his own $765 million deal. Guerrero Jr. would've been well within his right to turn Toronto down, as one more season to Vladdy's standard could lead to a contract offer north of $500 million-plus.

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Blue Jays, Ross Atkins take a surprising approach to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. negotiations

ESPN's Jeff Passan painted a tough picture for the Blue Jays. As much as they may not want to send Guerrero Jr. elsewhere, he has every motive to reach free agency if he's hitting like he did in 2024.

"The Blue Jays entered this winter intending to spend, and while they won't spread out the $700 million they were willing to give Soto on a group of lesser players, moving Guerrero is a last resort. If Toronto struggles and doesn't foresee re-signing Guerrero, he'll become the prize of the July deadline," Passan wrote in his latest notebook.

Just last season, Guerrero Jr. had a 6.4 WAR – the second-highest of his career – paired with a .940 OPS and 30 home runs. Those are just the baseline numbers for Guerrero Jr., who is open for a position change to first base if the Blue Jays are able to build around him this winter.

Of course, that is the big question. If Toronto and Atkins want to incentivize Guerrero Jr. to sign an extension early – likely taking less money long-term in the process – they must prove to him that they can build a sustained winner. The Jays missed the playoffs last season after the bottom fell out. They have yet to sign a headliner this winter – though the Yimi Garcia and Andres Gimenez moves were a good start.

Signing a player like Burnes or Alex Bregman doesn't just improve the Jays chances in 2025, but also beyond, and could be the deciding factor in Guerrero Jr.'s future as well.