There might not be many souls outside of Toronto (save for Hector Gomez) who have believed with any kind of conviction that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is staying with the Blue Jays long term. Toronto has become an offseason punching bag of failed free agent pursuits and, with Guerrero entering his final year of club control, the writing has been on the wall for anyone who's cared to read it: He's leaving in free agency this offseason — if not sooner.
Yet, Ross Atkins and the Blue Jays, at least outwardly, have maintained, perhaps stubbornly, that they'll continue trying to retain Vladdy and lock him into a long-term extension. Though Atkins has taken many deserved shots in recent years, you can't blame him for that. This is a generational talent still well younger than 30 years old that can and is a cornerstone piece. If there's even an inkling of a chance that he stays, the Jays have to try.
Unfortunately, Monday is the reported deadline for Toronto and Guerrero to get a long-term extension banged out and there is no deal yet agreed to. And if that deal doesn't materialize, then the best course of action then becomes trading Vladdy before Atkins risks losing him for nothing next winter.
And a poll of MLB executives seems to already see that coming to fruition as well.
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MLB execs already expecting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to be traded by Blue Jays
Jayson Stark and The Athletic ($) recently conducted a poll of 32 MLB executives about the players who are most likely to be traded during spring training. While Guerrero wasn't the leader (that would be San Diego Padres pitcher Dylan Cease), he did come in with two votes that he could be dealt before the end of spring training.
Two executives, admittedly, isn't a ton. At the same time, this poll was conducted well before we got closer to the imposed deadline for Guerrero and the Blue Jays to iron out an extension when there was still a modicum of a chance that a new deal could get done. Even with that possibility looming, two execs still predicted that Vladdy will be moved.
Again, the writing has been on the wall that we might be heading toward this decision and potential outcome.
For Atkins, though, if a deal doesn't get done, then waving the white flag isn't the admirable thing to do — it's the absolute right thing to do for the Blue Jays. Sure, Toronto signed Anthony Santander and Jeff Hoffman this offseason. But does that matter at all going into the 2026 season if they're trying to convince Guerrero to stay? We've seen this organization whiff on big-money pursuits time and again, even before Juan Soto and many others this offseason. There's no evidence that Vladdy wouldn't be more of the same.
Thus, the simplest solution is, as these executives are predicting, to trade him. Even as a one-year rental, the talent of Guerrero at the plate combined with getting an advanced opportunity to make your franchise more attractive before he hits free agency is enticing. That could land Toronto quite a haul much in the way the Padres got from the Yankees for Soto last offseason. And that haul could then allow the Blue Jays to turn the page from Guerrero and fellow pending free agent, Bo Bichette.
We'll see where we end up with Guerrero and the Blue Jays but, at this point, Atkins might want to at least know where he left the white flag just in case he does indeed need to make the smart move and wave it.