I must give ESPN's Bill Barnwell credit for how succinctly he described Sam Darnold's contract situation. He has the Minnesota Vikings starting quarterback as a Tier 3 capable starter heading into free agency. While Darnold made a Pro Bowl a season ago, it was the first time he ever did that in his career. The 2024 NFL season was set up for Darnold in a way he probably never experienced before.
If Darnold were to be slapped with the franchise tag in NFL free agency, he would command $42.4 million in salary for the upcoming campaign. Since the whole point of signing Darnold ahead of last year was to get great economic value before handing the reins over to J.J. McCarthy, what would be the point of bringing him back? McCarthy is raw, but Darnold returning would be an awful look for him.
Because there are a handful of other teams in dire need for a starting quarterback, Darnold is almost certainly gone. The teams who would probably have the most interest in him are the Las Vegas Raiders, the Pittsburgh Steelers and maybe even the New York Giants, if they got over the fact he is a former first-round pick by the New York Jets. Minnesota needs to go all-in on McCarthy this season.
Otherwise, they will be wasting another year of having their first-round pick on a team-friendly deal.
Sam Darnold has undeniably priced his way off the Minnesota Vikings
While I am very down on McCarthy as a future NFL franchise quarterback, I am well aware that the Vikings needs to find out if he is the guy or not sooner rather than later. Minnesota has to accept the fact that Darnold could find success somewhere else. He was always going to be the stop gap for the Vikings. If McCarthy does not pan out, then the Vikings can try again in an NFL Draft down the line.
With Barnwell hinting that Darnold's new contract could be even more than the projected franchise tag amount of $42.4 million, why would the Vikings want to get into a bidding war for a player who is slated to make upwards of $46 million annually? Yes, they could tag him and then trade him elsewhere, but there is a chance they could be on the hook financially for a player they did not want.
The best thing that can happen for the Vikings is to let Darnold walk and use the financial capital that they would have had to pay him on pieces to help get the most out of McCarthy while he is still cheap. McCarthy is immensely talented, but is still incredibly raw. He missed all of his rookie season out of Michigan after suffering a meniscus injury during the preseason. The clock is ticking on his contract.
Because McCarthy is a first-round pick, he will be under contract with the Vikings through the 2027 NFL season at minimum. If they extended him the fifth-year option, that could be until 2028. At that point, McCarthy will have either proven enough, or nowhere near enough, for the decision on a long-term contract extension to be obvious. Retaining Darnold for one more year will keep things murky.
As expected, Darnold outplayed his useful life with the Vikings, so now he must sign elsewhere.