It might seem early, but it is never too early to discuss fantasy football. Draft strategies are a 365-day process. We learn more about where players land on the depth chart and who might be a star losing it's shine. While we will get more information as we get closer to the season, but we've seen the lessons learned from previous years that can be attributed to this season.
When looking at ESPN's top PPR rankings prior to the season, at least nine of those players were a complete disaster for their teams. From the first-overall player (Christian McCaffrey) to the 25th (Rachaad White), it's very hard for a team to recover from a failed first or second-round pick without waiver wire prowess.
This year, there are a few poison pills that could tank your fantasy season. We've seen this formula in the past, but sometimes it can be hard to avoid the temptation. Still, the top player in the draft is once againa massive risk.
1. Saquon Barkley
Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley had one of the best fantasy seasons of all time last year. Anyone could see it coming. Barkley, one of the best talents at the position in a long time, joined a team with a fantastic offensive line and insane receivers. They also have the Tush Push, which did not get banned this season. All of that is returning this season, along with the swagger of a Super Bowl championship.
However, Barkley is also coming off a season where he touched the ball almost 500 times between the regular season and the playoffs. He led the league in rushing attempts. While he did avoid big contact more often than not, and he had his fair share of big runs, we've seen this story way too often. Honestly, we have seen it with Barkley himself.
Barkley has been banged up in the past. He's missed games, and he's played hurt. He's still good when he's playing hurt, but he couldn't come close to what he was last season. There is also almost no chance that he hits the insane level of production he had last season. Nobody repeats a 2,000-yard season. The last two to do it, Adrian Peterson and Derrick Henry, both got hurt the next season. Even if Barkley comes out of this season unscathed, his numbers will drop.
2. Tee Higgins
Cincinnati Bengals
One of the surprises of the offseason was when the Cincinnati Bengals came up with contracts for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at the same time. They paid both their wide receivers big money, keeping huge targets for Joe Burrow in house. Higgins was expected to become the number one for another team, but now he’s happy to be the number two behind Chase.
Higgins is currently ranked 11th among wide receivers, ahead of Tyreek Hill, Ladd McConkey, DJ Moore, and Garrett Wilson. Higgins is really good, but this assumes that the Bengals once again play a style that asks Burrow to throw them back into games. While the Bengals’ defense is still not good, last year was on another level. For Higgins, he has to do even better somehow.
We’re talking about a player who didn’t get to 1,000 yards despite perfect circumstances for a number two. It’s just hard to assume Burrow will throw for as many yards as he did again. Plus, Chase will get a large share of the dividends. Higgins will get what’s left, and it’s hard to think that would be in the top 12 of all fantasy receivers.
3. Ashton Jeanty
Las Vegas Raiders
Rookies are so hard to trust in this game, but we do it every year. That’s because every year there are league winners amongst the rookies. Unfortunately, it isn’t always the obvious ones. Last year, Jonathan Brooks was the top running back option, and he wasn’t even worth a roster spot by season’s end. Bucky Irving turned into that top rookie running back, and those that had him likely finished in the money.
This year, fantasy players will go into this season assuming the best of the Raiders’ running back. However, this is a rookie running back on the Raiders. That means the Raiders’ offensive line, wide receiving core, and Geno Smith in a new situation. Why wouldn’t teams just put seven or eight in the box on every play to stop their one big offensive weapon?
The Raiders have Brock Bowers, but besides that, Jeanty is the only offensive weapon unless Jack Bech is years ahead of where he’s expected to be as a receiver. Jakobi Meyers is currently the number one guy on the wide receiver depth chart. There is just too much pressure on Jeanty to perform, and the Raiders don’t exactly have an easy schedule. They have six games against great AFC West defenses. They do get a last place schedule which should help some weeks, but we’ll see.
4. Christian McCaffrey
San Francisco 49ers
Would we love to buy low on Christian McCaffrey? Of course, but those days might be over. After the insane 2023 season CMC put together for the 49ers, people will give him a chance as long as there’s even an inkling he could be healthy. And there’s good reason for that. His 2023 season was one of the best ever for a running back.
PFF reports that more than 58% of teams with McCaffrey in 2023 made the fantasy championship game. That’s an insane percentage of payouts for one player. It might be the most impactful season we’ve ever seen. Compare that with Barkley, who was only in about 35% of championship games last year.
However, this isn’t the risk worth taking. CMC is going to go somewhere between the end of the first round and the middle of the second. Teams are going to take him early hoping to hit a home run. They trust him more than, say, De’Von Achane and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Yet, his risk is much, much higher. If the 49ers aren’t good right off the bat, which many say isn’t likely, and if CMC is still not playing with a full deck of cards, it is hard to argue for his value at this pick.
5. Ladd McConkey
Los Angeles Chargers
Ladd McConkey is getting a ton of love this summer. Many really liked what the former second-round pick brought to the table in his rookie season. The Chargers were the hard-rushing team many expected them to be under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, but there was chemistry between McConkey and Justin Herbert that was hard to deny.
That’s the reason McConkey is rocketing up draft boards. Many think he could join the elite wide receiver club, but we should temper expectations. McConkey is a good player in an interesting situation. That situation might not bear the fruit it did last season.
The Chargers didn’t address the wide receiver position like some would have hoped, but they definitely added a lot more talent. It’s not a one-person room anymore. The Chargers welcomed back Mike Williams and drafted both Tre Harris out of Ole Miss and KeAndre Lambert-Smith out of Auburn. On top of that, the Chargers signed former first-round pick Najee Harris and drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round, giving them a prominent running back duo. McConkey has a lot more competition for touches this season, and it could cut into his impact, especially in PPR leagues.
6. Chase Brown
Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown had himself a nice season last year. He finished 10th among running backs, beating out superstars at the position like Jonathan Taylor and Breece Hall. The Bengals' offense was insane last year, and it still should be insane this year. However, Brown isn’t exactly a mainstay in the offense. In fact, most agree that Brown was just lucky to be there and can be replaced.
Now, the Bengals didn’t exactly bring in big competition for Brown, but Zach Moss has had his chances in the past. They drafted Tahj Brooks in the sixth round out of Texas Tech. They aren’t exactly coming into the season with a chance to beat out Brown.
The reason Brown is on this list is where he’s being drafted. People are taking him ahead of Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and Terry McLaurin in PPR leagues, and running backs Kyren Williams and Alvin Kamara. These are players with better resumes and bigger and more consistent impacts. Brown did about as well as one could expect last season, but it’s hard to believe he can repeat his 54 receptions and 11 total touchdowns.
7. Jayden Daniels
Washington Commanders
First and foremost, only spend on two quarterbacks in leagues: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Don’t go big for Patrick Mahomes. Don’t overextend for Jalen Hurts, and definitely don’t go for anyone in the middle unless you’re getting three of them. However, there’s one player who fantasy teams might not allow themselves to get past the second round.
Jayden Daniels was one of the most fun players to watch last season. People want to root for those fun players. That’s how we overdraft these players in fantasy. It’s when we really just want to root for someone that we take a major risk, especially at quarterback. Jayden Daniels is the “it” guy in the NFL. He was incredible his rookie season, and he drove Washington all the way to the NFC Championship Game.
We’ve just seen this flavor in years past. We do trust Daniels's talent, but we don’t trust Washington's success. He’s being taken as early as the second round. That’s too early for anyone not named Jackson or Allen. He could have just a decent season, and that pick could be devastating. Taking him in the second round, or even the third round, means he has to be a top-three quarterback to be worth that pick. He can’t have more than three down games. He had four last season (although one was in Week 18).
8. Kenneth Walker
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks have completely changed their offense. They went with a youth movement after a few years of middling results. The Seahawks were… fine offensively over the past few years. Geno Smith has a ceiling, and he did his best to hit it over the past several seasons. However, they didn’t get very far offensively last season, and it hurt everyone.
This includes Kenneth Walker, who was running back 25 last season. He was supposed to turn into a superstar, but he took four steps back. Injuries piled up, and his explosiveness went with it. The hope has to be that this was a one-season issue, but Walker might not be the same. Those injuries can linger, and it's not of value to test them out. If he works out early in the season, feel free to trade for him.
He also has Zach Charbonnet nipping at his heels. For some reason, the offense never fully went to Charbonnet despite his success when Walker missed games and the struggles from the starter. However, that can’t be the plan this year. If Walker struggles, he won’t be the starter anymore. There is upside with Walker, as his 2023 production is off the charts, and he’s 24 years old, but he’s too much of a risk for his draft position.
9. Rome Odunze
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears' offense is expected to be better in year two of Caleb Williams. They went all in with Ben Johnson as their head coach, and the expectation is that all Bears offensive players will be bargains in fantasy. Just think about the ability to get some of the Detroit Lions players two years ago. Now, everyone on that team has their value inflated through the roof. As you’ll see, there are no Lions on this list because the expectation is that the impact will continue to grow.
But that shouldn’t be the expectation in Chicago. We still have some questions about the offensive line, and there are a lot of mouths to feed. They stuck with D’Andre Swift at running back, and if he repeats last season, there will be a lot of nickel and dime packages in the Bears’ opponents’ future.
Rome Odunze is the player who many expect to have a bigger impact this season. The Bears used a top-10 pick on him to pair with Williams, but he had a minimal impact in 2024. Many will look at him as a high-upside guy, going 36th among wide receivers, but there are too many impactful players at the position. Heck, we see Luther Burden stealing receptions away from him by season’s end. It’s a smaller risk than some on this list, but there will still be impactful players on the board when he gets taken.
10. George Pickens
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys finally have a legitimate wide receiver to pair with CeeDee Lamb. They found a way to trade for George Pickens this offseason, and it only cost a third and fifth-round pick. The lack of trade compensation was confusing. It’s not like the Steelers don’t need Pickens. Sure, they traded for DK Metcalf, but they were desperate for a second receiver last season.
Now the Cowboys have the one-two punch. Pickens will be what he needs to be in Dallas, at least that’s what he says. How will he react as the number two? He hasn’t exactly built the easiest reputation during his time in Pittsburgh. He seems to have needs as a receiver.
Lamb is going to take up most of the air in the quarterback room. He’s one of the best in the business, and Pickens, frankly, isn’t in Lamb’s league. We don’t see him reacting well to that fact, and that is going to cause issues in the locker room. It will be all sunshine and daisies for the first month, and it may even last the first seven games, but it will bite you in the playoffs. This is going to be painful at the worst possible moments. Pickens might hit 20+ points three times in September, but he will have everyone chasing those numbers for the rest of the season.
11. Brian Thomas Jr.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. had some breakout weeks where he was one of the best receivers in fantasy. Thanks to an absolutely insane final six weeks of the season where he never scored fewer than 16 points but his a peak of 32, he finished fourth among wide receivers. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be able to do it again.
This is the one that could bite us the most. Thomas has a chance to be Justin Jefferson. He really showed who he was coming out of LSU, and now he’s the reason for the fantasy upside hope this season. He’s also the reason why Trevor Lawrence’s career isn’t in jeopardy. This Jaguars offense could be great, and they have a new offensive mind in Liam Coen. This should be a slam dunk.
But we’re worried. The Jaguars sent the moon to the Cleveland Browns to select Travis Hunter second overall. They didn’t do that just to make him their second wide receiver. Hunter will be expected to contribute at the highest level, and he could immediately make Thomas a number two. It’s time for the Jaguars to show what they can really be. That’s also a ton of pressure. It might take a year to find their potential.
12. Davante Adams
Los Angeles Rams
Name value goes a long way in fantasy football. People are drafting players based on historical value all the time. Heck, Patrick Mahomes is still getting the love like he’s that guy who throws for 50 touchdowns every year. Davante Adams is getting similar love in fantasy drafts. After another decent season despite the mess that was the New York Jets, Adams signed a deal with the Los Angeles Rams to play on the West Coast.
Adams is the number two behind Puka Nacua. That’s a fine place to be, and he has performed in such a position in the past, but we’re looking at an interesting Rams offense. Nobody on the team had more than seven receiving touchdowns, and none of the pass catchers passed 1,000 yards. This is a team with Kyren Williams, and he takes up the scoring. He had 14 rushing touchdowns last season.
Adams will be a fine player, and he will likely help keep the Rams' window open a little longer, but that won’t necessarily translate to big fantasy stats. Even with Adams on your bench, it will be really hard not to be tempted by his upside. The same happened with Cooper Kupp last year, who had a few big games (including 14 receptions in Week 1) that had owners chasing. Nobody wants to be chasing with players on their roster.
13. Ema Ebuka
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There always seems to be one rookie receiver who really helps fantasy teams right away. Last year, Malik Nabers exploded onto the scene despite the issues the Giants had at quarterback. This year, four wide receivers went in the first round, and two went in the first 10 picks of the second round. They are all interesting receivers from a talent standpoint, but we have to say, we’re weary of every single one of them.
The one we're most worried about is Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver Emeka Egbuka.The Buccaneers took him with the 19th overall pick. We understand why the Bucs took him. They have two superstar receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but both are aging. Godwin just got a big contract this offseason despite coming off injury, so the Bucs made it clear the old heads aren’t going anywhere.
But Egbuka will be a part of the future. If you are in a dynasty league, we love the Egbuka pick if you can get value. However, we’re hard pressed to think he will do anything in redraft leagues. He might not even be worth a roster spot. The Buccaneers' offense is really good with Baker Mayfield slinging the ball, but the third receiver on a top 10 offense isn’t going to do much in fantasy. You’re hoping for an injury here, and that’s not a spot you want to be in.
14. Alvin Kamara
New Orleans Saints
Every year, there is at least one team that is a complete avoidance in fantasy. It might be because they are in a rebuilding year and they don’t want to win. Other times, they have the worst quarterback in the league, and that will tank their offense. There might be injury issues and coaching question marks. Put the New Orleans Saints down for all of the above.
The Saints should be on the “no draft” list for every fantasy player. Whether that’s Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, or Taysom Hill, the Saints are not worth considering no matter where they fall in the draft. Even with Kellen Moore as the team’s head coach, bringing his impactful offense that helped Philadelphia win a Super Bowl, the Saints' offense needs a year to truly stink.
This is a rebuilding year. Alvin Kamara might get traded, but right now, he’s on the Saints, so avoid him, too. He’s been one of the most consistent fantasy options ever, but the other reality is he’s also getting old. Kamara will turn 30 years old before the season begins. That’s the age at which running backs lose their effectiveness. Kamara also relies so heavily on his elusiveness, and with Spencer Rattler at quarterback, we don’t think he will have room to be elusive.
15. Brock Purdy
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy took all the headlines recently when he signed a new deal worth $265 million. The San Francisco 49ers are putting their money on Brock, hoping he will be the guy to take them over the top. After a rough season for San Fran that saw them miss the playoffs, the 49ers took massive losses across the board. Deebo Samuel is in Washington, half the defense left in free agency, and McCaffrey is coming off an injury-riddled season.
When looking at where Purdy is being drafted, he’s going in the same area as Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love. Purdy has a high floor when compared to those players, but his ceiling would be last on that list. His only big-time receiver, outside tight end George Kittle, is Brandon Aiyuk who is coming off a major knee injury. Jauan Jennings had some spark, but he’s another one we’d stay far away from.
Purdy is a good QB for the 49ers, but he’s just not the right player to take in fantasy. Even in Superflex leagues, Purdy will just be frustrating for players. He might have a good week here or there, but he won’t dominate like fantasy owners are hoping he will at least once. Those 40-point weeks seem to be in his past, at least while the 49ers figure out their offense again.
16. Jerry Jeudy
Cleveland Browns
This is one of the picks where we were truly surprised how high he was. Jerry Jeudy is currently being mocked at 59th overall in the draft. He had a really good season last year, looking like a legit WR1, but there are serious red flags in his game and his performance. His 40-point performance against the Denver Broncos in Week 13 was amazing, but who was starting Jeudy in their lineup at that point?
Prior to that 40-point performance, Jeudy finished among the top-10 receivers for that week one, and it was against New Orleans two weeks prior. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, Jeudy’s top finish was 26th among wide receivers. He had multiple single-point performances in PPR leagues, and his late-season run is more scary than settling.
Was this a case of a wide receiver finally syncing with his pre-NFL Draft hype, or was this a fluke run that we’ve seen from dozens of wide receivers in the past? We also might be looking at a WR1 that has Kenny Pickett as his QB. All the talk is around Shedeur Sanders, but he’s a fifth-round pick. The Browns will probably start Dillon Gabriel over him. It’s likely between Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett for QB1, and we don’t love that for this offense.
17. De'Von Achane
Miami Dolphins
Buyer beware on all Miami Dolphins this season. There is very little optimism in South Florida for this team. It was a very strange offseason after what was a disappointing season. Many thought the Dolphins had the makings to take “the step” and become a contender in the AFC East. Instead, they took two steps back, and now everyone is on the hot seat, including head coach Mike McDaniel.
We’re weary of Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Warren, and Jonnu Smith, but there are at least levels of upside to where they are being drafted. De’Von Achane would have to be one of the top running backs in the sport to live up to where people are taking him. The speedster in that backfield is going fifth among running backs, ahead of Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry.
It’s just way too high for a risk this slot. This is the type of draft pick that could ruin years. Achane is a. on a bad team, b. has a history of injuries, and c. built last year’s value on an unsustainable production stat (78 receptions on 87 targets). Achane is a very good player, but there is way too much going against him. His yards per rushing attempt was almost cut in half last year, and his explosiveness was bottled up. He was a fantasy powerhouse because of his PPR acumen, but that likely comes back down to early. Think about it; if he does what Bijan Robinson did last year, which is a really good receiving running back, he would have about 65 fewer points from that aspect in his game. His rushing isn’t good enough to make up for the variance.
18. Xavier Worthy
Kansas City Chiefs
For some reason, the Kansas City Chiefs have been happy to rest on their laurels. Well, the reason is they keep going to the Super Bowl, and they’ve won two of the last three times, but this always felt like a house of cards. They aren’t smartly upgrading the offensive line. There are injuries at running back, and the wide receivers aren’t staying healthy while Travis Kelce keeps getting older.
The wide receivers are the interesting part of this formula. The Chiefs have spent assets on the position, drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round, and re-signing Juju Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown. Plus, they have Rashee Rice returning after a lost season.
This is why Worthy is getting the love he’s getting in fantasy drafts. Since the Chiefs spent a first-round pick on him, they assume he will eventually take over the top spot on the depth chart. However, it’s much more likely he is a “change of pace” receiver. Think of a guy like Christian Watson without the injuries. He could easily get 25 points on week, but he could have zero catches the next week. It’s a roller coaster ride we want no part of. We like it here on solid ground.
19. Josh Jacobs
Green Bay Packers
There were questions when the Green Bay Packers gave a big deal to Josh Jacobs last offseason. They cut Aaron Jones just to upgrade with Jacobs, and he was everything they could have wanted in the backfield. Jacobs finished the season with more than 1,300 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. It was Jacobs’ best season by far, and many say his new offense is the reason for his success.
The problem with touchdowns is that they are incredibly inconsistent. Jacobs had had double-digit touchdown seasons twice before last year. Both times, he followed them up by dropping back to single-digit touchdowns. We don’t expect anything different this year just because he’s on a different team.
Jacobs is even drafted to fall back to Earth a little, but we believe he’ll fall back even further. He finished as RB6 last year, but he’s being drafted as the 10th running back on the board. Ashton Jeanty pushes him down, as does CMC returning from injury, but Jacobs is also prone to a possible injury. He had more than 300 carries last season, which often leads to wear and tear.
20. Cooper Kupp
Seattle Seahawks
Cooper Kupp had one of the best fantasy seasons we’ve ever seen, and he capped it off by carrying the Los Angeles Rams to the Super Bowl, their first title since the Greatest Show on Turf and a move from St. Louis. Since that season, fantasy owners have been chasing that success.
And so were the Rams, but they finally called it on Kupp this offseason. They cut him and allowed him to sign with their division rival. Reports said that Kupp wanted to stick around on the West Coast, and he chose to continue his career in Seattle. We’ve already talked about some of the intricacies of Seattle’s offense changing, but we didn’t get into all of the details.
Seattle got rid of its two most iconic receivers (DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett) and quarterback (Geno Smith) and failed to upgrade its offensive line. They signed Sam Darnold to what amounts to a one-year deal with some team options, and they put their faith in their running back duo and Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Will Kupp be able to overcome this change? His injury history is too long and his age is too high to put any type of faith in that.