Seahawks playoff scenarios: What’s at stake win or lose in Week 17 vs. Bears

It's been a frustrating couple of weeks for the Seattle Seahawks. An injury to Geno Smith left the team without much hope in a Sunday night blowout at the hands of the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, and a potentially massive upset over the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday went up in smokes thanks to a late Justin Jefferson touchdown and yet another miscommunication between Smith and receiver DK Metcalf.

Once on firm footing for a playoff spot at 8-5, Mike McDonald's team now finds itself firmly on the bubble at 8-7, with just about everything riding on a Thursday night matchup against the Chicago Bears in Week 17. While the Seahawks can't be totally eliminated with a loss, the outlook isn't great. Here's everything at stake for Seattle with two games remaining in the regular season.

Seahawks playoff scenarios: What happens with loss to Bears

A loss to Chicago on Thursday would drop Seattle to 8-8 on the year. The Seahawks are already eliminated from Wild Card contention, as they can't catch either the Vikings or Packers in the standings and would lose out to the Commanders via the conference record tiebreaker even if both teams finished 10-7. But losing to the Bears would also put the Seahawks at risk of being eliminated from NFC West contention as well, as a Rams win over the Cardinals on Saturday would hand the division to Los Angeles.

If L.A. loses on this weekend, then Seattle would remain alive despite a loss, setting up a win-and-in Week 18 showdown between these two teams at SoFi Stadium on Jan. 5.

Seahawks playoff scenarios: What happens with win over Bears

The best thing that can happen for Seattle is a Rams loss this weekend, which would render the Seahawks result on Thursday meaningless and leave the team in control of its destiny entering Week 18. If L.A. beats Arizona, Seattle would need to a win over Chicago to keep hope of a division title alive.

If both the Seahawks and Rams win in Week 17, then things get complicated. L.A. would be a game up at 10-6. Seattle could force a tie at 10-7 with a win over the Matthew Stafford and Co. in Week 18, and with identical records in division, conference and common games, we'd move to strength of victory to settle things. The Rams have the edge there as things stand, and they can clinch that tiebreaker this week with at least four wins from the following six games: Vikings (vs. Packers), Bills (vs. Jets), 49ers (vs. Lions), Commanders (vs. Falcons), Bengals (vs. Broncos) and Browns (vs. Dolphins).

If four or more of those teams win, then it doesn't matter what Seattle does on Thursday night; a Los Angeles win over the Cardinals on Saturday clinches the division for the Rams. But if at least three of those games break the Seahawks' way, the game in L.A. in Week 18 is for all the marbles.