Sean Payton getting reckless could ruin perfect Broncos NFL Draft plan

The Denver Broncos could make an aggressive trade in the 2025 NFL Draft, but it would likely be a mistake.
Mountain West Championship - UNLV v Boise State
Mountain West Championship - UNLV v Boise State | Loren Orr/GettyImages

In 2024, the Philadelphia Eagles proved that the fundamental principles of football have not changed. On their championship run to Super Bowl LIX, the Eagles relied on old adages: games are won in the trenches, the running game travels, and defense wins champions. Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley led his team to a championship after becoming just the ninth player in NFL history to tally 2,000 rushing yards in a single season.

Running backs saw their market value shrink exponentially as Super Bowl winners frequently featured a rotation of low-cost, high-value rushers. That tide began to shift last season. Running backs enjoyed a renaissance, and teams that gambled on acquiring premier running backs reaped the benefits. Along with Barkley, offseason acquisitions such as Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon made significant contributions to their teams.

The NFL has been known as a copycat league, and the rushing renaissance could ultimately help the draft stock of incoming running back prospects. In particular, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, the top running back prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft, could reap the benefits. 

Broncos could replicate Eagles recipe, but it would be costly

The Denver Broncos are set up to replicate Philadelphia’s recipe, but they’ll have to be mindful about not overcorrecting this offseason. Jeanty is one of the most talented prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft, but his rising draft stock could put him out of reach for Denver. The Broncos currently hold the No. 20 overall pick, and ESPN’s Aaron Schatz suggested that they would have to catapult the Dallas Cowboys at No. 12 overall to select Jeanty. 

Moving up that far would prove to be costly, but Schatz argued that Denver’s stellar offensive line could make the “bold move worth it.” The Broncos finished No. 1 in run block win rate (74.9 percent), according to ESPN Analytics. Despite the success of their offensive line, Denver’s subpar running back room ranked just 24th in run DVOA.

Although Jeanty would undoubtedly boost Denver’s offensive production, they are still a young team with plenty of roster needs. An aggressive draft trade would make sense for a team that’s one or two pieces away from becoming Super Bowl contenders, but the Broncos are likely still a couple of years away. After the disastrous trade for former quarterback Russell Wilson, perhaps it would be wiser for Denver to hold onto their draft capital.

Regardless, Jeanty could slip in the draft and come within distance for Denver to acquire him. If that happens, a trade could make sense. Broncos head coach Sean Payton is known for heavily utilizing his running backs, and Jeanty’s talent could be difficult to resist. The talented prospect could instantly become the focal point of Denver’s offensive attack. Falling to Denver may not seem ideal, but it could prove to be beneficial for Jeanty in the long run. Rather than getting stuck on a team that can’t provide adequate blocking, the run-oriented Broncos could offer him an opportunity to thrive.

As the NFL’s rule changes began to favor pass-heavy offenses, teams shifted away from the run and began using quick passes to exploit run-stopping linebackers in base personnel. Defenses adjusted by utilizing athletic linebackers in pass coverages, and offenses are beginning to recalibrate by punishing lighter defensive fronts on the ground. Like the Eagles, the Detroit Lions also found success by drafting running back Jahmyr Gibbs after assembling an elite offensive line.

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