SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch, Week 7: Magnolia crushes Ole Miss' chances

College Football Playoff bubble watch for the SEC

These are the weekends in college football we live for. We had the huge conference matchups to tickle our fancies across the Power Four, as well as most of those games living up to the hype. While Red River was a lopsided affair in Dallas with Texas reigning supreme over Oklahoma, Magnolia went down to the wire in Baton Rouge with LSU getting on top of a favored Ole Miss team during overtime.

Other College Football Playoff contenders in the SEC had challenges with their conference foes as well. Alabama nearly blew it vs. South Carolina. Georgia played with its food all day vs. Mississippi State. Tennessee needed overtime to get past Florida at home. All the while, more and more teams are looking like serious contenders to make the playoff, while even more are looking like total frauds.

As I do every week, I will break down where all 16 teams in the SEC stand when it comes to making the 12-team College Football Playoff. There are a few locks, some teams firmly in the bubble, others where the bubble is about to burst, a pair of good, but not great really fun teams, and of course, teams that are pretty much already playing for next year. Where is your favorite SEC team at today?

Let's start by unveiling who would be my 12 teams in the College Football Playoff field after Week 7.

1. Texas Longhorns (6-0) (Projected SEC champion)
2. Oregon Ducks (6-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
3. Iowa State Cyclones (6-0) (Projected Big 12 champion)
4. Clemson Tigers (5-1) (Projected ACC champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) (Projected SEC runner-up)
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) (Projected SEC at-large)
9. Miami Hurricanes (6-0) (Projected ACC runner-up)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
11. LSU Tigers (5-1) (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (5-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

Now, let's break down where every SEC team stands after Week 7 regarding the playoff picture.

College Football Playoff locks

Texas Longhorns (6-0)

Texas is the team to beat in college football right now. The Longhorns smoked arch rival Oklahoma in Red River. When Quinn Ewers is healthy, this has to be the pick to win the national championship. Of course, Texas hosts Georgia next week and has a date with little brother Texas A&M at the end of the season. While the Longhorns could go undefeated, they should get to Atlanta with an 11-1 record.

Georgia Bulldogs (5-1)

My beloved Georgia Bulldogs frustrate me. They were my pick to win the national championship. Although I feel confident that they will do enough with their brutal regular-season schedule to make the expanded playoff. I don't know if they are good enough to get past the quarterfinals this year. This feels like a top-eight team in the sport, but I wouldn't tab them as a serious title contender right now.

Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1)

It has to be so beyond frustrating being an Alabama football fan right now. When the Crimson Tide are firing on all cylinders, they look like the best team in the country. Unfortunately, they often get stuck shifting gears. It is apparent that this is Kalen DeBoer's team now and not Nick Saban's. Alabama is the type of team that can beat Georgia, but lose to Vanderbilt. They nearly fell to South Carolina...

College Football Playoff bubble teams

LSU Tigers (5-1)

I am as shocked as you are to see the LSU Tigers firmly in the College Football Playoff bubble at the halfway point. They are essentially my last team in at No. 11 after the Week 7 slate. After losing to USC in a neutral-site affair in Las Vegas, the Bayou Bengals have won five games in a row. I was looking for a signature victory and they may have gotten it by beating Ole Miss at home in overtime.

Texas A&M Aggies (5-1)

I cannot wait for LSU at Texas A&M in a few weeks. This has become one of the best rivalries created out of a previous wave of conference realignment. These teams are evenly matched and absolutely hate each other. Right now, I think the Aggies are cooking with napalm across the board. Mike Elko is the perfect head coach for them. I just wonder if Conner Weigman can be trusted for the duration...

Tennessee Volunteers (5-1)

I am pretty much all out on Tennessee. The Volunteers have looked like paper tigers since coming off their bye after beating a middling Oklahoma team in Norman. A road loss to Arkansas followed up by a narrow overtime victory at home over Florida is not what Vol Nation was hoping for. Nico Iamaleava has hit a wall with his development. I do not know if this team beats Alabama, Georgia or Vanderbilt.

College Football Playoff bubble about to pop

Ole Miss Rebels (5-2)

Even if it doesn't feel great on the whole, I feel vindicated in doubting Ole Miss' playoff chances right before the start of the season. This was the year where everything was supposed to be coming up aces for them. Instead, they are 5-2 on the year, but a tough 1-2 in SEC play at the halfway point. Losing to Kentucky was bad, but losing to LSU made it so much worse. Ole Miss is on life support.

Missouri Tigers (5-1)

Missouri went out and obliterated UMass this past weekend. This is exactly what Eliah Drinkwitz's team needed to do stay alive in the playoff mix. However, with how soft the Tigers' schedule is going forward, they pretty much need to beat Alabama in a few weeks to have any realistic shot of getting in. One more loss may cross the off for all intents and purposes, but they won't be getting in at 9-3.

Oklahoma Sooners (4-2)

This is not a playoff team. Not even close. However, there is one thing Oklahoma does have going for it the rest of the way. If they were to somehow win five of their final six regular-season games, OU would have a legitimate shot of getting in as a 9-3 team. The Sooners may have the toughest remaining schedule in the country. The problem is they haven't shown they can beat anyone good.

Fun, but not College Football Playoff caliber

Vanderbilt Commodores (4-2)

I want to say Vanderbilt is the College Football Playoff bubble so badly, but I cannot quite get there. At 4-2, this feels very much like a bowl team. They should get to 5-2 win a win over Ball State next week. Then again, this team lost to Georgia State earlier in the season. While I don't think they will beat Texas, Vanderbilt has an extreme dark horse chance of possibly getting in with a 9-3 record. Crazy!

Arkansas Razorbacks (4-2)

Arkansas has a big SEC win already by getting past Tennessee at home two weeks ago. Like Vanderbilt, this feels very much like a bowl team, but will need just about every lucky break imaginable to get into the playoff this year. Arkansas will get in if the Hogs win out. While the Texas A&M loss does not look bad at all, the Oklahoma State defeat is looking much worse by the week.

Not a College Football Playoff team in 2024

South Carolina Gamecocks (3-3)

There is a chance South Carolina is the best team that may not get to a bowl game I have seen in my decade-long career covering college football. This team has a menacing defense, one that plays with tremendous fire and passion at all three levels. South Carolina can run the football, but tends to run out of gas offensively in big moments, as in its potential upset bids vs. LSU and Alabama last week.

Florida Gators (3-3)

Even in defeat, I think it is way too early for Florida to fire Billy Napier. The Gators nearly upset a struggling Tennessee Volunteers team in Neyland on Saturday, but fell in overtime. Their brutal schedule does not let up with games vs. Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss on the horizon. If this team even approaches a bowl game, I would let Napier coach in 2025. It all starts with a win over Kentucky.

Kentucky Wildcats (3-3)

I am starting to wonder if Kentucky has enough firepower offensively to win six games this year. They may have gotten the big upset win over Ole Miss in Oxford a few weeks ago, but were no match for regional rival Vanderbilt this past weekend. Mark Stoops knows defense, but inherent limitations offensively will have this team playing behind the eight ball in most of its games moving forward.

Auburn Tigers (2-4)

Auburn is not a good football team. It may be a tad premature to fire Hugh Freeze, but his coaching tactics are not taking just yet. Auburn did not prioritize getting better in the transfer portal this past season, and it is showing up big time. Next year will start with Freeze sitting on the hot seat. My biggest concern is will he have enough time to keep the finicky fanbase and rabid boosters at bay.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-5)

Jeff Lebby and his staff should consider Saturday's road trip to Athens a morale victory. Did Georgia overlook them? Most definitely, but his Bulldogs came to play with an upset bid on their minds. It was very brief, but there were moments where I saw what Mississippi State looked like under Mike Leach and Dan Mullen. Give it time and it may work out for Lebby. Right now, this team may win three games.

It will be interesting to see how the bubble shakes out after next weekend's heavy slate of games.