SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch, Week 8: Is Alabama not going to make it?

College Football Playoff bubble watch for the SEC

There are no undefeated teams left in the SEC. Georgia bludgeoned Texas at DKR to become bowl eligible, while simultaneously handing the Longhorns their first loss of the season. While the Dawgs can rest easy heading into their bye week ahead of The Cocktail Party, the Longhorns need to be ready for the giant killer that lives off the banks of the Cumberland in the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Across the SEC, Tennessee smoked some cigars, as it was close, but no cigar for Alabama in the Third Saturday in October. LSU won the Battle for the Boot quite comfortably over Arkansas in their border war or sorts. Ole Miss was on a bye, while Missouri and Texas A&M got all they could handle from Auburn and Mississippi State. There may not be a sadder team in the league than Oklahoma.

As I do every week, I will give you an updated SEC College Football Playoff bubble. Some teams are comfortably in this week, while others are very much on the fence. Even more concerning, there are alarm bells going off for several teams who simply cannot afford another loss on the season to have any realistic shot of getting in. Of course, there are teams who are already starting to play for 2025.

Let's start by unveiling who would be my 12 teams in the College Football Playoff field after Week 8.

1. Oregon Ducks (7-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) (Projected SEC champion)
3. Clemson Tigers (6-1) (Projected ACC champion)
4. Iowa State Cyclones (7-0) (Projected Big 12 champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
7. Texas Longhorns (6-1) (Projected SEC runner-up)
8. Miami Hurricanes (7-0) (Projected ACC runner-up)
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
10. LSU Tigers (6-1) (Projected SEC at-large)
11. Tennessee Volunteers (6-1) (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (5-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And these would be my first four teams out of the College Football Playoff field after Week 8.

• 13. Indiana Hoosiers (7-0) (Big Ten)
• 14. Texas A&M Aggies (6-1) (SEC)
• 15. BYU Cougars (7-0) (Big 12 runner-up)
• 16. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2) (SEC)

Now, let's break down where every SEC team stands after Week 8 regarding the playoff picture.

College Football Playoff locks

Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)

Barring something unforeseen, Georgia is now pretty much a lock to get in. The Dawgs needed one win over either Texas, Ole Miss or Tennessee after falling to Alabama a few weeks back and got it over the Longhorns. The Dawgs have the best win in the country, but their tough road loss to Alabama is what will prevent them from being No. 1 in the next AP Top 25 Poll. This team is frustrating, but great.

Texas Longhorns (6-1)

Much like Georgia, Texas was going to be a playoff lock this week, regardless of what happened on Saturday night at DKR. The Longhorns probably need to beat Texas A&M at the end of the season to solidify their inclusion into the playoff. The last thing this team needs is to let the Georgia loss compound and suffer a second defeat at the hands of Vanderbilt over in Nashville next weekend.

Tennessee Volunteers (6-1)

Tennessee is in the same bucket as Texas at 6-1. The Volunteers should get in at 10-2 after beating Alabama. They essentially need to split the Georgia and Vanderbilt games to ensure them of playoff inclusion for the first time ever. While the passing game finally came alive in the second half, this team is not winning a national championship for as long as Nico Iamaleava is still a liability at quarterback.

College Football Playoff bubble teams

LSU Tigers (6-1)

LSU is starting to impress me. The Bayou Bengals are coming off impressive back-to-back wins over rivals Ole Miss and Arkansas. Next up is another huge rival of theirs in Texas A&M. The winner of that game will almost certainly join the likes of Georgia, Texas and Tennessee as playoff locks next week. A loss is not going to cross the Tigers or the Aggies off entirely, as they still have not lost in SEC play.

Texas A&M Aggies (6-1)

Texas A&M held on vs. a Mississippi State team that is trying to figure out how to win. The Bulldogs are not the worst team in the Power Four, even though their record might indicate that. The Aggies are well-coached and talent-laden. However, for as much as I love Mike Elko as a head coach, I am still not sold on Conner Weigman as a starting quarterback. This team is rolling, but so is their rival LSU.

College Football Playoff bubble about to pop

Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2)

I wasn't kidding when I said the loser of the Third Saturday in October was going to go to a really dark place. After holding vs. Georgia a few weeks back, Alabama has lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee with a close call at home vs. South Carolina sandwiched in between. Simply put, Alabama needs to beat LSU and Missouri to make the playoff. At 10-2, they will be in, but a third loss probably has them out.

Missouri Tigers (6-1)

Missouri is annoying and needs to suffer a second loss on the season so the Tigers don't take one of seven at-large bids that belong to more deserving College Football Playoff contenders. While Brady Cook coming back from the hospital to set up the game-winning drive was awesome, Auburn is not awesome. The Tigers probably need to win out for the Selection Committee to take them seriously.

Ole Miss Rebels (5-2)

Ole Miss was going to remain in the playoff mix no matter what happened this past week. The Rebels were on a bye week after losing Magnolia to rival LSU in Death Valley. For all intents and purposes, Ole Miss needs to beat Georgia to have a realistic shot of getting in. They have one of the weakest schedules in the SEC, so a third conference loss is going to do them in. This team will not make it in.

Vanderbilt Commodores (5-2)

If not for the damning Georgia State loss earlier in the season, I would say Vanderbilt would have a legitimate shot of making the playoff. Losing a close one to Missouri is not the end of the world, but the 'Dores probably need to win out to get in. The good news for them is Diego Pavia is The Live Dog. If anybody can beat Texas and Tennessee in route to going 10-2 (7-1), it is the king of college football.

Tough outs, but not College Football Playoff-caliber

South Carolina Gamecocks (4-3)

We can officially take Shane Beamer off the hot seat. They beat the ever-living snot out of Oklahoma in Norman on Saturday. While the South Carolina Gamecocks have arguably the toughest remaining schedule, they just need to "steal" one over Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Clemson to get to six wins. They are going to get one of those teams, in addition to beating the brakes off poor Wofford...

Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3)

Arkansas did not have enough juice offensively to keep pace with Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU aerial attack. Thus, the Hogs are not going to make the playoff this season. However, I have seen enough out of Sam Pittman's team this season that leads me to believe he will be safe heading into next season. It may come down to how well the Hogs play in November, but this feels like a bowl team.

Florida Gators (4-3)

Maybe we need to put a pin on Florida firing Billy Napier? While the second-half of their schedule looms large, they just need to pull off an upset over either Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU to get to 6-6, as arch rival Florida State is on quit watch. I think it may come down to the Ain't No Sunshine Showdown in terms of his job security, as I don't think he can finish the season on a five-game skid.

Not a College Football Playoff team in 2024

Oklahoma Sooners (4-3)

Booty cheeks. What a sad bag of crap the Oklahoma Sooners have devolved into under Brent Venables' guidance. Pivoting off Jackson Arnold in favor of Michael Hawkins Jr. may have made sense in the moment, but nothing Oklahoma is doing under Venables is making sense any more. If not for a gargantuan buyout, Oklahoma should be looking for a new head coach. This program is cooked.

Kentucky Wildcats (3-4)

Kentucky is a frustrating mess. To me, they are a worse version of South Carolina, two very strong defensive-minded teams with mobile quarterbacks and very chaotic offenses in nature. The only problem with that statement is South Carolina may not even be a bowl team. Kentucky needs to win three of its final five games to get in. The Wildcats must steal one vs. Tennessee, Texas or Louisville.

Auburn Tigers (2-5)

There is a chance Auburn doesn't win another game. The chances of the Tigers going 0-for-the-SEC are very much in play. They are 0-4 already with a road game at Kentucky, home dates vs. Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, before finishing at Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Getting ULM at home is not a day at the park. If Auburn loses out, I think that John Cohen will need to seriously consider firing Hugh Freeze.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-6)

Mississippi State is not a good football team, far from it in fact. However, I have seen in recent weeks that the Bulldogs are playing pretty sound offensive football with Michael Van Buren Jr. at quarterback. This team is starting to buy into Jeff Lebby's teachings. I don't think they will beat Tennessee, but they are going to upset someone on their schedule to finish around 4-8 this season.

The only thing that I know for certain is the SEC playoff bubble is going to look vastly different again.