Separating SEC contenders from pretenders after Missouri rolls, Tennessee rebounds

Let's take stock after a Shake-up Saturday around the SEC.
Florida v Tennessee
Florida v Tennessee / Johnnie Izquierdo/GettyImages
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This Saturday brought showdowns all over the best conference in the country, with three different ranked-on-ranked matchups promising to shake up the SEC standings. And sure enough, a shakeup is exactly what we got during the afternoon slate: The shorthanded Tennessee Volunteers blasted the previously red-hot Florida Gators, while Missouri rolled to an impressive win at Mississippi State and Auburn survived a game effort from Ole Miss.

So, as the SEC round robin rolls on, where do things stand? Let's use Saturday's slate as an excuse to take stock a bit, and see who's rising, who's falling and who we should be taking seriously come conference tournament time.

SEC Contenders

Auburn

Was there any doubt? Saturday's 92-82 track meet against Ole Miss was a reminder that Bruce Pearl's team is capable of beating you however you'd like to play. They have among the best offenses and the best defenses in the country, they have fearless guard play and, most importantly of all, they have a star in Johni Broome who can go get them a bucket when they really need one. This is the most complete team in the conferenc, if not the whole country.

Alabama

Once again, the Crimson Tide's defense leaves a bit to be desired. But once again, it probably won't matter against all but the very best teams in the country. Nate Oats' offense is just that good, second in the nation and first in the SEC in efficiency so far this season. Alabama, as always, loves to hoist from 3, but they actually don't hit them at a particularly impressive clip. Rather, it's the way those attempts tilt the math in their favor, and the space it creates for them inside the arc, that's been so difficult for teams to deal with. The Tide can be exploited, but you have to keep up with them first.

Florida

Florida had a no-good, very bad day on Saturday, shooting just 4-of-27 from beyond the arc in an ugly loss to a Tennessee team that was without star guard Zakai Zeigler. But we're willing to give the Gators a mulligan, considering just how good they've been — especially on the offensive end — of late. Rick Barnes is capable of dragging even the best offenses to hell once in a while, but this Florida team can still come at you in so many different ways in addition to being a quietly elite defensive team. They're a notch below the two previous teams on this list, and they've gotten beat in a couple of track meets this year, but they can absolutely cut down the nets in Nashville.

Tennessee

What's that saying about defense winning championships? Tennessee looked dead in the water when Zeigler went down with a knee injury, but when you guard like these Vols do, you're never out of it — no matter how ugly things get on the offensive end. Tennessee will almost certainly need Zeigler back and healthy to make a deep run in March, but Barnes won't tolerate anything less than maximum defensive effort, and that makes it tough to count this team out. Now, if we could just get someone not named Chaz Lanier to make a shot ...

Missouri

How 'bout them Tigers? Missouri went into Starkville and pasted Mississippi State on Saturday, stamping themselves as a team to be taken seriously in SEC race in the process. The advanced stats haven't quite caught up yet, but this has been a top-five offense and defense in the conference since SEC play began, and that kind of balance earns them a spot here. The defense can get a little spotty when the turnovers aren't flowing freely (see: their 16-point loss at Auburn last month) but when they're running hot they can beat just about anyone.

SEC Pretenders

Kentucky

Hear me out here, Big Blue Nation. Mark Pope has done a remarkable job in his first season in Lexington, and you've clearly won the divorce with John Calipari. But history tells us that the teams most likely to go on deep tournament runs are the teams that don't have any one obvious weakness. Unfortunately for Kentucky, the defense — 16th in the SEC since the start of conference play, per KenPom — definitely qualifies at this point. They simply don't do enough to put stress on opposing offenses, and that puts a lot of pressure on their own offense to win shootouts. When Lamont Butler is cooking, that's easy enough, but losses to Ohio State and Georgia show the floor when it's not.

Texas A&M

Buzz Williams is a personal favorite, consistently producing some of the toughest teams in the country on a yearly basis. Unfortunately, titles aren't typically won on grit alone, and I still have some questions about whether this team can score enough in the half-court to win three or four games in a row come March. They've enjoyed among the easiest SEC schedules so far, with wins over Oklahoma (twice), LSU, Texas and Ole Miss; when the competition ratchets up — they face Tennessee, Florida and Auburn in a 10-day span at the end of the regular season — I'm curious to see whether they'll be able to keep pace.

Ole Miss

Maybe this is a bit harsh, but KenPom has been slightly down on the Rebels all year, and it was disconcerting to see a team that needs to win with defense get picked apart late in the loss to Auburn on Saturday. That's become something of a theme of late, during a stretch of four losses in five games. Chris Beard is a heck of a coach, and I'm confident that Ole Miss will get things figured out and be a very tough out in the NCAA Tournament. But I just don't know if they're consistent enough offensively to really threaten the best teams in this conference.

Vanderbilt

The fact that we're even having this conversation shows just what a tremendous job Mark Byington has done in his first season in Nashville. Unfortunately, as you'd expect from a rebuild-on-the-fly like this, the Commodores just feel a little too limited to be considered true title contenders: a little too soft on the defensive end (they're 16th in effective field-goal percentage in conference play, per KenPom), a little too reliant on Jason Edwards to carry things on the offensive end. Wins over Tennessee and Kentucky at home were awfully impressive, but I need to see them do it more — and do it on the road — before I buy in.

Mississippi State

That's now five losses in seven games for the Bulldogs, and it feels like the air is slowly leaking out of the balloon here. Chris Jans wants to win methodically and win with defense, which is why the team's regression on that end of the court this season has been so troubling. Josh Hubbard is a heck of a player, and there's still time to figure things out. But right now, I'm not sure what exactly Mississippi State has to hang its hat on, or how it can beat two or three elite teams in a row.

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