Sony Open expert picks 2025: PGA Tour golf predictions and analysis for Waialae

The start of the PGA Tour season continues the familiar ebbs and flows golf fans know for another tournament out in Hawaii, following last week's The Sentry this week with the Sony Open in Hawaii. Obviously, as this is not a signature event, the big appeal here isn't necessarily star power (though there is some of that) but rather the first full-field event of 2025.

We were painfully knocking at the door of a monster first week of the season with our PGA Tour expert picks as Collin Morikawa finished runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama, the latter of whom headlines the Sony Open field. But we still ended up with a postive week as Sungjae Im was comfortably in the Top 10 and Harry Hall was also comfortably in the Top 20. We love to see it.

However, never celebrate after one week, especially when it comes to golf predictions. We're still dialed in and are here with our Sony Open picks to win, to finish Top 10, for One and Done, and finally a couple of sleepers who have our attention.

Golf betting record in 2025: 2-2-0, +1.0 Units | One and Done Total for 2025: $2,160,000 (Morikawa at The Sentry: $2,160,000)

Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sony Open golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done

Pick to win the Sony Open: Keegan Bradley (+2500)

While I try not to be a sucker for narratives, it feels like Keegan Bradley is ultra-motivated in 2025 to be a playing captain for the United States Ryder Cup team in the fall. And we've already seen some signs with it as his last four finishes starting with his win at the BMW have been win, T21, fifth, and T15. Bradley finished T2 at the Sony Open last year and has a game perfectly suited for the accuracy and approach test that Waialae demands. So let's get him early out of the gate with a big win for his resumé.

Top 10 pick for the Sony Open: J.T. Poston (+333)

I certainly would've felt better about J.T. Poston had he not lost 2.2 strokes on approach and 2.45 strokes on the greens last week at The Sentry. At the same time, Waialae has been quite kind to Poston as he's consistently improved there, including outright sixth last year and T21 the year before. Moreover, in the fall, Poston was hot with a win at Shriners and T5 at The RSM Classic. Poston is best suited at a shorter-hitting approach contest overall in his career, which suits the Sony Open. I like for him to continue showing out well at this even with nice odds for a Top 10 for one of the better players in the field.

One and Done pick for the Sony Open: Daniel Berger

We'll unpack Daniel Berger a bit more momentarily but I'm comfortable taking a swing at the Sony Open for him in any One and Done league. Berger is trending in the right direction after returning from injury last year and having plenty of ups and downs and, though I can't see myself using him at many points throughout the season in OaD leagues, this feels like a nice spot to save some names and still get a nice finish.

Sleepers to watch at Waialae for the Sony Open

Top 20 sleeper pick for the Sony Open (0.9 Units): Daniel Berger (+220)

More on Berger, we haven't seen him at Waialae since 2021 but, the last time he did play the Sony, he finished T7. It makes perfect since with his approach play and overall game and how they fit here. More importantly, Berger is starting to look back to health. He finished T2 at The RSM Classic in his last tournament and has another Top 20 in his last three starts as well. He's gained on approach in three of his last four measured tournaments but the short game has leveled out now, which was a big problem in 2024. So getting a chance to be early on a Top 20, I love this play on Berger.

Sleeper pick to win the Sony Open (0.1 Units): Lucas Glover (+8000)

Who's No. 1 in the Sony Open field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds? That would be none other than Lucas Glover. He seems like a perfect fit at Waialae with the demand for length off the tee being lessened. What really stands out, though, is that the putter hasn't been a problem for Glover as of late, actually gaining strokes over his last 36 rounds on the greens. At 80-1, there are worse swings to take than eyeing someone like Glover.