Steelers news: Is George Pickens a gift or curse, Zach Frazier's brilliance, and Mike Tomlin's future
By DJ Dunson
The Pittsburgh Steelers are slumping into the postseason with all the momentum of a Squid Game contestant. After each of their last four games, the mood has been increasingly morose. They’re alive in the championship hunt, but they’re living on borrowed time. Heading on the road for a rubber match against the Baltimore Ravens has the makings of a rout given their play over the last month, which is why the Ratbirds are opening as 10-point faves.
However, in a Black and Blue division matchup, anything is possible, which is what Steelers fans are internalizing to feed their desperate hopes of an upset. Russell WIlson is captaining a single-engine offense in an era of jet propulsion offenses. George Pickens is regressing emotionally. The defense is operating as 11 individuals instead of as a symbiotic unit. The vibes are terrible.
Leading off with the George Pickens conundrum
George Pickens is the mascot for that discontent. His saga never stops in Pittsburgh. It only takes breaks. Very few teams rely so heavily on such a volatile personality. The Steelers chasm between Pickens and their rotating window of part-time targets posing as No. 2’s only exacerbates those issues.
There are streakier players, but emotionally he is NFL Draymond Green, if the latter hadn’t been blessed by an all-time great situation that tempered his worst traits. Despite his physical gifts, opinions on Pickens wildly differ.
ESPN’s Seth Walden dissected the analytical component of Pickens’ net-positive value to Russell Wilson.
With wide receiver on the field, the Steelers averaged 0.07 EPA per drop back this season. Without him, that number dropped to minus-0.06. For context, the first number is roughly equivalent to the Rams' passing offense with Matthew Stafford. The latter is the Cowboys, who have started in nearly half of their games. On-off splits can be misleading, but I think Pickens' impact is pretty clear. He allows downfield throws from Wilson -- Pittsburgh's average depth of target is 7.1 yards with Pickens on the field, 6.0 without him -- which the Steelers will need to have postseason success.
However, Trib Live's resident rabblerouser Mark Madden isn't buying it, arguing in strong language that the Steelers should bench Pickens this weekend to send a message.
"Pickens was rotten against Cincinnati on Saturday. Six targets, one catch, zero yards and three balls that were catchable if not outright drops.
Pickens is checked out. Not sure why. But nitwits don’t need a reason.
Pickens walked out of a media scrum last Thursday after being asked a respectful, reasonable question about him and quarterback Russell Wilson not being on the same page.
Pickens behaved like a lunatic on the sideline Saturday.
He argued with fans at Acrisure Stadium, gesturing for them to come to the sideline and presumably fight before teammate Pat Freiermuth intervened."
Therein lies the conundrum for Tomlin. Bench Wilson’s only viable outside receiver or bench him and earn the ire of Steelers fans after they punt a WIld Card matchup against a divisional rival. Pickens will likely play. There’s far too much at stake for Tomlin reputationally and for Wilson to waste a playoff matchup. The time to send a blunt message to Pickens about his behavior this season has passed. However, if his production continues to lag and his antics hurt the team, tough conversations will need to be had about his future entering the final year of his rookie deal.
Zach Frazier is the next great center
Finding the perfect center is a crucial component to modern NFL offenses. As interior rushers become more attuned to rushing the passer up the middle and collapsing the pocket from the inside out to disrupt quarterbacks, or zone read offenses, solid it’s a staple for a secure offensive line.
Pittsburgh found themselves this season in Zack Frazier. Wow the Steelers offensive line has dealt with a myriad of issues in the trenches, Frazier has not been one of them. This season Frazier allowed pressure on 2.3% of his past blocking snaps.
Among rookie offensive lineman who logged at least 175 past blocking snaps, Frazier recorded the lowest pressure rate in the league. Joining him in the top 10 was rookie guard Mason McCormick whose 4.3 percent pressure rate was seventh-lowest. The ultimate twist to the success of their rookie interior linemen is that the Steelers first round pick, tackle Troy Fautanu, missed approximately 90% of his rookie year.
Is the Mike Tomlin era on the clock?
In the last month, the tide has shifted against Mike Tomlin again. At the midpoint of the season, Tomlin was being questioned for his decision to bench Justin Fields for the first month. He was being discussed in the Coach of the Year race and shut down any challengers to his coaching acumen.
However, a four-game losing streak, heading to the postseason has drudged up a discourse about his future as the Steelers head coach. By all indications Tomlin expects to return next season. Still, his reputation within Pittsburgh has taken a hit during his eight-year win-less playoff drought. His .444 playoff win percentage is now the fifth-worst in the modern era for coaches who’ve coached in at least 10 playoff games.
ESPN’s NFL insider Adam Schefter has shared another perspective on Tomlin’s future. During a Sunday NFL Countdown segment, Schefter suggested that teams would look into trading for Tomlin’s services.
On Tuesday morning, Schefter reiterated that Tomlin has a trade clause and the Steelers are not actively moving, but that teams have been observing the situation and feel emboldened to inquire about his availability.
Schefter has a habit of speaking in code when he doesn’t have hard news to break, but if he’s hearing the murmurs, it’s a precursor. Tomlin’s tenure in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era has been disjointed, but it feels less like Bill Belichick in his New England twilight and more like Andy Reid in Philadelphia. He will likely survive the offseason, but substantial improvements have to be made offensively because the franchise’s stagnancy is becoming overwhelmingly conspicuous.