Steelers news: Hard Knocks, TNF snow game, Pittsburgh the NFL's luckiest team?

Sunday’s win over the Baltimore Ravens gave the Pittsburgh Steelers room to breathe in the AFC North and was equally sobering. Pittsburgh winning the way it did on Sunday was the best thing that could have happened for Mike Tomlin though.

As a head coach, finding ways to keep a team on a winning path focused during 18 weeks of regular season football is a tall task. Complacency sets in. Hubris takes over or hunger comes and goes. Russell Wilson’s redemption tour hit a snag. He was horrible in the red zone against Baltimore. TJ Watt didn’t record a sack. Yet, the Steelers pulled out a win, while giving Tomlin plenty of ammunition for them to get better.

If they’d scored 30-plus points, won by a touchdown or more, or made a series of defensive plays that put Baltimore away, some of them may have relaxed before Thursday’s showdown against Cleveland. They’ll be on their toes. These Steelers won’t overwhelm any playoff contenders with talent. The story of these Steelers is scraping by through discipline and precise execution. That’s the crux of Mike Tomlin’s Coach of the Year candidacy and he’s got more work cut out for him.  The wake-up call will be worth it in the long run.

Steelers have been statistically lucky — but wins are wins

The Steelers have had countless Super Bowl teams that were blessed by a lucky bounce. The Steelers franchise’s history as a power player in the NFL began with the luckiest series of events in playoff history.  The greatest play in franchise history is a pun after the birth of Christ because of its miraculous qualities, after a ball bounced off the detestable Jack Tatum's helmet and towards the turf until it was barely scooped out of the air before hitting the turf by Franco Harris.

If you use Pro Football Focus analyst Kevin Cole’s analysis, kismet has fallen in Pittsburgh’s favor this season. The Steelers have gone 4-0 with Wilson under center, however, Cole’s statistical model found that the Steelers should have lost three of their last four games.

Cole’s adjusted scores metric is essentially a tool that downplays higher variance outcomes such as turnovers, special teams, and fumbles. Sportsfoliokings also came to a similar conclusion claiming that their model found the Steelers have more “unearned wins” than any team in the NFL since 2000. 

This is the future Philip K. Dick warned us about. Ultimately, statistical models and simulations have no bearing on the actual games, but the implication is that eventually, these scores will begin swinging in another direction against Pittsburgh. However, the same sentiment was expressed a year ago when the Steelers won 9 of 11 games that were decided by eight points or less. You could argue they also did in tight losses to the Colts and Cowboys.

A little luck doesn’t hurt, but these aren’t Immaculate Reception-grade plays being made by the Steelers. Payton Wilson’s ball heist from Justice Hill was just pure grit. Wilson got burned on a wheel route, recovered, and muscled the ball away from a smaller running back who is inexperienced as a receiver. Nick Herbig’s penetration into the backfield sank the Ravens’ 2-point conversion only happened because Harbaugh allowed a wide receiver infamous for his mistakes in previous stops to block a pass-rushing outside linebacker. Lastly, the substitution of Justin Fields was a gutsy, yet critical call to make.

They don’t beat themselves, which is why Arthur Smith’s reaction to Wilson’s turnover was so dramatic. The Steelers haven’t made those boneheaded plays often this season. The secret to the Steelers' success this season and throughout the Tomlin era is that they’ve won at the margins across every phase of the game by the thinnest of margins. 

No snow days for the Steelers on TNF

Another reason Pittsburgh’s ugly win over Baltimore might have been for the best is that we are officially entering the frostbite portion of the year. Along with that bitter wintry air comes harder footballs, bitter winds, and snow. Snow is anticipated for Thursday in Cleveland, which could impact the respective game plans for both teams. The precipitation is expected to touch down Thursday, but there’s no telling how long it will last. Even if it does, the NFL rarely grants snow days. 

The wind is the bigger variable for Thursday night. The snow should dissipate. There isn't enough expected to interfere with the play on the field. However, gusts of approximately 40 MPH that could exceed 50 MPH are projected to pick up Thursday afternoon through the evening. Given how well Najee Harris has run the ball, that would make it even more imperative that he get off to a hot start against the Browns' defense in poor conditions.

The last snow game Pittsburgh participated in was at Buffalo's snow globe (Highmark) Stadium where the game was postponed for a day. It was ultimately the last one of their 2023 campaign. There’s no telling how much snow will land in this contest if any will stick at all, but it’s a reminder that finesse football wins and not to fret too much about the aesthetics of Sunday’s win. But if they’re serious about Super Bowl glory, they’re more likely to play in conditions that resemble Cleveland at night with the lakes blowing frigid air on the city than the clear conditions they’ve seen so far. 

Steelers are ready for the Hard Knocks life

The official trailer for Hard Knocks In Season with the AFC North dropped on Tuesday evening. The show premieres on Max Dec. 3rd and will run into the playoffs, but filming began during the Steelers bye week. For Steeler faithful, the first few episodes will be pure cinema. The series revolves around them.

You can bet the Steelers’ win over the Ravens will be featured prominently in the early episodes of the series. Interestingly enough, the Steelers have never been the subject of a Hard Knocks whereas the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals have been subjects of the show five times. However, six of the Steelers' final eight games, beginning with Baltimore last week, will be against division foes. 

Russell Wilson and Justin Fields will also be a primary focus, especially considering Fields’ usage as Pittsburgh’s Tayson Hill utilizing his leg in certain packages. Special teams coach Danny Smith is the breakout star of the season on the coaching staff while Tomlin feels like he’s destined to be Hard Knocks’ Denzel Washington. He’s box office, understated, straight-to-the-point, and prepared. You know who he is though. We won’t learn anything new about his process or his personality. He’s a known commodity. 

When they get around to this week’s edition, the focus will be on the Myles Garrett-T.J. Watt dynamic. A year ago, Garrett and Watt finished 1-2 in the Defensive Player of the Year vote. This season, Watt is the frontrunner even if his sack numbers are down from previous seasons.