Steelers News: Mike Tomlin's 2025 outlook, Jets interest in Arthur Smith

Mike Tomlin's performance is all the rage in Pittsburgh right now with a strong emphasis on rage. Yes, his losing streak in the playoffs is troublesome. However, the criticisms over the quality of his coaching this season rings hollow for one simple reason. All the fury over Pittsburgh’s season acts as if the Steelers exist in a vacuum and that every team begins at the same starting point.

The Steelers were expected to finish third in their division. Looking back at NFL.com analytics expert Cynthia Frelund’s preseason AFC and NFC prognostications, the Steelers were expected to finish with 8.6 wins. They finished well above expectations compared to the majority of the NFL.

• Vikings: 7.0 wins (+7.0)
• Commanders: 6.4 wins (+5.6)
• Lions: 10.7 wins (+4.3)
• Chiefs: 11.4 wins (+3.6)
• Broncos: 6.4 wins (+3.6)
• Chargers: 8.0 wins (+3.0)
• Bills: 10.1 wins (+2.9)
• Eagles 11.2 wins: (+2.8)
• Buccaneers: 8.0 wins (+2.0)
• Ravens: 10.5 wins (+1.5)
• Seahawks: 8.5 wins (+1.5)
• Steelers: 8.6 wins (+1.4)
• Packers: 9.8 wins (+1.2)
• Rams: 8.9 wins (+1.1)
• Cardinals: 6.9 wins (+1.1)
• Panthers 4.9 wins (+0.1)
• Colts: 8.1 wins (-0.1)
• Texans: 10.4 wins (-0.4)
• Patriots: 4.7  wins (-0.7)
• Bengals: 10.4  wins (-1.4)
• Raiders: 5.7  wins (-1.7)
• Dolphins: 10.0 wins (-2.0)
• Falcons: 10.1 wins (-2.1)
• Cowboys: 9.2 wins (-2.2)
• Saints: 7.4 wins (-2.4)
• Giants: 5.8 wins (-2.8)
• Titans: 6.2 wins (-3.2)
• Bears: 8.6 wins (-3.6)
• Jags: 8.3 wins (-4.3)
• Niners: 11.0 wins (-5.0)
• Jets: 10.1 wins (-5.1)
• Browns: 8.7 wins (-5.7)

Pittsburgh’s 1.4 actual wins over what they were projected to by NFL.com’s algorithm isn’t as sexy as the revelation that Minnesota was in 2024 or Washington’s breakout, but it was better than two-thirds of the league. Besides those two franchises shared something in common. Their respective starting quarterbacks popped in ways few expected. Much of the anger directed at Tomlin stems from a few factors. One of those reasons has been the stream of average to mediocre quarterbacks, which is a factor out of his control.

The span between playoff wins. Steelers fans are getting restless. This generation of fans grew up on legends of six Super Bowls and their expectations are high. The team appears to have stagnated while the reality is that they improved incrementally from 2023 to 2024. 

Their red-hot start to the season created the impression that this was a top-five team. That was an illusion created by their quirky schedule and playing above expectations. After their three-game losing streak, fans who expected a 12-13 win season could only blame Tomlin and the offense.

The Russell Wilson and Justin Fields debate created dissension among the Steelers fan base very early on. Fields’ benching radicalized a segment of the fanbase against Tomlin. Fields is viewed around the league as a lump of coal who can crystallize into a diamond under the perfect conditions despite evidence to the contrary signaling that he’s a league-average signal caller on his best day. Unfortunately, those conditions didn’t exist in Pittsburgh where the pass blocking was shaky and the receiving corps was on par with what he had his few seasons in Chicago.  

Brian Flories’ job transforming the Vikings defense created frustrations within the Steelers community who believe the Steelers former defensive analyst could have done the same thing with the Steelers and their personnel. Instead, Pittsburgh has strayed from their aggressive blitz-heavy schemes, and in the latter half of the season their more cerebral defense failed to live up to its rep. The five leaders in blitz percentage this season were the Vikings, Lions, Bucs, Chiefs, and Commanders in that order. The Steelers were a middle-of-the-pack defense in generating sacks, pressure rate, and blitz percentage while T.J. Watt vanished for large portions of the season. 

With all that said, the five-game losing streak to end the season was a bad look. If they mustered enough offense to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5, Pittsburgh would have snapped the aforementioned losing streak, and most importantly have earned themselves a favorable matchup against the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round. 

Winning a playoff game is an elixir. It’s partially why the Vikings sound willing to move on from Sam Darnold after a 14-win season. The utter lack of fight he showed in the final weeks of the season was so viscerally hard to watch that most fans ignored the Steelers finishing seven wins over their projected total, a league-high. 

They've fallen behind by at least 14 in their last four playoff matchups. However, this was not supposed to be a playoff team under league-average coaching. Perspective was lost during the 10-3 start. The most important thing is that Tomlin had all arrows pointing up from their 2023 season when their offense was fifth-worst in the NFL.

They were expected to win as many games as the Chicago Bears who were led by a coach who was in over his head. Seven teams were projected to win more games than Pittsburgh in the AFC. The New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals were among those teams. Mike McDaniels, Zac Taylor, and Kevin Stefanski were not on the hot seat. 

Mike Tomlin addresses his future

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Mike Tomlin addressed the rumors of his job security by refusing to give them any air. In other words, it was classic Tomlin.

"I have no response to that," Tomlin said during his media availability. "I understand the nature of what it is that we do, the attention and criticism that comes with it. I embrace it, to be honest with you. I enjoy the urgency that comes with what I do and what we do. I don't make excuses for failure. I own it. But I also feel like I'm capable. As long as I'm afforded an opportunity to do that, I'll continue. But I certainly understand [the fans'] frustrations. Probably more important than that, I share it."

All indications are that Tomlin isn't going anywhere. Adam Schefter, who raised the possibility of Tomlin being traded, believes management will stick it out with him through another offseason. ESPN’s Kevin Clark pointed to the precedent on the few occasions when the Steelers have hired new head coaches to illustrate the unlikelihood that the Steelers move on from Tomlin. In the past, this organization doesn’t make spur-of-the-moment coaching changes and start their vetting of the buzzy candidates this late in the offseason.

According to reporting, or the lack thereof, Pittsburgh has done such legwork.

Arthur Smith leaving…on a Jets plane?

The member of Tomlin’s staff who should face the most scrutiny is offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. His unimaginative offenses, conservative play calling, obsession with toss plays to Najee Harris, red zone playcalls, and inability to elevate the offense have made him a target of ire. Which of course explains why the New York Jets would be intrigued. According to ESPN’s Dan Graziano, Arthur Smith is his pick to lead the Jets in 2025:

"I could certainly see the Jets ending up with Aaron Glenn or Brian Flores, but I've already predicted those guys to land elsewhere. Smith was a candidate of interest to Jets owner Woody Johnson back in 2021, when the team hired Saleh. But at the time, Johnson was serving as ambassador to the United Kingdom and was not directly involved in the search. The Jets also considered bringing in Smith and adding him to their offensive staff last year before the Steelers hired him as their coordinator."

The two organizations couldn’t further apart in terms of credibility, but when there are only 32 head coaching jobs available in the league, beggars can’t be choosers. Smith’s three seasons in Atlanta were disappointing and he was uninspiring in Pittsburgh which is what makes Graziano’s prediction fascinating. Smith boosted Pittsburgh’s ground attack even before the Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson, but nothing in Smith’s track record indicates that he should be a leading candidate for a team that needs a spark. 

The Steelers offense Smith operated, finished 23rd in yards per game (25th in 2023), and 16th in points (28th in 2023) while being supported by a defense that led the NFL in takeaways. 

A second season of Smith at the helm may be more beneficial than resetting the scheme, but the most positive angle is that he could provide another jolt to the offense if he has more clay to mold in 2025.  If the Jets did decide to snatch Smith from Pittsburgh, it would provide Tomlin with another opportunity to rejuvenate their melatonin-laced offensive play calling. Unfortunately, Tomlin’s offensive coordinator hires have been less than impressive over the last decade. An ideal coordinator for Pittsburgh should be someone who has ideas for scheming innovative passing attacks. Smith fell short on that count this year, and it wasn’t all the personnel’s fault.